ETH Hangzhou On-site investigation: There is no hope for a new high in 3 years, see you in the next cycle

Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Standing at the end of Q1 2025, there is no doubt that the most frustrated crypto group is the "E Guard".

On the one hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell to its lowest point in the past five years since May 2020, with this number only 0.02193; on the other hand, Vitalik, the "soul character" of Ethereum, has been quite puzzled by the funny behavior of "learning to meow" by robot dogs, which has caused dissatisfaction among some people in the Ethereum community.

Now, in the "darkest moment of Ethereum" when the price fell below $1,800, the "ETH Hangzhou" activity is in full swing, and many developers and Ethereum community personnel are still enthusiastically participating in the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem in various ways. Odaily Planet Daily interviewed the people on the scene of "ETH Hangzhou" to listen to the development of the Ethereum ecosystem in their eyes.

When "the butt determines the head" has failed: 50% of people hold ETH less than 10 pieces, and 40% hold ETH less than 100 pieces

At the Demo Day scene of ETH Hangzhou, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a rough small sample questionnaire survey of the participants, with a cumulative sample size of about 10 people, including:

• Only 1 person has cleared ETH;
• The number of people holding 1-10 ETH accounts for 50%;
• The number of people holding 10-100 ETH accounts for 40%.

It is worth mentioning that @Solomon_NAHHH, who cleared ETH, mentioned that he had cleared ETH a year ago, and now some of his positions are on SUI; @0xBenniee, who holds a small amount of ETH, believes that the Ethereum ecosystem is extremely abstract; and among those who hold less than 100 ETH, @ConstantinGao revealed that he holds a large number of short positions in ETH.

ETH Ecological Development Stage: 70% of people believe that they have

entered middle age

In a small sample questionnaire survey of 10 people, there is a certain consensus on the viewpoint of this issue in the development stage of Ethereum ecosystem. in,

• 20% (2 people) believe that the Ethereum ecosystem is still young;
• 70% (7 people) believe that the Ethereum ecosystem has entered middle age;
• 10% (1 person) believe that the Ethereum ecosystem has entered the old age.

People who hold the first view mainly consider the technical route level, believe that the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its early stage in terms of the implementation of the technical route, and the implementation of many technical routes is still in the exploration stage; in contrast, people who believe that the Ethereum ecosystem has entered the old age mainly consider the token economy, and believe that from the ETH issuance time cycle and token operation stage, the Ethereum ecosystem has entered a relatively solidified old age stage.

People who believe that the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its middle-aged stage mainly look at the ecological development stage. Ethereum is currently in a relatively complete infrastructure construction. Except for the DeFi track, other sub-tracks have been falsified to varying degrees; capital liquidity and major encryption projects still regard the Ethereum main network or EVM environment as the main ecosystem.

Possibility of a new high price: There is no hope within 3 years, see you

in the next cycle

When asked about the question of "whether the ETH price can break through the previous all-time high of nearly $4,800 in 1-2 years, setting a new high", almost everyone was pessimistic, including the "E Guard" who entered the circle and came into contact with ETH in 2019 and the "ETH Eco Buidler" engaged in the development of the Ethereum ecosystem DeFi project.

Overall, the time nodes where the market price highs of ETH appear are mainly divided into the following three categories:

• The first category, 2-3 years may be possible. Crypto KOL, Day1Global manager @RubyWang, Crypto KOL, KiteAI CMO@0xLaughing believes that the new highs in ETH prices mainly depend on new asset issuance methods or new asset types that lead the market.
• The second category is to start in 5 years and look at it. Day1Global manager @Starzq believes that it is difficult to set new highs by relying solely on ETH. Only by relying on liquidity spillover of BTC or edge innovation in the Ethereum ecosystem can we hope to achieve this. Zhejiang University Blockchain Association @Freya believes that hope may be placed on community development or technological breakthroughs.
• The third category is unknown, and it mainly depends on application development. @ArtistZhou, @33357xyz, @WONG_SSH, @0xPhiloA and others believe that the new high market price of ETH depends on when the blood-sucking ETH L2 will be killed, the implementation of the technical roadmap such as Based Rollup, and the mature applications after all NFT players, GameFi players and even DeFi players who took over the previous highs.

In addition, @Solomon_NAHHH believes that there is another possibility that the US ETH ETF can be fully cleared and sold, and transferred to the Eastern power to take over, which may be a certain possibility of hitting a new high.

@ConstantinGao, who holds a large ETH short order, pointed out that the main reason for the current unfavorable ETH price performance is the bankruptcy of narratives such as "digital oil" and "world computers". Now Ethereum has become a block space rental business. After experiencing events such as L2 expansion, it is not only sucked blood, but also further reduced consumption costs, resulting in the token's value storage function no longer being recognized by the market. In this regard, it is completely different from BTC, which focuses on the concept of "digital gold". After the latter abandoned its payment positioning, the market has accepted its latest positioning. In addition, he mentioned that although the price performance of ETH is not optimistic in the short term (2 to 3 years), judging by the past development stage of the Internet industry, Ethereum still has great potential for development. Driven by mature applications, its token consumption demand may experience huge growth from the early dial-up Internet access stage to short video and live streaming stages. At that time, the price of ETH may gradually rise.

Summary: ETH is not irreplaceable, but it is still the main battlefield

of crypto

Among the young faces, the author saw that there were still many young faces active at the event site of the ETH ecology. Although the price of ETH is sluggish, the ecosystem is highly decentralized, and there are still old leeks and latecomers sticking to the Ethereum ecosystem. As for the price, it can only be left to time to judge.