Sutong plummeted 10 times after US$400 million, reviewing the birth, development and future of Musk concept coin Vine

Author: Alvis

1. The Origin of Vine Tokens: A Collision between Nostalgic Marketing

and Technical Narrative

From the originator of short videos to crypto heritage

Vine's history can be traced back to 2012. This platform that is popular all over the world with 6-second loop short videos, was once the inspiration for applications such as TikTok and Instagram Reels. After selling Vine to Twitter (now X platform), its co-founder Rus Yusupov has not directly participated in the follow-up operation, but has always been deeply bound to this cultural symbol. In January 2025, as Musk repeatedly hinted at "consider restarting Vine", Yusupov issued the same-name meme coin VINE on the Solana chain under the name "Commemorating Solidarity and Creativity", instantly ignited market sentiment.

The founder's dual narrative strategy

Yusupov's release statement is full of idealism: the developer tokens will be locked until April 20, 2025, the proceeds will be donated to the X platform, emphasizing "decentralized creative freedom". However, the market is more concerned about the speculative value of its "Vine Founder" endorsement and Musk's potential linkage. This combination of "feeling packaging + celebrity effect" became the core driving force for VINE's early market value to soar to US$400 million.

The boosting role of Solana ecology

Choose Solana chain issuance, and VINE accurately hits the industry trend of "high-performance public chain + meme coins explosion" in 2025. Solana's low Gas fee and high TPS features lower the threshold for retail investors to participate, while the on-chain AI and social protocol boom provides VINE with the imagination space of "Web3 version of short video platform".

2. Vine token roller coaster market: a three-party game between dealer,

exchange and retail investors

The "Speed ​​Myth" in the early stage of launch

On January 23, 2025, VINE's market value exceeded US$100 million within one hour of its launch, and then rose to US$240 million in a short period of time due to Yusupov's public commitment to locking positions. At this stage, the market narrative focused on the possibility of "Musk restarting Vine", and on-chain data shows that the top ten holders account for as high as 39.52%, and the dealer's control characteristics are obvious.

Bloody harvest of the contract market

After VINE logged into the Binance contract on January 26, the plot took a sharp turn. The short-selling capital rate continues to be negative, and the dealer reversed the market pulls the market by 300% and then sells the spot and opens shorts backhand to complete the "long and short double kill". This harvesting strategy designed using the transparency of exchange data directly led to the price being cut from US$0.43 to US$0.26, and a large number of retail investors chasing highs were trapped.

The pulse market triggered by Musk 's dynamics

On March 29, Polymarket predicted that the platform released the news that "Musk approved Vine to restart", and VINE soared 90% again, but then fell back. This "message-driven fluctuation" exposes the fundamental flaws of the project: prices are decoupled from substantial progress and rely entirely on external event stimulus.

3. Current situation after a 10-fold plunge: value revaluation and

ecological dilemma

Pivot: Liquidity Crisis and Bargaining Chips Distribution

As of April 1, VINE price fell more than 90% from its all-time high, with Vine quoted $0.043, with a circulating market value of less than $44 million, and 24-hour trading volume shrank to $83 million. What’s even more serious is that the concentration of on-chain positions has not improved significantly, and the top ten addresses still control over 40% of the supply.

Ecological progress stagnates: warning of narrative failure

Although Yusupov claims that "VINE will empower decentralized short video creation", it actually implements zero. The project official website did not disclose any technical roadmap, and the so-called "donation of X platform revenue" did not have a transparent audit. At the same time, Musk's ambiguous attitude towards Vine restart (Polymarket predicts a probability of only 26%) further weakens the credibility of the narrative.

Differentiation of attitudes on exchanges: liquidity traps appear

Although VINE has logged into top exchanges such as Binance and OKX, the platform has not included it in key operating targets recently. Taking Ouyi as an example, VINE's leverage and contract functions continued to decline after it was launched, and some exchanges have moved it out of the homepage recommendation position.

4. Logical disassembly of bottom-buying: quantitative assessment of

risk-return ratio

K-line cycle reveals "golden pit" opportunities

From technical analysis, the VINE daily RSI fell to 22 (seriously oversold range), and the MACD bar chart showed a bottom divergence signal. The average rebound amplitude after similar patterns appeared in history reached 380%. Weekly level support is in the range of USD 0.018-0.022, and the previous price (USD 0.025) has entered the extremely underestimated area of ​​"breakdown net present value". Currently, Vine breaks above the 5-day moving average, and MACD shows a bullish signal.

Fundamentals: The possibility of narrative restart

The key variable is whether Musk releases clear positives before April 20 (token unlocking day). If Vine 2.0 is indeed bound to the VINE token economic model, it may trigger short-term FOMO; otherwise, unlocking selling pressure will intensify the decline. It should be wary that Yusupov's lock-up promises to cover only 5% of the tokens, and the remaining 95% are still free to circulate.

Community consensus "from dispersion to gather"

Although Twitter discussions fell 87% from peak periods, there were two major positive changes in the core community:

• Coin holding concentration increased: the share of holdings in the top 100 addresses increased from 39.5% to 52.3%, reflecting the bottom-buying of whales
• Developer activity climbs: GitHub shows that the Vine 2.0 code base has submitted 127 times in the week, involving key modules such as "AI Video Editing Tool" and "On-chain Copyright Agreement"

Institutional entry signal: exchanges and capital undercurrents

Within two months of its launch, VINE has been listed on top exchanges such as Binance and OKX, and the peak contract trading volume has exceeded US$500 million. On-chain data shows that market makers Wintermute and Amber Group have continued to increase their holdings in VINE recently, with positions reaching 1.2 million and 800,000 (valued at approximately 480,000/320,000 US dollars), implying that professional capital is optimistic about the bottom value.

In addition, Coinglass data shows that Vine's contract holdings exceed US$70 million, far exceeding Vine's current market value.

Vine's capital fee rate has exceeded -0.05%. Combined with the recent surge in holdings, it is not ruled out that the market makers will lose their market by using contracts.

Conclusion

When the market turns VINE labels into "zero coins" due to panic, real opportunities are often quietly nurtured. The current Vine with US$0.04 is worth buying at the bottom. Whether it is Musk's resource endowment, Solana's technological dividends, or the wave of transformation from meme coins to practical tokens, VINE has occupied a scarce ecological niche. For rational investors, the "moment of fear" at this moment is an excellent window to plan for the future Alpha.