Trading moment: Risk assets rebound after Trump "showing weakness"; Standard Chartered Bank and Arthur Hayes are optimistic about BTC hitting $200,000

1. Market Observation

Keywords: Trump, ETH, BTC

Trump recently expressed his intent to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, and admitted that tariffs on Chinese exports were too high, suggesting that the tax rate would be significantly reduced. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, and Putin has proposed to stop the offensive against Ukraine on the current frontline as part of his efforts to reach a peace deal with Trump. These easing signals directly affect the performance of safe-haven assets. Spot gold fell about $160 from yesterday's high of $3,500, and is now quoted at $3,339 per ounce.

Crypto assets have seen a sharp rebound. Bitcoin broke through the key resistance level of $90,000 yesterday and rose above $94,000 this morning. Its market value has surpassed Silver and Amazon to reach the sixth place in global asset market value. 10x Research points out that the current key resistance area is between $94,000 and $95,000. Greeks.live community traders believe that after Bitcoin breaks through $90,000, the next target will be 93,000/$100,000; while cautious people are paying attention to possible pullbacks, and it is expected that a significant increase will be expected after the level of $84,000 or $74,000 will be backtested. Cantor Fitzgerald, led by Brandon Lutnick, son of U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, is working with several institutions to build a multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin acquisition platform, which will become another powerful buyer of Bitcoin.

In addition, Arthur Hayes is optimistic about the future market of Bitcoin, believing that Bitcoin will get rid of its relationship with technology stocks and become a safe-haven asset with gold again. It is expected that Bitcoin may climb to $200,000 after it exceeds $110,000, triggering funds from Bitcoin to altcoins. Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick is also optimistic, expecting Bitcoin could hit an all-time high if market concerns about Fed independence continue, and predicts it will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

In terms of altcoins, Solana rebounded with the market's rise and rose above $150 this morning. This rise was supported by institutional funds. Galaxy Digital exchanged $100 million ETH for SOL, US listed company DeFi Dev Corp increased its holdings of $11.5 million SOL, and blockchain payment provider Astra Fintech also set up a $100 million fund to support Solana's development in Asia. Under this atmosphere, the AI ​​Meme sector rebounded the most, ZEREBRO's daily gain doubled, and Fartcoin's market value exceeded US$1 billion.

In terms of macroeconomics, US Treasury Secretary Bescent said the tariff deadlock is unsustainable and the situation is expected to ease. Trump's attitude towards the Fed has also eased, saying, "We think the Fed should lower interest rates, and now is the perfect time. We hope our chairman can (cut interest rates) in advance or on time." At the same time, he was also satisfied with the performance of the stock market's rise. According to CME's "Feder Observation" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 91.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 32.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 61.8%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 5.3%.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on April 23)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $93,203.77 (-0.45% within the year), daily spot trading volume $55.665 billion

• Ethereum: $1,794.45 (-46.28% during the year), daily spot trading volume was $25.673 billion

• Corruption Index: 72 (greed)

• Average GAS: BTC 1.05 sat/vB, ETH 0.67 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 63.3%, ETH 7.4%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: DEEP, XRP, BTC, AERGO, TT

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.005

• The sector rises and falls: MemeAI sector rises 14.52%, while the AI ​​sector rises 13.81%

• 24-hour liquidation data : 160,939 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$603 million, and its BTC liquidation was US$298 million, ETH liquidation was US$125 million, and SOL liquidation was US$19.13 million.

• BTC medium and long-term trend channel : upper route ($87457.52), lower route ($85725.69)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel : upper line ($1652.44), lower line ($1619.72)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- and long-term bullish trend, and vice versa is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly in the range or in the short term, it is a bottom or top state.

3.ETF flow direction (EST as of April 22)

• Bitcoin ETF: $936 million

• Ethereum ETF: $38.74 million

4. Looking forward today

• DTCC launches the tokenized collateral management platform "AppChain", which is expected to be demonstrated on April 23 local time

• Zora (ZORA) tokens begin to open trading on Binance Alpha

• PancakeSwap plans to implement CAKE Token Economics 3.0

• Lending and lending agreement Dolomite will undergo TGE on April 24, airdropping 20% ​​DOLO

• Coinbase International launches four types of perpetual contract transactions including WCT and BABY

• Binance will terminate withdrawal services for AMB, CLV, STMX and VITE on April 24

• Binance will launch INIT on April 24 and open INIT/USDT, INIT/USDC, INIT/BNB, INIT/FDUSD and INIT/TRY trading pairs

• The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book on Economic Conditions. (02:00 on April 24)

• Karrat (KARRAT) unlocks about 21.25 million tokens, with a ratio of 8.79% to the current circulation, and is worth about $1.3 million.

• Murasaki (MURA) unlocks about 10 million tokens, with a ratio of 1.00% to current circulation, worth about $4 million

• Eigenlayer (EIGEN) unlocks approximately 1.29 million tokens, with a ratio of 0.53% to current circulation, and is worth approximately US$1.1 million

The biggest increase in the top 500 market value today: ZEREBRO rose 151.13%, DEEP rose 126.82%, TURBO rose 50.83%, ARC rose 48.62%, and ALCH rose 39.56%.

5. Hot News

• Bloomberg: U.S. strategic bitcoin reserves may disclose details in the coming weeks

• Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows of US$936 million yesterday, lasting for 3 days

• Today's Panic and Greed Index rose to 72, and the market sentiment is in a greedy state

• Bitcoin surpasses Silver and Amazon to rise to sixth place in global asset market capitalization

• Trump: No intention to fire Powell, but the Fed should lower interest rates

• Trump admits US tariffs on imported goods from China are too high, and is expected to be significantly reduced

• The three major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply, all rising by more than 2%.

• Cantor to launch a $3 billion crypto joint venture with SoftBank and Tether to invest in Bitcoin

• Coinbase will launch tokenbot (CLANKER) on the Base network

• US listed company DeFi Dev Corp (formerly Janover) increases its holdings of $11.5 million SOL

• A giant whale once again extracted 1,000 BTC from Binance, and currently holds 19,112 BTC

• A giant whale bought 4 million Fartcoin tokens and 3.5 million US dollars of TRUMP tokens

• Bernstein: The macro environment is favorable to Bitcoin, and "digital gold" will welcome five major catalysts

• BTC/Nasdaq ratio reaches 4.96, close to historical highs

• Metaplanet currently holds 4855 BTC and plans to hold 10,000 BTC at the end of the year

• Ouyi will launch spot trading pairs of five currencies including KISHU and MAX on April 29

• Upbit will launch DEEP in the Korean won market