Video | Weekly Market Interpretation: Gold VS Bitcoin, "Anxiety Tax" on the Cliff of the Global Economy

Original text: The Round Trip

Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews

In an era of crypto and AI, stories that really matter are often hidden outside the hustle and bustle. To find these neglected truths, PANONY and Web3.com Ventures jointly launched the English video program "The Round Trip". Hosted by John Scianna and Cassidy Huang, the show will lead viewers to explore the drastic fluctuations in the crypto market, the absurdity and breakthroughs in AI technology, the success or failure logic of venture capital, and the moments of market collapse that are often billions of dollars. From Silicon Valley to Asia, go deep into market noise, decode the narrative behind it, and dig deep truths beyond the news titles.

Is the global economy standing on the edge of a cliff?

The dramatic escalation and rapid easing of the tariff war have become the focus of the market in the past week. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% at the beginning of the year to 2.8%, the lowest level since the epidemic in 2020. This adjustment directly points to two core pressures: the continued increase in US tariff policies on China and the risk of breaking the global trade chain - Flexport data shows that the volume of US container orders on China plummeted by more than 60% in three weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index climbed to its 40-year peak, with gold futures prices breaking through $3,500 per ounce for the first time. What is interesting is that Bitcoin rose 10% against the trend, hitting a high of $94,000. Is this the market adapting to the "new normal" or the calm before the storm?

"Retreat to advance" in tariff game between China and the United States

A subtle twist in the smoke of the trade war: US Treasury Secretary Basit publicly admitted that "the deadlock on China is unsustainable", and the White House sent signals that it may reduce tariffs on some goods from the current high to 50%-65%. President Trump also stated that high tariffs may be cut significantly, but will not be completely cancelled, and emphasized that he will not show weakness when negotiating with China.

John believes that although it seems that the United States is the first to loosen, in fact, China began to make arrangements as early as 2018 when Trump first imposed tariffs on Chinese products, including restricting the export of key rare earths and transferring factories to Vietnam and Mexico to avoid tariff barriers. Trump's trading strategy has long been traced, and China has long had plans for this and has sufficient bargaining chips to fight back.

Bitcoin Rises and ETF Development

This week, the crypto market ushered in obvious volatility. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded the largest single-day inflow since January, with a cumulative net inflow of more than $912 million this week, reflecting a significant recovery in investor sentiment and boosting the price of Bitcoin to exceed $93,000.

In addition, Bitcoin rose 11% this week, surpassing Google for the first time, becoming the fifth largest asset in the world.

Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin and Cardano also followed suit. In the last cycle, many people predicted that the price of Ethereum will reach US$10,000. Although the current price of Ethereum is still hovering around US$1,000/2,000, many investors are still looking forward to the realization of this goal. With the positive news on Ethereum ETF, market confidence in it has recovered. The Ethereum ETF has recorded its highest net inflow since February, with more than $150 million inflows in the past few days alone.

In addition, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission approved Huaxia Fund to cooperate with OSL to launch a pledged Ethereum ETF. This is the world's first Ethereum ETF that can directly receive pledge rewards. It not only tracks prices, but also brings pledge returns to investors. This move marks Hong Kong's accelerated crypto financial innovation and strives to build a global crypto hub. In contrast, ETFs in the US market are currently limited to tracking prices and failing to provide pledge income.

Crypto Assets As Hedge Tool for Market Volatility

Another major event this week was the $3.6 billion Bitcoin acquisition plan initiated by Brendan Lotnick. As the son of U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lotnick, Brendan's plan will hold about 42,000 bitcoins, ranking among the world's third largest Bitcoin reserve. Partners include SoftBank, Tether (which contributed more than $1.5 billion in Bitcoin) and Bitfinex. The overall strategy imitates MicroStrategy's holding model - continuously increasing its holdings of Bitcoin through issuing stocks and debts.

The newly formed company is led by Strike CEO Jack Mallers, who has actively promoted the popularity of Bitcoin in El Salvador and is considered one of the most determined believers of Bitcoin. It is generally believed that he has the potential to replicate Michael Saylor's successful model and may even end up holding hundreds of thousands of bitcoins.

Unlike the crypto market's poor performance during the 2020 global financial crisis, Bitcoin performed quite solidly this time. Although it had fallen briefly when gold rose, it quickly rebounded. This shows that Bitcoin is becoming a mature hedging tool, and gold will continue to play its traditional hedge role.

Interestingly, a "gold automaton" appeared in the shopping malls in Shanghai, which can directly melt gold and then transfer the money to the WeChat account within 30 minutes. This convenient gold trading method is not common in the United States.

Regulatory trend and market game

The US SEC welcomes new chairman Paul Atkins, who will attend the SEC's cryptocurrency roundtable on Friday. This meeting focuses on crypto asset custody, and subsequent meetings will discuss RWA on-chain and DeFi. Atkins served as a SEC member from 2002 to 2008 and is known for supporting financial innovation. He often shares his views on crypto asset regulation at crypto conferences, so the crypto market is happy with his appointment.

There are currently 72 crypto-related ETFs awaiting approval, covering a variety of digital assets, including XRP, Litecoin, Solana, and meme coins like Dogecoin and even derivatives like 2X Melania.

Interestingly, Trump has extended an olive branch to Trump holders: the top 220 can attend the Washington Golf Club dinner, and the top 25 are eligible for VIP meetings.

China's acceleration in AI competition

In the field of artificial intelligence, Beijing held a special marathon on April 19, with 20 humanoid robots challenging 21 kilometers together with 12,000 human athletes, of which "Tiangong Ultra" completed the race in 2 hours and 40 minutes. Behind this technology show is China's ambition to promote the application of AI life.

In addition, at the Shanghai Auto Show on April 23, BMW announced a partnership with Chinese startup DeepSeek to plan to apply DeepSeek's AI system to new cars that will enter the Chinese market later this year. This shows that BMW is actively adapting to the needs of the Chinese market and strengthening cooperation with Chinese technology companies to maintain competitiveness.

It is worth noting that a few years ago, DeepSeek was just a hedge fund that used AI and machine learning to conduct quantitative trading. With the rise of Big Language Model (LLM) in 2021, they transformed and developed AI models and have now become one of the world's important AI companies. Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun also met with the DeepSeek team when he visited China last week to discuss plans to customize chips for the Chinese market.

The upcoming Token 2049 conference is expected to have an optimistic atmosphere, with institutional funds flowing into the crypto market, and Bitcoin ETFs changing the overall market sentiment. Last month, Dubai also announced plans to put more than $150 billion in real estate assets on the chain. This conference will set the tone for the industry direction in the next few quarters, and more crypto projects may explore decentralized LLM and AI tools in the future.