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Viewpoint: BTC has not reached the top of the cycle yet, and now it is a medium-term correction

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Reprinted from jinse

03/05/2025·1M

Author: Chris Burniske, Partner of Placeholder; Translated by: 0xjs@Golden Finance

These days I hear people talking about surrender everywhere. The surrender of others is your chance.

At a critical moment in cryptocurrency, none of them is easy. At the bottom, there is always a lower talk. During the fork, there is always talk of public chain damage.

We now find ourselves in another less easy moment. If that makes you emotional, it doesn't matter, sit down and feel the emotion, observe it, and decide what to do with it. As long as you have patience, you can succeed...

Although there is always a risk of a decline, I still believe this is a mid- term bull market pullback and we have not seen the "cycle top". The decline in BTC will not change this view. If you're hesitant, it's unlikely to be a good idea to sell here - because if you sell here, it also tells me that you're easily marginalized on the road to the upside.

Worst of all, just stand by and watch and don't even look at the price if it helps, and you won't do anything. If you still have any dry powder, add some here or there if things really appeal to you, or if you feel the most uncomfortable. Not financial advice, just sharing two of my views.

In my opinion, altcoins lead BTC, and BTC leads stocks. Stocks may still have some fluctuations, but remember: BTC and crypto assets are the fastest horses in the financial field, whether it is down or up. If the stock market becomes weak enough, measures will be taken to avoid any significant or systematic weaknesses, as Trump’s favorite scoreboard is the stock market—and crypto assets will feel the most acutely.

If you exit cryptocurrency for fear or want to be too cute, you will be whipped on the other side. Don't listen to traders who are always perfect - they are liars. People who make big money rarely boast about how much money they make.

I always make mistakes, but for me, the key has been to keep a lot of distribution of decades of growth stories. In a sense, I always go partially with the flow and put some reserves into the lifeboat when things are good (read: make a profit the next time you want to show off).

Aside from liquidity injection, interest rate adjustments and the big macro, it is now an incredibly exciting time for blockchain. They finally get the (international) respect they deserve, and a variety of powerful teams are working on projects that integrate blockchain applications deeper (seamlessly) into the social structure. It was not until last year that the agency actually received Uncle Sam's approval.

All of this takes time – stick to embracing the magic currency BTC, friends.

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