Trading Moment: CZ brings BNB upstream market, global central banks usher in a "super week"

1. Market Observation

Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC

Bitcoin ended with a positive line last week, with BTC rebounding nearly 10 points from its low of $76,600. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that it is difficult to judge whether Bitcoin will resume upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to close short positions at the current stage. He pointed out that Bitcoin may need to go through an eight-month consolidation period. The market is currently on the sidelines, and the ETF market lacks the motivation to "buy on dips". Most ETF funds flow into hedge funds driven by arbitrage, and the continued sluggish capital rates have also suppressed the willingness to further deploy capital.

Bitfinex analysts believe that the current adjustment is a normal "stool wash" behavior. Although multiple technical indicators turn bearish, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains an important factor in price. Due to the high correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, its trend may need to be simultaneously bottomed with the stock market (especially the S&P 500). He pointed out that $72,000 to $73,000 constitutes a key support range, but Bitcoin’s next move will be dominated by macro factors such as global Treasury yields and stock market trends. Although the impact of the trade war has been digested by the market to a certain extent, the ongoing economic pressure may further hit market sentiment. It is worth noting that based on historical seasonal laws, Internet economist Timothy Peterson predicts that Bitcoin is expected to hit a new high by June, with a median target price of $126,000.

Economist Peter Schiff warned that a 12% decline in the Nasdaq index could indicate a bigger drop in Bitcoin. He analyzed that if the Nasdaq enters a bear market and falls 40%, the price of Bitcoin may fall to $20,000. In contrast, gold showed a negative correlation with Nasdaq, up 13% since December 16, 2023.

In terms of market dynamics, the latest poll by Data For Progress shows that 51% of U.S. voters oppose the government's inclusion of cryptocurrencies in its strategic reserves. Meanwhile, the number of bitcoins held by the hacker group Lazarus Group has reached 13,562, making North Korea the third largest Bitcoin holding entity in the world. On the other hand, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng spent BNB to purchase TST and mubarak on the weekend, which may lead to a recovery in the BNB chain market. GMGN data shows that 7 Meme coin projects have market value exceeding US$1 million in the past 24 hours, of which mubarak has risen to a maximum of nearly US$150 million.

From March 17 to 23, major central banks around the world will usher in a highly-watched "Super Week", and many central banks including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, etc. will hold monetary policy meetings one after another. The market generally expects central banks to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors need to pay close attention to central banks' judgment on the economic outlook. Especially in the context of uncertainty in Trump’s trade policy, central bank attitudes may have an important impact on market sentiment.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 17)

• Bitcoin: $83,149.42 (-11.15% within the year), daily spot trading volume $24.523 billion

• Ethereum: $1,895.97 (-43.22% during the year), daily spot trading volume is $10.533 billion

• Corruption Index: 32 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.48 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 60.77%, ETH 8.4%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, AUCTION, BTC, STMX, VANA

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.998

• Sector rise and fall: crypto market sectors generally fell, CeFi sector rose 2.71%, and RWA sector rose 0.72%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 94,553 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$257 million, and its BTC liquidation was US$95.26 million and ETH liquidation was US$44.77 million.

3.ETF flow direction (EST as of March 14)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$68.41 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$35.3 million

4. Important date (Hong Kong time)

Nvidia holds the GTC conference until March 21. (March 17)

Monthly retail sales rate in the United States in February (March 17 at 20:30)

• Actual: Not announced/Previous value: -0.90% / Expected: 0.6%

Japan's central bank target interest rate from March 19. (March 19)

Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun delivered a keynote speech. (01:00 on March 19)

EIA crude oil inventories (10,000 barrels) in the United States to March 14 (22:30 on March 19)

• Actual: Not announced/Previous value: 144.8 / Expected: Not announced

The Federal Reserve FOMC released a summary of interest rate decisions and economic expectations. (02:00 on March 20)

The U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision from March 19 (upper limit) (02:00 on March 20)

• Actual: Not announced/Previous value: 4.50% / Expected: 4.5%

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference. (02:30 on March 20)

UK central bank interest rate decision from March 20 (20:00 on March 20)

• Actual: Not announced/Previous value: 4.50% / Expected: 4.5%

The number of people who requested initial unemployment benefits in the United States to March 15 (10,000) (20:30 on March 20)

• Actual: Not announced/Previous value: 22 / Expected: 22.5

5. Hot News

Preview of this week | US SEC Cryptocurrency Working Group holds its first roundtable; CME plans to launch SOL futures

Macro outlook this week: Trump's "bitter trick" forces the Fed to cut interest rates, super central bank attacks on week

Data: Tokens such as MRS, FTN, QAI will be unlocked in large amounts, of which the MRS unlock is worth approximately US$97.4 million

Jin Shi: The rumor of Trump may use sovereign funds to buy Bitcoin

US Treasury Secretary: No guarantee that the United States will not fall into recession

Analysts: Bull market may come back in June, with Bitcoin’s median target price expected to hit $126,000

Lazarus Group already owns about 13,562 BTC, pushing North Korea's Bitcoin holdings to surpass El Salvador and Bhutan

Analysts: BTC's four-year halving cycle is still an important factor affecting price trends, with key support ranges currently ranging from US$72,000 to US$73,000

CZ suspected of responding to buying TST and mubarak: do some tests on weekends

Early Uber investors: BTC will not be replaced as a value transfer agreement, but the market is monopolized by some giants

Or the address belonging to the founder of DFG has hoarded $18.68 million in UNI and MKR

Pakistan sets up cryptocurrency committee to regulate blockchain and digital assets

Trump's family crypto project WLFI buys $2 million in AVAX and MNT respectively 2 hours ago

NFT transaction volume fell 7.84% month-on-month to US$109.2 million in the past seven days, with the number of buyers and sellers rising by more than 400%.

Cumulative net inflows of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have fallen to their lowest level since January 2

Telegram founder Pavel Durov is allowed to leave France for Dubai, TON rises 20%

Sonic Labs AC: plans to launch an exchange within the year, which will compete with Binance and Coinbase

Binance Alpha launches mubarak

Analysts: The key to Bitcoin avoiding further declines is that the closing price cannot fall below $81,000 this week

10x Research: Bitcoin is "very likely" to consolidate again for 8 months

Base eco-game project Henlo Kart has contract loopholes, and HENLO tokens fall 96.5%

"Crypto Tsar" David Sacks sold over $200 million in digital assets through his individuals and his company before taking office