OSL trading moment: BTC over-the-counter supply contraction and institutional entry, ETH breaks test market confidence

1. Market Observation

Keywords: Lido, ETH, BTC

The cryptocurrency market has shown encouraging signs in recent days, with Bitcoin being optimistic about potentially hitting new highs due to its enhanced correlation with gold. However, Bitcoin is currently volatile around $95,000 and breaking below key trend lines, coupled with a 70% reduction in off-market supply since 2021, which may herald a long-term supply shock and price repositioning.

In terms of project development, Lido launches Ethereum Liquidity Staking Agreement Version 3, Uniswap launches its Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain Unichain, and Solana's continued growth and increased institutional adoption make it expected to become a strong competitor to Bitcoin . Although the Ethereum market has shown resilience in a downward altcoin environment and is driven by growth mainly by retail investors, its price has recently fallen below the $2,600 mark, causing market concerns.

From the perspective of institutional dynamics, the stablecoin market is expected to reach US$16.97 billion by 2025. Visa plans to cooperate with Fold to launch a Bitcoin reward credit card, Japanese company Gumi also plans to purchase US$6.5 million in Bitcoin, and at the same time, Japanese stock Metaplanet is in Bitcoin Under the background of accumulation, it rose by 3,575% in one year. However, it is worth noting that investors' concerns about meme coins may affect the legality of Bitcoin as an asset.

2. Key data (as of 09:40 HKT on February 12)

• S&P 500: 6,068.50 points (+3.18% within the year)

• Nasdaq: 19,643.86 points (+1.72% within the year)

• 10-year US Treasury yield: 4.537% (-3.90 basis points within the year)

• US dollar index: 108.04 (-0.40% within the year)

• Bitcoin: $96,032 (+2.80% during the year), daily spot trading volume is $32.49 billion

• Ethereum: USD 2,612.74 (-21.88%), daily spot trading volume is USD 20.61 billion

3.ETF flow direction (EST, February 11)

• Bitcoin ETF: -80.5 million USD

• Ethereum ETF: USD 00,000

4. Important date (Hong Kong time)

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attends Senate hearing (23:00 on February 11)

The core CPI in the United States in January was 21:30 on February 12th)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 3.1% / Expected: 3.2%

The United States' January CPI year-on-year (21:30 on February 12)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 2.9% / Expected: 2.9%

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the House of Representatives (23:00 on February 12)

2027 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on the economic outlook (01:00 on February 13)

The number of people who requested initial unemployment benefits in the United States as of the week ending February 8 (10,000) (21:30 on February 13)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 219,000 people/Expected: 216,000 people

The annual rate of core PPI in the United States in January (21:30 on February 13)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 3.5% / Expected: 3.3%

5. Hot News

People familiar with the matter: Trump nominates a16z crypto policy director Brian Quintenz as CFTC chairman

SEC confirms acceptance of spot Solana ETF applications submitted by 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary, and VanEck

Powell says it won't push forward central bank digital currency during his term

BitGo considers IPO as early as the second half of 2025, with a valuation of over $1.75 billion

Ethereum Foundation will provide $200,000 in grant to support Pectra upgrade ecosystem

Lido launches V3, introducing customizable "stVaults" to support advanced Ethereum staking strategy

Fed chairman reiterates no need to rush to adjust interest rates

Trump family crypto project WLFI collaborates with Ondo Finance to promote adoption of tokenized RWA

Uniswap Labs: Layer2 network Unichain main network has been launched

Listed company KULR Technology increases its Bitcoin holdings to 610.3

Hong Kong confirms that Bitcoin and Ethereum can be used for investment visas for wealth proof

FTX Phase 1 Repayment Will Repay $6.5 billion to $7 billion

Treasure Chain will launch AI proxy launch platform Mage in the coming weeks, with MAGIC as the core token

DIN launches airdrop query page and publishes token economics

Binance Alpha is listed on Autonolas (OLAS)

Matrixport: Ethereum may rebound due to RSI lows and upgrade plans

Binance HODLer airdrop launches Solayer (LAYER)

Binance was suspected to have significantly reduced its BTC and ETH holdings last month, turning to USDC, with BNB reducing shares being lower

OpenAI Board of Directors to Reject Musk's $97 billion offer

Ouyi OKX will launch IP spot trading on February 13

Analysts predict the probability of LTC, DOGE, SOL, and XRP spot ETFs being approved, with LTC up to 90%

NYSE Arca Apply for Cardano ETF for Grayscale

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