Will Litecoin lead the 2025 ETF application wave?

Author: Ben Strack, Blockworks; Translated by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

The app you use to bet on Super Bowl will not offer the odds of which cryptocurrency ETFs will be listed in 2025.

To this end, many have turned their attention to Bloomberg intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas – a pair that provided a credible voice to X users before Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were approved last year.

They say the Litecoin ETF is the leader in launching this year – with a 90% chance.

In addition to LTC products, Seyffart and Balchunas also give a 75% chance of Dogecoin ETF being approved in 2025. Then, the probability of Solana and XRP ETFs dropped slightly to 70% and 65% respectively.

In any case, some people on Bloomberg also agree with what we hear.

I've written about these documents intermittently, but let me remind you about the thoughts here.

The SEC has not labeled LTC and DOGE as securities before - it is a good thing if they want to end up being classified as such ETFs. The agency also acknowledged the Litecoin application. This is another good sign because we have seen (before that) fund managers withdraw products that the SEC is not ready to consider.

Seyffart is expected to receive further confirmation this week.

As for assets that Balchunas and Seyffart believe are slightly less likely to enter the U.S. ETF this year, SOL is considered a securities in several SEC lawsuits. Regulators appealed Ripple last month.

Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty said in a January X post that he expected “rediscussing the already failed argument” could be “abandoned by the next administration.”

Even so, Bitwise General Counsel Katherine Dowling warned that the SEC would be in “Purgatory” until agency chair nominee Paul Atkins is confirmed. She noted that court cases won’t go away overnight—“shouldn’t go away.”

“Determining how to best unravel all of these issues, including ongoing litigation, will take time,” SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce confirmed last week.

Dowling added that DOGE does not belong to “the dolphin in the fishnet” – an asset with an unclear status in the securities (due to the SEC’s claims).

So why are LTC and DOGE ETFs not 100% chances of winning? There is almost nothing for sure (you know the mantra of death and taxation).

ETF.com's Sumit Roy told me last month that "SEC remains cautious about market manipulation and custody risks that apply to all cryptocurrency ETFs."

The SEC 's 240-day ruling on Litecoin proposal will expire in early October.