Congzhong Investment Guide: From "Mine Difficult Ruins" to "Gold Mine veins"

Author:Metrics Ventures

In the deep winter of 2018, I inspected a photovoltaic power station in Gobi Beach, Qinghai. In the cold wind below 20 degrees, the chief engineer pointed at the photovoltaic board of the film, "These are the inheritance of the previous round of expansion. When the market is clear, the new technology will break the soil." Single, the long -sized K -line was amazingly similar to the photovoltaic board array.

The encrypted market is experiencing cycle reincarnation that is the same as traditional industries. Like the photovoltaic industry knockout match in 2012-2016, the CEX altoscopic market has entered a cruel clearing stage: a large number of daily transactions of the 2021 star project fell below $ 10 million, and the median FDV was evaporated by 70 % over the peak. This is just like the trajectory of photovoltaic, Internet, and coal giants falling from 100 yuan.

However, the brutal back of the cycle law is always hidden. Just as Long Ji shares betting the single crystal silicon technology in the industry's freezing point, the darkest moment of the cottage market at the moment is breeding the broken momentum:

1. Reconstruction of valuation logic: VC 's "rich paper" and strain of leverage

At the peak of the bull market in 2021, the first -level market VC was like a crazy coal -hoarding speculator:

• Valuation Bubble : Risk Capital (VC) The median valuation of the seed wheel project reached 82 million US dollars (MESSARI 2022), which is 16.4 times from the 2017 cycle (compared to only 5 million similar projects in 2017) CEX has long overdraw 10 times space;
• Leveraged Thunder : Genesis and other institutions provided 100% LTV BTC mortgage loan in the previous cycle, which promoted arbitrage cycle: The institution mortgaged BTC → obtained stable coins → configured high β tokens. The dealer can mortgage BTC to buy cottage coins to form false prosperity. However, with the GENESIS thunderstorm in 2022, the mortgage value penetration of the liquidation line caused chain liquidation in 2022. This "capital vascular" was cut off, and the cottage market was reduced to a slaughterhouse for junk stocks to sell junk stocks.

2. When the clearing is clear: the clear cycle of the encryption industry is always fast than the industry

After two years of reshuffle, the market signal we can already observe is:

• Market emotions bottom : The average market value of CEX Congzhan Coins has been close to the level of 2020, and the market value of multiple projects listed in 2022-2024 has shrunk by more than 80%; 12.3%(Santiment), close to the historical freezing point; CEX Congzhan Coin Fear and Greed Index is less than 20 weeks, reaching the freezing point in March 2020
• The birth of the new track : Despite the contraction of the traditional market merchants, new mechanisms such as the mother currency, the DEX pool locking liquidity on the chain are rebuilding the leveraged flywheel channel. Essence

Conclusion : The current alcoholic coin market is like the coal stocks around 2015 -the capacity of production capacity is clearly proceeded, the market's heat has fallen rapidly, and the advantages of the market will no longer cause industrial fluctuations. ) Vampire, but there is no new thing in the sun. The first principle of investment is always liquidity and cheap. There is a gold mine that was killed by the ruins. We believe that high -quality projects only wait for the industry to settle in the clearing.

Congzhong funds dark battle: CEX valuation enters the bottom of the shock

foundation, DEX's dawn of the new continent

1. CEX dilemma: VC poison pills have not disappeared, clearing into the second half

The cottage of the centralized exchanges is essentially the "receiver" of the first -level market valuation bubble:

• Property power competition : In 2021, VC projects with a valuation of 1 billion yuan. Now the secondary market only recognizes 100 million market value, and 900 million in the middle has become a "valuation fault" (Case: a project seed wheel valuation of 200 million, online currency The market value of the circulation of Annius is only 40 million);
• Fund Modern Lake : BTC ETF brings $ 17 billion in incremental funds, but due to the tightening of risk control, the city merchants cannot add leverage through mortgage BTC in the past. "Dry the river" entered the negative feedback cycle of money -loss effect.

2. DEX Break: Secondary Price Revolutionary Revolution

Decentralization exchanges are rewrite the rules of the game:

• Traditional path : VC pricing → exchange on the exchange → retail receipt
• Valuation inverted : In DEX, retail investors can buy full circulation tokens at the price of VC 1/10
• Reconstruction mechanism : DEX market realizes price discovery through the AMM algorithm. The premium premium rate of typical projects is 73.5%lower than that of CEX (Dune Analytics); DEX Vampire CEX liquidity is a new paradigm that is priced in asset pricing: community consensus → dex liquidity certificate certificate → CEX passive currency
• Consensus fission : When the concept of niche (such as AI Agent) becomes a popular consensus through community communication, chip circulation is upgraded from "Zhuang San mutual cut" (PVP) to "incremental influx" (PVE). Typical case:
  • Virtual : From the popularity of DEX small circle to the list of observations by GrayScale, the market value rose 20 times in three months;
  • AI16Z : Community imitation A16Z investment logic packaging project, attracting traditional technology circles to enter the venue.

Core logic : CEX is "state -owned enterprise shaking baggage", DEX is "private enterprise backdoor listing" -the former policy rescue market, the latter relies on mass movements.

CEX VS DEX: Two sets of survival rules, two types of wealth passwords

1. CEX strategy

• Following the cigarette stock : only the project value of 50 million to 200 million, real products and communities, and the project party owns core pricing power to avoid "immortal shares" (average daily transactions <1 million US dollars);
• Waiting for the industrial cycle : Referring to the history of coal stocks, the layout of 2025-2026, the liquidity loose cycle is waiting for the return of the market value regression cycle to achieve the core label of the industrial trend (case: buying MKR 200 US dollars in 2020 and selling 6,000 US dollars in 2021);
• Liquidity arbitrage: In continuous market conditions, full circulation tokens often reflect the characteristics of qualified changes with the liquidity support of different CEXs. In the freezing point of emotional freezing point Emotional arbitrage. At this moment, we believe that ETH has a significant wrong pricing game opportunity under the premise of enjoying the liquidity of the US dollar system that is connected to Bitcoin.

2. DEX strategy

• Early sniper :
  • 500-20 million market value : focus on the background of the team, Github code/product quality, chip suction/distribution signal;
  • 20 million-50 million market value : CEX's expected expected (such as a DEFI project was included in the observation list by the currency security, the price of DEX soared 300%first);
• Community empowerment : Observe the consensus construction of Memecoin, take the AI ​​Agent track as an example, the token SocialFi index (social platform mentioned frequency/circulation market value) for each unit, corresponding to 47.8%excess returns (Lunarcrush data), capturing PVP The key inflection point of pve;

Conclusion

In the twilight of Qinghai Photovoltaic Base, the new generation of double -sided components is being stored in the setting sun. The cottage coin market is a giant gold mine, but most people come in with a golden golden dream and go out with gravel slag.

The cycle gear of the encrypted market has never stopped. Those projects that polish weapons in the cold winter will eventually reflect the most dazzling light when liquid dawn. What we have to do is just like senior miners -calibrated the compass when others abandoned the pit, and prepared enough ammunition before the industry awakened. Only by combining the patience of the coal dug, the gambler's fierceness, and the accounting power of the accounting can we dig out the real gold from the ruins. Remember: the bull market is a stage for cashful profits. Bear market is a battlefield that collects chips -and now, it is the golden moment of backing the basket and looking down at the mine. The time for the cottage to build a warehouse.

(Risk warning: There are zero risks when the target is mentioned in this article, and investment needs to be cautious. It is recommended to get a shovel, but don't put all dry food.)