Telegram founder returns, will TON change his post for the second spring?

The founder of Telegram, Pavel Durov, was arrested at a French airport on August 25, 2014. TG was the cornerstone of the TON ecosystem. The TON ecosystem and the currency price experienced a round of plunge, from $6.7 to $5. Then, due to the market conditions, the ecological currency price reached $3.4. All ecological indicators have also been halved, down 50% compared with August 24.

Yesterday, on March 15, Pavel Durov was allowed to leave France and he was returning to Dubai. The TON Foundation, developers, and the community are all excited about it. For example, @CatizenAI launched a carnival celebration to celebrate his return.

Let me observe the specific impact of Pavel Durov's return on the TON ecology through three dimensions:

1. TVL Changes

2. On-chain activity

3. Ecological currency price

Before analyzing, let’s review the important events:

- On August 25, 2024, Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov was arrested at a French airport

- August 28, 2024 Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was escorted to Paris Court

- Telegram founder Durov was prosecuted on August 29, 2024 and released under judicial supervision, prohibiting his departure from French territory; TON Society's open letter supporting Pavel Durov has received more than 3.2 million signatures

- September 6, 2024 Pavel Durov: Telegram is preparing to exit markets that are incompatible with the platform

- On December 7, 2024, Telegram founder Pavel Durov appeared in Paris for trial, saying that he trusted the French judicial system

- January 8, 2025 Telegram founder Pavel Durov reiterated that the core value of the platform is not affected by the US election cycle

- French prosecutor said on February 6, 2025 that the Pavel Durov case will not be heard for at least one year, and settlement negotiations are too early

- On March 15, 2025, Telegram founder Pavel Durov has been allowed to leave France and is returning to Dubai

The following formal analysis

1/TVL

It can be clearly seen that TON's TVL rose by 18m yesterday, which is also the largest increase this month. Compared with other chains, this increase is obviously beyond the average performance.

In addition, from the perspective of TON's main protocols, the highest increase is STON.fi, EVAA Protocol, which rose by about 5m.

2/On-chain Metrics | On-chain Metrics

In terms of Daily Transaction, yesterday's trading volume probably returned to the level in early March, and the increased trading volume mainly comes from the interaction of DEX.

In terms of active addresses, the number of DEX addresses increased by 3,000 addresses yesterday. *Note that one address can participate in multiple projects

In terms of meme launchapd, transaction volume & users rose to the level about a week ago, mainly from Blum's transaction volume & users.

3.1/Ecosystem Tokens | Ecosystem Tokens

There are 52 tokens in the last 24hr price increase of more than 10%. Among them, the tokens are resistance-dog, paper-plane, mittens-2, and gentleman.

3.2/Group by Market Cap | By Market Cap

The prices in the 24hr and 7d have been rising recently. Among them, tokens less than 1m have the highest increase. In addition, for tokens less than 1m and greater than 100m, this increase has almost wiped out the decline of 1 month.

3.3/Group by Category | By Category

The growth rate of DeFi and Meme performed the best in the four groups, with the recent 24hr and 7d gains of 15-30%.

4/Summary Summary

Durov Pavel's return is undoubtedly a heart-boosting agent for the ecology, which is the most obvious from the perspective of TVL. However, from the perspective of on-chain active indicators, this impact is not particularly obvious. It is just returning to the previous relatively stable state and there is no sharp increase. This may also be related to the recent BSC market.

From the perspective of ecological tokens, although yesterday's increase has almost offset the decline in the past month, it is still lower than the price of the currency three months ago, and the boost effect is relatively limited.