BTC falls below 78,000: Where will the crypto market go under Trump tariff shock

Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Financial market reactions continued to ferment after Trump's tariff stick fell last week.

On April 7, 2025, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by about 10 basis points to 3.904%. The three major A-share indexes continued to fall, the ChiNext Index fell 10%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 8.3%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.6%, and more than 860 stocks in the entire market fell to the limit. European stock index futures continued to decline last week, with European Stoke 50 futures falling 4.3%, German DAX futures falling 5.0%, and British FTSE 100 futures falling 4.1%. The Nikkei 225 Index and the Australian S&P/ASX200 Index expanded, with both falling by 6% intraday, and the Nikkei 225 Index and the East China Index futures suspended trading after a sharp decline. Spot gold fell below $3,000 per ounce for the first time since March 21, down 1.28% intraday. Major Bay Area stock indexes fell more than 5.5%, the biggest drop since 2020. Saudi Aramco's stock price plummeted 6.2%, and its market value evaporated by more than $90 billion.

The stock market is in dismay

The crypto market is not spared, and the crypto market is in full swing. Today's Panic and Greed Index dropped to 23, and the level changed from fear to extreme panic. Many mainstream cryptocurrencies recorded double-digit declines: BTC is now at $78,973.52, a 24-hour decline of 5.4%. Three hours ago, it even fell below $78,000, with a minimum of $77,284.23.

ETH fell below the $1,600 mark to $1,595.76, a day-to-day drop of 11.9%. SOL was $107.21, down 10.9% intraday.

Due to the extremely bleak ETH market, many giant whale positions have been liquidated. According to on-chain analyst Ember Monitor, with this wave of decline, the 67,500 ETH ($105 million) lending position liquidation line at the $1,650 giant whale position was completely liquidated, which also helped boost the further decline of ETH. In fact, he added 2,160 ETH collateral at 1 a.m. to lower the liquidation line, but ETH fell all the way, and his ETH position was finally liquidated at 6 a.m. to pay off his 74.4 million DAI loan.

Another giant whale holding 57,000 ETH was almost liquidated at the same price as the 67,500 ETH position. Because he took the initiative to reduce his position a few days ago, he barely avoided the risk. Its position is still on the edge of the liquidation line and is expected to continue to reduce positions to reduce risks.

1. Is Trump deliberately manipulating the market to sell?

Trump posted on his social platform that the United States has a huge fiscal deficit against countries such as China and the EU. The only solution is to impose tariffs, which have now brought tens of billions of dollars in revenue to the United States. He criticized the widening trade deficit of the United States with the above countries during the Biden administration and promised to quickly reverse the situation, again emphasizing that tariffs are "very beautiful things" for the United States.

As U.S. stock futures plummeted, Trump said he did not intentionally manipulate the market to sell off , and he had spoken about tariffs in European and Asian leaders. He also said he could not predict what would happen to the market. When asked about market performance, he said that sometimes the market must "take medicine".

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik said the United States will not postpone the imposition of tariffs, and the "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on April 9 and will last for several days. In addition, Lutnik said the United States must include unmanned islands where penguins "inhabited" in the scope of tariffs to prevent some countries from trying to take advantage of loopholes.

Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Commission, said the stock market crash was not a strategy President Donald Trump intended. Earlier, Trump shared a link to a video on his social media platform, Real Social, that claimed that the president deliberately made the market plummet as part of his broader economic plan. When asked repeatedly whether Trump was interested in planning a market sell-off, Hassett responded: " He was not trying to collapse the market. He was trying to benefit American workers." Hassett said: "It is not a (government) strategy."

Asset manager Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that the U.S. president is deliberately letting the capital market collapse to force it to cut interest rates and reduce the cost of repaying U.S. Treasury bonds.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rate has been falling since Trump’s second term began. Source: TradingView

2. How do other countries respond to the tariff stick?

British Prime Minister Stamer spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, the British government said. The two sides agreed that it is crucial to maintain free and open trade between like-minded countries. Prime Minister Carney reiterated Canada's commitment to play an active role in the "Coalition of Will". The leaders of the two countries also discussed how to work together to maintain global economic stability after the United States announced relevant measures. The British government stressed that a comprehensive trade war was not in anyone 's interest , and Prime Minister Stamer and Prime Minister Carney reached a consensus on this.

The European Commission released a message saying that on the same day, European Commission President von der Leyen spoke with British Prime Minister Stamer and discussed trade issues. During the call, von der Leyen pointed out that the tariff measures announced by the Trump administration on April 2 will cause damage to all countries through direct and indirect means, including affecting the poorest countries in the world. Von der Leyen said the tariff measures marked a major turning point in U.S. policy. She said that although the EU is still committed to negotiating with the United States, if necessary, the EU is ready to defend its own interests through corresponding countermeasures.

EU countries will seek to form a united front in the coming days to fight back against Trump 's tariffs. The EU may approve the first set of targeted countermeasures for U.S. imports worth up to $28 billion, such as floss and diamonds. The European Commission will present a list of U.S. products to member states late Monday to respond to Trump 's steel and aluminum tariffs rather than broader reciprocal tariffs. Luxembourg will host the first EU- wide political conference earlier Monday since Trump announced the full imposition of tariffs, when ministers in charge of trade in 27 EU member states will exchange views on the impact of tariffs and how best to deal with it. EU diplomats said the main purpose of the meeting was to convey a consistent message that it hoped to negotiate with the United States on the cancellation of tariffs, but if the negotiations failed, they were prepared to take countermeasures.

3. Will tariff policies affect the lives of American people?

Regarding the latest tariff policy announced by the United States, the BBC, the Associated Press and other reports that the new US tariff policy will push up the prices of almost all daily necessities for American people, especially clothing, food, etc., and harm the interests of American consumers and companies. Yale University Budget Laboratory previously analyzed that the US tariff policy may lead to a 2.3% increase in the overall inflation rate in the United States this year, which is equivalent to causing a loss of $3,800 to every ordinary household in the United States.

Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Commission, believes that "tariffs will lead to a drop in US consumer prices."

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers disagreed with Hassett's statement. He believes that US President Trump's tariff policy is the biggest self-harm wound to the US economy in history . Summers said tariffs will lead to higher prices, aggravate inflation, thereby reducing people 's consumption capacity, and also reducing employment opportunities.

4. What do industry insiders view this market decline?

In an interview with CBS, Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders said that the United States under Trump is facing "unprecedented danger" and that the United States is rapidly moving towards oligarchy. He said this means that the U.S. government is being managed by and serves the billionaire class.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform that a large proportion of Trump’s supporters do not hold large amounts of financial assets. He believes that those who do not hold stocks have obvious gloating about stockholders, so Trump can firmly advance tariff policies and be sure that this position remains widespread among his core voter groups . . . . Tariffs will no longer exist as global reserve assets. . . For those who want to adapt to restoring pre-1971 trade relations, buy gold, gold miners and BTC. . . . BTC holders need to learn to like tariffs, and maybe we end up breaking the relationship with the Nasdaq and can turn to the purest form of fiat liquid smoke alarms.

Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 to 0.5%, and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% , as a result of sharp tightening of the financial environment, foreign consumer boycotts and continued surge in policy uncertainty, which may curb capital expenditures, which may exceed our previous assumptions.

Traders in the market forecasting market believe that the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is 61%.

Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japanese listed company Metaplanet, tweeted, " In days when Bitcoin is falling, it's easy to focus on prices only. But this can be a time to test and cultivate beliefs. Volatility is also a natural aspect of a diversified asset that is truly rare and has long-term potential. You should keep an open mind, understand how it works, and learn continuously."

Gold advocate and economist Peter Schiff’s view on Pierre Rochard, vice president of Riot Platforms, “ETH/BTC is fully retraceable, challenging the view that new cryptocurrencies can surpass Bitcoin due to their higher practicality” commented, “All tokens, including Bitcoin, have no real value, which is why their price has dropped sharply.”

Bitwise analyst Jeff Park said U.S. President Donald Trump 's trade policy will trigger global macroeconomic turmoil and short-term financial crisis, which will ultimately lead to wider adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value asset. “The cost of tariffs is likely to be borne by raising inflation, which will be shared by the United States and its trading partners, but relatively speaking, foreign countries will be much more affected. These countries will have to find a way to withstand the problem of weak economic growth.”

Author and financial commentator Holger Zchaepitz concluded in X's response: " Trump's tariffs announced this week have evaporated stock market value by $8.2 trillion — more than the losses in the worst week of the 2008 financial crisis."

" The only real circuit breaker in Asian stocks is President Trump's remarks, and there is little indication that the market sell-off has trouble him enough to reconsider the policy stance he has believed for decades," said Sean Callow, senior forex analyst at ITC Markets in Sydney. " Previously, investors believed that trillions of dollars in wealth losses and the potential damage to the economy would make Trump reconsider his plans.

Bitcoin backer Max Keiser even predicts that BTC will reach $220,000 by the end of the month. “The 1987-style super crash will push Bitcoin to $220,000 this month as trillions of wealth seek the ultimate haven: Bitcoin.”

" BTC volatility is getting lower and lower , and the stock VIX (Volatility Index) has closed at its highest level since the COVID-19 crash in 2020." "This is unheard of, and due to this compression, I am very confident that cryptocurrencies will also experience significant volatility next week. I think whether it is up or down, it depends on whether the stock market can bottom out at the beginning of this week. "

BTC/USD and VIX Volatility Index Charts. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Trader Cas Abbe said BTC 's recent drop to a low of $76,000 may end up being a typical fake crash. He told X fans: "This looks no different from the ETF sell-off and the crash in August 2024. I 'm waiting for a weekly rebound of $92,000 to confirm the uptrend."

BTC/USDT 1 week chart. Source: Cas Abbe/X

5. Who is buying at the bottom?

El Salvador increased his holdings by 1 Bitcoin in this decline, and its current total holdings reach 6139.18, with a total value of US$488 million.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the two major addresses have recently purchased large amounts of ETH. Among them, the "7 Sibling" address spent $41.78 million to buy 25,092 ETH at an average price of $1,665; the other new wallet bought 4,983.56 ETH at an average price of $1,631.