Dialogue: If you want to invest in Memecoin, how can you make money?

Original title: "Dialogue with Ma: From MEME coins to launching platforms, the behavioral economics feast and investment logic behind Soha culture"
Original translation: TechFlow
Original source: Web3 101

Broadcast date: May 24, 2025

Podcast source: Web3 101

【Anchor】

Liu Feng , partner of BODL Ventures, editor-in-chief of former chain news

Xiong Haojun Jack , deputy editor-in-chief of Rhythm BlockBeats, anchor of "Web3 Unknown Talk"

【Guest】

Pima , co-founder of Continue Capital

The legendary investor of the cryptocurrency world is a guest on Web3 101, discussing why he thinks Meme immortal and the investment logic of the Meme launch platform, and the era we live in completely changed, the investment theme of the cryptocurrency world has changed.

Cosmos Meme Reflection: Siphon effect and Matthew effect of liquidity

Liu Feng: As OG, you have once achieved outstanding achievements in the fields of public chains and DeFi, but in today's Crypto investment world, OG feels like a swearing word. Now the most awesome is the story of the young P player becoming a Marshal P. What do you think of this trend?

Horse:

I am a relatively senior participant in Memecoin. On the one hand, I have worked hard on Solana in this cycle. I have participated in all Solana's Memecoin, including the earliest BONK, WIF, BOME, POP CAT, later GOAT, etc., as well as a large number of projects that were survived by the fittest.

At that time, we took it for granted that Solana Meme would recover, and other public chains would definitely have a certain recovery. So after Solana laid out BONK, it looked for similar Memecoin to go to ecology such as Cosmos and Avalanche to find similar Memecoin to layout. At that time, I thought it was a relatively strict logic.

But I ignored the siphon effect and Matthew effect of liquidity. After you participated in the first wave, it was actually over. You think it still has a second and third waves, but in fact it completed its historical mission in an early rebound stage, and the attention of the remaining mainstream funds will return to some on-chain ecology dominated by Solana at that time.

I have shared before that Memecoin accounts for about 1% to 3% of the market value of public chains, and may reach 5% in extreme situations. At that time, I did a lot of observations and statistics and concluded that the top Memecoin accounted for 1% to 5% of the market value of the public chain at that time for a certain period of time. There were several extraordinary cases in this range, such as DOGE and SHIB, but I removed them.

Later, with the development of the currency circle, you will find that Solana is completely unsuitable for this system. It has a large number of Memecoin emerging one after another, presenting an atmosphere completely different from other ecology.

This is entirely determined by Solana's retail investors. Solana is a market with retail investors as the core, which determines that the Solana ecosystem has created many tracks and fields that are likely to bring emotional, volatility and highly market-oriented to retail investors. On the one hand, I am trying to observe the entire Solana ecosystem, and on the other hand, I am willing to actively participate in Memecoin, which has both liquidity, participation, a wide range of user groups and is relatively not so mainstream.

How can I make money in Memecoin's feast of behavioral finance?

Liu Feng: If you want to invest in Memecoin, how can you make money? This is a particularly rough question.

Horse:

I'm basically 90% of Memecoin is on Solana, and even higher, and I won't focus on other currencies on any other chain. This market has evolved an optimal solution for you, and you are just looking for a second alternative on this optimal solution.

The core reason for finding the second alternative is that you have not gotten a result in the optimal solution, or you have not participated in it, you are just looking for the kind of rebound , which is very easy for people to fall into an investment trap. You will find that once you wait for you to enter, it will either not rise or it will torture you in the middle of the rise and fall. Another core is that it is difficult to get into the bag. You will find that when Solana's head Meme retreats by 30%, your 200% profit is gone and the drawdown is very fast. So I basically won’t pursue the ultimate goal of losing money in any investment system. I personally think it is very difficult for you to try to avoid the first strike from bull to bear in the entire market. Crypto is 7 X 24 hours, and you cannot keep an eye on all market fluctuations in real time, which is destined to mean that floating profits are easy to fall into the pocket.

The function of the leader is that it can give you a second chance to touch the high point and give you a try to make profits, so basically just focus on the leader.

The second is that I think when you invest in Memecoin, you often pay attention to a short, flat and fast one. In fact, from my personal experience of getting big results, short, flat and fast one may not be suitable for medium or above investors, unless you are particularly small.

Short, flat and fast participants are often attracted by short-term attention and do not consider the core operating logic of Memecoin. Split Memecoin into horizontal and vertical axis, and the x-axis is time. The y-axis is market value. You will find that the market value of most Memecoins is proportional to time. Time is a very important concept. Except for a few cases such as BOME and TRUMP, all the current Memecoins with a total of more than $1 billion are basically running for more than half a year. Without the time factor, many assumptions are not valid.

I think Memecoin is often a feast of behavioral finance.

A founder of behavioral finance is Richard Sailer, who is also a Nobel Prize winner. He divided the original investment system into two types, one is a savings account and the other is an entertainment account. The entire Memecoin has strong entertainment account attributes and functions. Daniel Kahneman also wrote a very famous thought before. He basically divided people into two systems: one is that it needs to be thoughtful, logical, and rational, and requires a lot of energy; the other is that it is simple, direct and fast, and does not require too much energy. Reflected to the Crypto field, Memecoin is perfectly compatible with System Two, fast and efficient, and highly fluctuating, meeting the emotional and capitalized operations of some of our FOMOs.

I browsed a paper two weeks ago, saying that a person's investment decision process may not exceed 6 minutes. Now it is in Memecoin or even 6 seconds. This is very similar to many of our investment decisions. I actually have many investment decisions that are very impulsive. Of course, I am impulsive because I have thought about the basic beta or savings account, so I have a lot of time and energy to find more possibilities in the Alpha market. A very important challenge for traditional finance is that everyone is irrational. The reason you think is just to live in your own information cocoon, people live in huge noise, and most people do not have the ability to distinguish noise.

Overall, I think Memecoin is a great development in behavioral finance. If we develop the theoretical system related to behavioral finance in the later stage, we can actually use some of the data of Memecoin as a research sample.

Soul Question 3: Do you dare to buy it? Do you dare to hold a heavy

position after buying it? Can you hold it when it falls?

Liu Feng: From the past few cycles, we have learned the strict investment logic you wrote, to today, we may only look at volatility and only look at whether Meme's social consensus can quickly attract liquidity. Do you think this situation can last?

Horse:

In fact, the reason why many investments are difficult is because the times are changing, and the investor structure, investment age group, and the investor income level are all changing.

Let me first conclude that Memecoin will continue to develop, and this is not just in Crypto. In my system, the Crypto field is not a separate market, it is completely related to world development and synchronized. People who have not caught up with the dividends of the times, a large number of unemployed people, people who have been eliminated by globalization, and people who have been solidified by class have no direction and investment opportunities, use a rebellious mentality to refuse to vote a large number of votes for those elite characters. Whether it is tariffs from the United States, the rise of new nationalism in Europe, including the rise of conservatism on the right side of Australia, are in a wave of new nationalism in the world. The mapping of this trend in real life is condensed into slogans such as All in and Shuttle. Such trends are not only in the Crypto field, but globally.

I think the rise of nationalism has injected great power into the Memecoin market and other niche and speculative markets. This part of the power will have a great impact on the traditional financial market with the development of AI and point-to-point Internet information technology.

You follow P.P. because he brings a lot of chips and results. This is the most impactful, contagious and eye-catching. I will avoid sharing practical pictures myself, but a large number of other Twitter users will use it to get huge exposure. On the other hand, we now pay attention to information equality. People's attention is very limited. When you pay a lot of attention to the young player, you will definitely not conduct in-depth research on the theoretical system, and the core is back to the third one: Do you dare to buy it? Do you dare to hold a heavy position after buying it? Can you hold on to a heavy position when it falls?

Many times, you only get the results, but you don’t get the decision-making thinking process behind the results, so even if you know the results, you still won’t buy, dare not buy, buy without a heavy position, and will not keep holding.

With the advent of a lonely society, selling demand is more attractive for niche tracks than selling products. What is demand in the Crypto field? That is, psychological identity. Users who hold Memecoin form a small group and community, bringing strong psychological identity, and this extremely recognized community will only strengthen itself. But unfortunately, Pump has launched more than 1 million Memecoins, but only a handful of them survived. This state of excessive participation and excessive failure to get results will form a very rebellious situation: seeing that others get good results will cause great stimulation to yourself, thus becoming more diligent, making further mistakes in the wrong choices, and then affecting your mentality. If you cannot focus on analysis and summary, you will be even more unsuccessful and unable to get results. This is a very vicious cycle.

Memecoin is a very interesting social phenomenon, but fewer and fewer people observe it.

Focus more on Meme infrastructure: Which LaunchPads are worth studying?

Jack:

Many memes may not bring particularly big results even if they increase by 100 times. So what is the purpose of your frequent participation in small and medium-sized Memes?

Horse:

This is a water temperature with market participation. I need to participate in the market with the most liquid and retail investors. When I discuss Memecoin, I don’t mean what kind of results Memecoin can bring to me. For our investment, I may pay more attention to Memecoin infrastructure, such as DEX, LaunchPad, etc. These are two completely different systems. You can understand it as the left-handed Beta and the right-handed Alpha. For me, under the premise that my beta work is already very solid, I have spent some time and energy to invest in the Memecoin market to experience the market trends.

The best thing about the Crypto field is that you can use some subtle observations to feel the flow of global capital markets. All Memecoin has been zeroed, and there is no big loss for us. However, Memecoin's market is mapped and related to other investment markets, but most people have no feelings about it. We need to consider the allocation of global capital. These targets are just the choice of beta that serves my core, so the participation in Memecoin is only to confirm some logic, so let us conduct a more reasonable evaluation of some core targets of beta.

Liu Feng: I actually understand your logic. Why do you want to get real returns on Meme with a large market value? This is related to your size and is completely different from what many people call the logic of changing their fate by investing in Meme. Maybe retail investors only want to talk about Alpha, but for you, beta is more important.

This era is actually the era of Memecoin. Meme is already the voice of the times. We should not deny it, we should accept it.

In this case, we can take a look at Beta and see the Meme launch platforms that have undergone several generations of evolution. Can you introduce which operational launch platforms you can like and you think are worth studying?

Horse:

The most eye-catching thing is Pump.fun (hereinafter referred to as Pump). In fact, they don’t have much innovation, but Crypto’s most core business model is transaction fees. The more market share you can occupy from this business model, you will have as much cash flow as you can and I can give you as much valuation. Pump meets the needs of asset issuance. In this product integrates the huge demand of Memecoin, both parties will hit it off, with infinite supply and infinite invisible pursuit of retail investors with ultra-high multiples, so you will see asset issuance platforms sprung up like mushrooms after a rain.

Consumer retail investors are a group of highly financialized people in the Crypto field, with great risk awareness and high gaming impulse. You have to design products against their impulse. Where do retail investors spend money? Only in terms of transaction fees, they would rather give you more processing fees than try to win Memecoin. He is not a fool, why did he pay such a high MEV priority fee? Because he feels that the benefits can cover the costs.

Our positioning of Crypto retail investors is a group of extremely financialized groups. We launch all products around their needs. This is one of the important factors in the success of Pump.fun, including Virtuals, which later made AI, which is also a LaunchPad. Both of them both meet the strong demand for asset issuance, so we observe that this kind of launch platform is a very good investment target. Memecoin can die a thousand or ten thousand, and there will be a continuous rise of Memecoin, but a good launching platform can solidify your funds, make profits, and truly win, and do the greatest value capture in capturing the entire Memecoin operation trend or trend.

Launching platforms and public chains: Attracting developers is the core

Jack: For example, Virtuals is coming to Solana now, do you think it's too late? Only one chance?

Horse:

For all launch platforms, you need to understand its supply and demand. Who will serve as the supplier of the launch platform? This is a very important factor. Pump suppliers are many anonymous. Virtuals has certain choices, but of course they are also anonymous. So when you look at the quality of any launch platform, you should pay close attention to revenue.

For the launch platform, my evaluation system is exactly the same as DEX. In fact, to another extent, the launch platform is a bit similar to the public chain, but everyone has not elevated the two to the same level.

As a launch platform, the core capability lies in how to attract developers. This is exactly the same as the logic of the public chain. Why do developers go to A instead of B? This is something worth thinking about in-depth, and this is the most important issue to determine the future direction of launch platforms and public chains.

Because the experience end of the service is occupied by a large number of retail investors, we usually think that the launching platform, including the public chain, is a to C market, but in my opinion, they are a to B market. If there are no good assets and good developers entering, your public chain/transmission platform will never be able to do it.

The most important thing for public chains and launch platforms is future cash flow income, which depends on continuous transaction volume, and transaction volume depends on continuously enriching varieties. Therefore, how to attract excellent developers to your launch platform is the core. It is actually very easy to conquer retail investors. As long as there are good assets, retail investors will come when they smell it.

Of course, whether it is a public chain or a launch platform, it often tests some marketing methods and methods, but without the injection of high-quality assets, it is difficult to last for the launch platform or public chain.

Believe's unique market positioning

Horse:

I think Believe's strategy to enter the market is right. APP developers have a large demand for financing, but they hardly get financing. Believe's supply side is independent developers. They develop a large number of APPs every year, hoping to achieve the positive cash flow of APPs, but there is no suitable channel to monetize the APPs to finance them. If the market is niche, it will not be able to achieve a market value of one billion or ten billion.

Believe focuses on these independent developers, or wants to try new fields and new directions. Crypto has very high risk awareness and tolerance for retail investors. The most important thing is that its market value is very low, which has long been a possibility of a hundred times or a thousand times. Believe directly draws on some of the experiences of other launch platforms, namely sharing costs with these developers, which is very good, and realizes positive cash flow for independent developers during the cold start stage.

In the traditional field, making APP requires many people to do a lot of work, including development and marketing, but in Crypto, it is not important whether this product can be successful or not. However, once it is successfully launched, it can be allocated hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash flow in just one week. This is a very considerable income for independent developers. Once this positive cash flow is available, they can continue to polish products, expand the market and serve users.

This actually explains why this model is called the Internet capital market. It meets the strong demand for a large number of small developers and small and micro enterprises to raise funds, releases the supply side, and is very in line with the trend that with the arrival of AI, independent developers can produce very good annualized revenue alone, and your promotion and operation can be completely spread through virality with the help of TikTok and Twitter.

But do you think there is a possibility that Believe will have a very large and very good company on the platform? I actually have no confidence, and I have an observation attitude towards this, but what I believe is that Believe has solved the niche very well, which serves a small range, a specific group of people, and a very targeted customer. What they make is this part of the money, which means they can't be bigger, but they have their market.

In addition, what impressed me with Believe is their careful planning and packaging, and their page design is more meticulous. In addition, they focus on launching some projects and activities. They try to tell a story. In addition to the Crypto field, they can also link other market niches. These traditional Internet developers are not familiar with encryption. This process must be the same as the first wave of AI market. I personally think that thousands of such projects will die. This is a process of familiarity and adaptation. Let's observe it slowly.

Liu Feng: You are very acknowledging Believe's logic and his own positioning. It is more like a practical application launching platform. Now that all launch assets are meme-based, Believe has the potential to have a batch of available applications.

Horse:

Hope it haha.

Update: Before this podcast is released, the Believe team announced that it will suspend Launchcoin’s automatic coin issuance function, which will be manually reviewed and verified tags will be added. We ask Pima again to comment on this change. Bima’s view is: “The review system is generally stupid; permissionless is the king.” Obviously he doesn't like the change.

Liu Feng: Recently, we have also pulled out some of the applications that are emerging on Believe or some of the assets that are being launched. I should have a table in my hand, which should be about fifty or sixty. I was also thinking that if it was just a Meme-based thing, it was actually too abstracted. But if it was really applied, it might be a different thing, including the launch platform that Dingaling is promoting. Its advantage is that the token design is relatively unique, but only token design, I think it is difficult to occupy my own position in the market, because Virtuals' token design is already very extreme.

Horse:

The key point is to have someone, how to fool the developers on your launch platform, which is a very critical thing.

Trading volume: the only evaluation criteria for launching the platform

Horse:

The only criterion for evaluating LaunchPad is trading volume, which represents core earnings. If you can't figure out this underlying logic, you won't invest when Pump comes out.

You have seen the result now. Pump has made $700 million. So how much is the valuation of Pump? Under normal logic, the valuation of 14 billion US dollars of 20 times PE is also reasonable. If we consider that the volatility is too high and Memecoin is not lasting, the valuation of 7 billion US dollars of 10 times PE is OK, and even the valuation of 3.5 billion US dollars of 5 times PE is OK. The core of this problem is:

What exactly is investing in? It is a discount on future cash flows by investing.

So when you consider LaunchPad, it is not that the platform is now 100 million, 200 million, or 1 billion, but whether the revenue of this platform can continue to expand in the future. This is actually completely applied to the stock market investment logic.

Crypto AI: oriented towards investment income results

Liu Feng: You must make a disclosure here. Believe you voted, right?

Horse: Yes.

Liu Feng: This information disclosure is quite important. Audiences can also think that he has invested in this project, so he is very particular about this project. So if you look at it as an investment, I think everyone should do their own research and be responsible to themselves.

In addition to Meme, do you still watch AI Agent?

Horse:

Now the entire AI track is basically results-oriented, that is, investment returns-oriented.

In the field of Crypto AI, we feel that all investments in these infrastructure fields seem to be repetitively drawing on some AI technologies in the Internet field, so we think it is not particularly deep moat and does not have any unique characteristics of itself. So basically we are all results-oriented, that is, you can help me make transactions or increase my revenue. The combination of AI and social media may have more profit explosion points.

Liu Feng: It sounds like you are not very confident in Crypto AI or Crypto AI agent?

Horse:

On the one hand, I think many of their core technologies basically come from the field of traditional Internet. On the other hand, to find their own business model, Pump is a very important representative of the rise of the application side, and we will tend to look at more application side ecology.

In the application side ecosystem, I must first know where the paid user base is? In addition to asset issuance and transactions, many application-side projects did not come out in the end because they could not achieve positive cash flow. For example, games. Can you tell me that a game-side has achieved a stable annual revenue of 300 million or 500 million US dollars? No.

Liu Feng: In real-world games, this is certainly possible, but in Crypto, it is obvious that you can only get such benefits by selling coins.

Horse:

Yes, because of the uniqueness of Crypto users, players will think that you asked me to pay for Crypto games. I heard it right? No one has krypton gold, but the main business logic of the game is krypton gold.

Therefore, in the application field, revenue is still the main focus. Where does the revenue generate? What is the quality of revenue generation? Sustainability of revenue generation? These are some points that we pay great attention to and are results-oriented.

Liu Feng: So it can be said that your current investment logic is very clear, just don’t tell me about trends and draw big pie. What I want is that you can truly achieve results, be able to make blood on your own, and have real users.

Horse:

Right, because the times are developing, innovation is evolving, the macro interest rate environment is changing, and the logic of globalization is changing. I think you can't keep things unchanged.

Optimistic about the development of Crypto in the future

Liu Feng: The currency circle you are talking about seems to be not the currency circle we are familiar with.

Horse:

Actually, I think I am very optimistic about the future development of the currency circle.

Many logics revolve around transactions. If the trading experience of global users can be better met, whether it is a launch platform, DEX, traditional exchanges, or dog-killing software, these products are both market-oriented, demanded, and users, and customers are willing to pay for your product.

US legislation has gradually become legal and compliant, and a lot of money will come to the chain. Stablecoins are only 200 billion US dollars now. In the next two or three years, stablecoins may continue to work to 1 trillion US dollars. At this scale, they will show a 24-hour transaction and operation. The trading track can extend a very large and huge market space, so I am very looking forward to products in the on-chain DeFi or on-chain Internet financial form.

In addition, the most core business model in the entire Crypto field is transaction fees . After the transaction fee is compensated, the enterprise side will cover the company side. After the company gets the money, it will continue to positively expand the user group. Combined with the religious nature of the Crypto community, it is very likely to gain a certain market growth and space in some sub-sectors that we cannot access.

This is actually a very good and effective logic I have seen, that is, you don’t need to sell tokens to maintain cash flow. You just need to let everyone trade more, you can achieve an average daily trading volume of 100 million US dollars, you can get a possible profit of 1 million US dollars, you can completely expand your coverage and achieve higher returns.

Of course, there are some problems, such as once arbitrage is reached, or the product does not obtain a positive information flow other than transactions, it may collapse, but this is not important. What is important is that we have seen a very good way to start, which is to use transaction fees to support the company's initial growth, which is also very consistent with the characteristics of Crypto investment.

Liu Feng: You are still so energetic, thank you for your recharge belief in this paragraph.

Horse:

I just saw a possibility.

Public chain cores are in the Gas fee and MEV fee

Jack: Actually, I am still confused. I just mentioned that with the development of stablecoins in the future, more funds may flow to the chain, but is it possible that all the funds flowing to the chain will stay in the state of stablecoins. Transactions are also denominated and anchored through stablecoins. It will no longer use the native assets of the chain, such as ETH or Solana. The platform for obtaining profits is staying at the Pump application layer. The underlying chain seems to be still in a mode of selling coins. It sells the coins to or sends them to nodes, and then the nodes will sell them to the market. Then the underlying currency seems to have no ability to generate self-generated blood. In this way, although this industry may indeed have a lot of money, it does not seem to be of much help to the underlying tokens.

Horse:

The core of the public chain is Gas fees and the slowly developing MEV.

Gas fees are the expenses you need to pay for every action. You can understand it as a cost expenditure on the bandwidth storage or computing resources of a public chain in a time period. This is where you have to pay. You have to pay means that this is a very good business model and investment system logic.

A large number of stablecoins come to the chain. No matter which chain it is connected to, it will definitely have a demand for liquidity and transactions. Assets are being opened to the chain of everything, and tokenization is a very big trend. Because it has very high transparency and flexibility, it also has 24-hour uninterrupted features. You need to understand more deeply what is the on-chain Nasdaq? It is to issue assets and trade assets, which is your source.

When you come in so much money, you can check out Tron's revenue. Their revenue is very stable. Tron maintains a revenue of 10 billion because it has the demand for stablecoins.

Jack: I understand this, but it is the trend we can see now. For example, from Ethereum, the previous cycle has been due to the Gas fee and various on-chain innovations, whether it is NFT or DeFi, which has indeed promoted its value capture. However, in the process of large-scale application on-chain, its Gas fee has become an obstacle to its own expansion, and then it begins to enter a process of reducing Gas fee. Gas fee continues to decrease, and it finds that although the chain adoption has increased, Gas revenue is getting less and less, and in the end, it basically cannot rely on this to maintain its own value. This phenomenon seems to be seen on Solana.

Horse:

You are very right. All blockchain systems are software, and the software will continue to iterate. If you think from a long-term and ultimate perspective world, the marginal cost of all public chains is zero, so what can you make a profit?

You can check out the priority fees on Solana. The basic fees of Solana only account for about 1/3, and most of the others are tips and priority fees. Why raise the tips and priority fees? This is actually the most core competitive. In the future, the revenue of public chains will be determined by tips and MEVs. Solana actually distinguishes the ecosystem through this. The basic fee is just an ordinary transfer, which means that the transfer is one kind of fee, and other transactions are another kind of fee.

You will find that when you optimize the system around trading, you can occupy a lot of profits on the trading side. The profits of MEV and REV are very large, and will definitely exceed Gas fees in the future development process. Why do users accelerate payment? Because of the willingness to seize this block, the trading market is first come first served, which is also the reason why Nasdaq pursues the speed of millisecond block production on the chain. Solana is now 400 milliseconds, which is actually far from enough. I think it may be possible to compete with the traditional Internet in 20 milliseconds.

In this kind of REV or MEV competition, customers are willing to pay, which is the core competitiveness. Why are customers willing to pay? Because customers find it profitable. Whoever takes over the majority of MEV and who makes customers more willing to pay determines a way to discount the company's future core cash flow.

Solana's current daily revenue is 80% of its current share of tips, priority fees, and MEV fees, which is very evident. We need to look for longer-lasting, more efficient and higher-quality income.

The moat for a chain of development is the developer. Public chains are a market for the B-end, and the C-end does not determine its success or failure. How public chains attract developers to rely on their abilities? What is important to me is the transaction volume, REV and developers of this chain. This is an important indicator of my view on the growth and future plasticity of the public chain.

We try not to invest in any public chain projects now. The overall situation has been decided, but what is not determined is your position. There is also network effect, just like why not challenge CATL in the field of new energy, because building an ecosystem is very difficult.

Liu Feng: Can we think that in your opinion, the public chain world is now fixed, so don’t expect any new public chain to counterattack successfully?

Horse:

In the past decade, ByteDance, a large $100 billion manufacturer, has been born in China's Internet. If venture capital or secondary investment has not been invested in by ByteDance over the past decade, it is basically not necessary to do it, because 55% of the profits have been taken away by ByteDance. The 28th Law exists in any field. The reason why we have expectations for many things is because we are loyal to some logic of the past.

Crypto still has hope, just like Hyperliquid is rising, I think Hyperliquid, like Solana's goal, is aimed at becoming a decentralized Nasdaq, and Monad seems to be counted as well.

The most important thing is that we have learned to settle accounts. We have a large number of ETFs. We are facing more mature investors. In the future, in a unified account, the friction of trading will become smaller and smaller. If you buy Nvidia, Alibaba, Tencent today, and you can buy Bitcoin ETFs in the same account tomorrow. Whoever you buy will decide who is expensive and who is cheaper.

The core question is, why should Solana, Ethereum be 100, or 200 times PE be given? If your revenue performance is not as expected over multiple cycles, then PE will drop. The investment system is becoming more and more mature, but many people have not thought about this issue. The focus is on the core revenue and core fundamentals.

There are many people who are willing to think in this world, but now everyone's attention is extremely dispersed and one-sided, so they will use some concise and abstract language to express emotions, such as a shuttle, etc., which is also a microcosm of social evolution. What is scarce in this world is the ability to think independently and distinguish noise.

Layer 2 has greatly weakened the economic value of Ethereum

Liu Feng: Actually, my last question was originally intended to ask you, if you choose Ethereum and Solana, how would you choose? But obviously this question is no longer needed.

So, can you tell me how Ethereum made you abandon it? Why? Can't Ethereum developers do it?

Horse:

I think the core change of Ethereum was in 2018 and 2019. You asked me about a field that was bearish, and I said that Layer 2 and Layer 2 will greatly weaken the economic value of Ethereum.

I have actually studied the so-called professional terms such as the currency settlement layer and the execution layer, but I am not interested in them, because these things are best quantified. How much does the settlement layer cost? Layer 1 How much money can you make in a day? Layer 2 Once split, OK, after all the money is made by Base and Arbitrum, how much money does they have to hand over to the central government Ethereum? Is this way of sharing reasonable? Layer 2 After the local princes obtain a large amount of economic ownership, will they have other ideas to seek armed independence? Will we seek market-oriented operation with greater profits? I think these are all problems that Ethereum has not thought clearly in the past.

I think everything can be quantified and can be explained clearly with certain financial indicators.公链的毛利率其实非常高，要想清楚这个钱是让谁赚，想不清楚的话，就不知道谁来买单，这个是非常重要的一个问题。

所以我个人认为以太坊走Layer 2 是一种比较错误的方式，没有很好的回馈以太坊，钱都让Layer 2 地方诸侯拿走了。

Conclusion

刘锋： 最后，这一集播客我也特别想送给我跟匹马老师都认识的一个特别好的朋友，他是匹马的小迷弟，去年下半年离开了我们，我们也都特别的遗憾。

我想如果他在的话，这期播客他一定会特别认真的听，所以我想送给他，也谢谢匹马的分享。