Trading Moment: Gold hits a new high before PCE data hits, and the new OpenAI model triggers the Ghibli concept

1. Market Observation

Keywords: Ghibli, ETH, BTC

Spot gold broke through $3,070 per ounce on the Asian session on Friday, setting a record high, with an increase of more than 16% this year. New York gold futures station is $3,100 per ounce. Many investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have raised their gold target prices. Goldman Sachs believes that central bank purchase demand and gold ETF capital inflows are the main driving factors. JPMorgan Chase analysts predict that gold may hit the $4,000 mark in the future. Meanwhile, OpenAI's latest multimodal model GPT-4o has set off a craze on social media to remake MEME pictures in Miyazaki's animation style. Its excellent image generation ability, especially in replicating Ghibli style, has driven the $Ghibli token to rise rapidly.

In terms of market performance, Bitcoin and Ethereum show a differentiated trend. BTC ETFs have steadily inflows of US$944.9 million since March 14, while ETH ETFs have 112.1 million outflows during the same period, reflecting the obvious differences in institutional investors' attitudes towards the two major cryptocurrencies. Judging from the on-chain data, Glassnode tracking shows that since March 11, Bitcoin Whale has increased its holdings by more than 129,000 BTC, the largest increase since late August 2024. It is worth noting that QCP Capital analysis pointed out that although GameStop plans to raise $1.3 billion for BTC allocation, market sentiment is still sluggish. From a valuation perspective, there is still a lot of room for development in the cryptocurrency market. Analyst PlanB pointed out that compared with the $20 trillion gold market, Bitcoin with a market value of $2 trillion is significantly undervalued, especially considering that Bitcoin’s 120-year scarcity ratio (S2F) far exceeds that of gold in 60 years. Currently, the market forecast platform Polymarket expects Bitcoin’s target price in 2025 to be US$138,000, which still has about 60% room for upward compared to the current price. Market participants believe BTC needs to hold key price areas to maintain a bull market, including its previous high of $73,800 and its 2021 peak of $69,000. The "lowest price forecast" model created by network economist Timothy Peterson shows that BTC has a 95% chance of not falling below $69,000, and the annual average price of $76,000 is also seen as an important support.

However, uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment is bringing new tests to the market. The annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States remained at 2.8% in the fourth quarter, the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of GDP exceeded expectations by 2.4%, and the number of unemployment benefits applicants fell to 224,000, indicating that the economic fundamentals are still stable. However, Boston Fed Chairman Collins warned that a new round of tariff measures could inevitably push up inflation levels and recommended that current interest rates remain unchanged. In addition, the potential trade policy adjustments of the Trump administration have also brought new uncertainty to the market, prompting investors to be more cautious in making decisions and pay close attention to policy trends and market changes. The market will pay attention to the US PCE inflation data released tonight to further judge the health of the economy and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 28)

• Bitcoin: USD 86,192.01 (-7.91% within the year), daily spot trading volume USD 23.855 billion

• Ethereum: $1,924.41 (-42.28% during the year), daily spot trading volume is $14.935 billion

• Corruption index: 44 (neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC 1.06 sat/vB, ETH 0.38 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 61.2%, ETH 8.3%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: WAL, XRP, SAFE, ORCA, CARV

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9712

• Sector rise and fall: Meme sector fell 6.88%, GameFi sector fell 6.71%

• 24-hour liquidation data: 133,772 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$314 million, with a BTC liquidation of US$46.86 million and ETH liquidation of US$92.43 million

3.ETF flow direction (EST as of March 27)

• Bitcoin ETF: $89.0638 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$4.2159 million

4. Looking forward today

• 21Shares plans to liquidate two Bitcoin futures and Ethereum futures around March 28

• Binance's first batch of voting coins ends, and the "voting" pool contains 21 tokens

The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in February (20:30 on March 28)

• Actual: Not announced/Previous value: 2.6% / Expected: 2.7%

The biggest increase in the top 500 market value today: CRO rose 7.99%, ORCA rose 7.11%, TON rose 5.64%, FORM rose 2.93%, and BERA rose 1.73%.

5. Hot News

• Binance Financial Management, one-click buying coins, flash exchange, leverage launch MUBARAK, BROCCOLI714, TUT, BANANAS31

• Bithumb will launch ORCA won trading pair

• Binance Alpha has been launched on GhibliCZ (Ghibli) and Ghiblification (Ghibli)

• Arthur Hayes: April will be the turning point in the market, and global liquidity will explode again

• South Carolina withdraws pledge lawsuit against Coinbase

• Spot gold hit a new high, reaching $3,060

• Binance announces the first batch of voting launch results: Mubarak, CZ'S Dog, Tutorial and Banana For Scale will be launched

• Ethereum test network Pectra is tentatively scheduled to be online on the main network on April 30

• Ethereum L2 network Corn, which focuses on Bitcoin DeFi, launched airdrop query page

• Binance Launchpool launches GUNZ (GUN)

• Binance Alpha launches KiloEx (KILO)

• Glassnode: Bitcoin Whale has increased its holdings by more than 129,000 BTC since March 11

• Incoming SEC Chairman Paul Atkins owns $6 million in crypto-related assets

• QCP Capital: The market generally lacks short-term optimism, and the upward space will still be limited

• Deribit: BTC and ETH options exceeding $14.3 billion in Q1 will expire

• 2025 Hurun Global Rich List: Musk ranked the richest man in the world for the rest of the time, and Zhao Changpeng continued to rank as the richest man in the crypto field with a wealth of 160 billion yuan

• Upbit will be launched in WAL in the Korean won, BTC, USDT market