Users don’t want VC coins or meme coins, so what do users want?

Author: Fu Shaoqing, SatoshiLab, Island of All Things BTC Studio

1. Preface

Not only the VC currency and meme currency phenomena have caused more thoughts, but many well-known people in the industry have also raised similar questions and are striving to find solutions. For example, in He Yi's Twitter space activity on Best Friend Coin, Jason (Chen Jian) ​​raised the question of whether the token launched by Binance has a mechanism to solve the problem of selling coins and then lying flat on the project team. There are also the recent CZ release of "A Crazy Idea for Token Issuance" that is trying to find solutions to related problems.

I think all teams that are really working hard to do projects hope that the market will reward real contributors, rather than let Ponzi, scammers, speculators, etc. take away the dividends of this industry and disrupt the development of this industry.

Because VC coins and meme coins have a good case analysis effect, this article will analyze these two phenomena.

2. The past and present life of VC coins

VC coins were not produced out of thin air. Its appearance has historical reasons. Although VC coins now look imperfect, it also played a relatively important role at the beginning, and VCs were involved in important projects in the industry.

2.1. The chaos of ICO in 2017 - The Devils Dance

2017 was a critical year for the outbreak of the initial token issuance (ICO) in the blockchain field. According to statistics, the ICO financing amount exceeded US$5 billion that year. In addition to the classic ICO projects introduced below, the author also participated in ICOs of some small projects, completely feeling the madness at that time, and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as a group of demons dancing. At that time, as long as a project token was going to conduct an ICO, someone would stand up and write the white paper well. If it was thrown into some groups, it would be robbed immediately. People were crazy and irrational at that time. To be exaggerated, even if you throw a piece of shit into the group, you will be robbed crazy. If you don’t believe it, please search for the token situation of MLGB (Malego Coin). (This also reflects the powerful power of ICO)

Regarding the cause of the outbreak , I summarized it as follows through my communication with DeepSeek and Chatgpt, as well as my own understanding:

(1) The coin issuance technology is mature: In particular, the launch of Ethereum has enabled developers to easily create smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps), which has promoted the rise of ICO.

(2) There are several other reasons: market needs, the concept of decentralization has just begun to fall into people's hearts, giving people good expectations, and low-threshold investment.

Several classic cases were produced during this period

(1) Ethereum (Ethereum): Although Ethereum’s ICO was conducted in 2014, Ethereum’s smart contract platform was widely used in ICO for many new projects in 2017, and this project was also carried out through ICO. Overall, this project is still very good, and it has grown to the second place in the Crypto world.

(2) EOS: EOS raised nearly US$4.3 billion through a one-year, phased ICO in 2017, becoming one of the largest ICOs of the year. This project has almost disappeared now. On the one hand, the technical route has not been taken correctly, and on the other hand, the market demand is not controlled enough.

(3) TRON: TRON's ICO in 2017 also raised a large amount of funds. During the period, the exchange of coins and plagiarism and other projects were popular, but the subsequent development was rapid and attracted a lot of attention. From this point of view, is Brother Sun doing quite well compared to those projects that ran away? He still has a very accurate grasp of market demand, such as the income of Tron stablecoin. Tron has a strong contrast with EOS from the control of technology and market demand. Tron's development results are quite good. If the HSR (HShare, nicknamed braised pork) who exchanged coins, left the share of the exchanged coins Tron, the profit would be higher than his own project.

(4) Filecoin: Filecoin successfully raised more than US$250 million in 2017, and its concept of distributed storage has attracted widespread attention. The team composed of Juan Bennett and others in the Creation team is relatively luxurious. This project cannot be said to be successful or failed, but whether its project can develop healthily is a question.

The author personally feels that there are more non-classic cases and they have a greater impact, which is also a great historical reason for the emergence of VC coins.

Exposed problems

(1) Lack of regulation: Due to the rapid development of the ICO market, many projects lack supervision or are not regulated at all, resulting in high risks for investors. There are many scams and Ponzi schemes, with almost 99% of the projects having exaggeration and fraud.

(2) Market bubble: A large number of projects raise huge amounts of funds in the short term (these funds are not well managed), but many of them lack actual value or described scenarios are completely unavailable, which makes even projects that do not want to be scammed and run away or fail.

(3) Inadequate Investor education, it is difficult to judge: Many ordinary investors lack understanding of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, and are easily misled, leading to investment decision-making mistakes. Or investors have no way to measure the project or supervise the progress of the project afterwards.

2.2.VC entry and reputation endorsement

Through the above description, we see the chaos after ICO. At this time, venture capital (VC) first came forward to solve the problem. VC provided more reliable support for the project through its own reputation and resources, helping to reduce many problems brought about by early ICO. At the same time, an additional effect is to help the majority of users to perform a layer of screening.

The role of VC

(1) Grassroots financing defects that replace ICO

• Reduce fraud risk: VC filters "air projects" through " strict due diligence " (team background, technical feasibility, economic model) to avoid the spread of white paper fraud in the ICO era.

• Standardization of fund management: adopt phased capital injection (appropriation by milestone) and token lock-up period clauses to prevent teams from cashing out and running away.

• Long-term value binding: VCs usually hold project equity or long-term locked tokens, which are deeply bound to project development to reduce short-term speculation.

(2) Empower the project ecology

• Resource import: It connects key resources such as project docking exchanges, developer communities, compliance consultants, etc. (such as Coinbase Ventures to help project list coins).

• Strategic guidance: Assist in designing token economic models (such as token release mechanisms) and governance structures to avoid collapse of the economic system.

• Reputation endorsement: The brand effect of well-known VCs (such as a16z, Paradigm) can enhance market trust in projects.

(3) Promote industry compliance

VC promotes projects to actively comply with securities laws (such as Howey Test in the United States), adopts compliant financing frameworks such as SAFT (Simple Agreement on Future Tokens) to reduce legal risks.

VC intervention is one of the most direct solutions to the early ICO model problem. Overall, VC plays a crucial role in the success of the Web3 project. Through funding, resources, reputation and strategic guidance, it helps the project overcome many challenges faced by early ICOs, and indirectly helps the public complete preliminary screening.

2.3. VC coins problem

New things appear to solve some old problems, but when this new thing develops to a certain stage, it begins to present a series of problems itself. VC coins are such cases, and later it showed many limitations

Mainly reflected in:

(1) Conflict of interest

VC is an investment institution that makes profits through investment. It may promote excessive tokenization of projects (such as high unlocking of selling pressure) or prioritize service to its own portfolio (such as exchange VCs support "child" projects).

(2) Inability to solve the problem of subsequent project development.

(3) Conspire with the project party to deceive retail investors (it is part of the project party and VC that operates in this way, and the VCs of big brands are relatively good).

VC institutions only complete the early investment and profit-making exit links. On the one hand, they have no obligation to develop the project in the later stage, and on the other hand, they have no ability and no intention to do so. (Will it be better if the VC is restricted to its ultra-long unlocking period?)

The main problem with VC coins is that after the project party’s coins are listed, they lack the motivation to continue to build. VC and project parties will cash out and run away after they are listed. This phenomenon makes retail investors hate VC coins, but the essential reason is that the project cannot be effectively supervised and managed, especially the matching of funds and results.

3. Fairlanunch and memecoin phenomena of inscriptions

The inscriptions that broke out in 2023 and Fairlanunch, and the pumpfun mode of memecoin that broke out in 2024, both reveal some phenomena and also expose some problems.

3.1. The outbreak of the inscription and Fairlanunch

In 2023, there were two significant trends in the blockchain field: the explosion of Inscriptions technology and the popularization of the Fair Launch model. Both phenomena stem from reflections on early financing models (such as ICO and VC monopoly). In the field of inscriptions, most VCs generally reflect that they do not have the opportunity to participate in the primary market, and they dare not invest too much even in the secondary market. This reflects the users and the community's pursuit of decentralization and fairness.

The inscription first broke out on the Bitcoin blockchain, represented by BRC 20, and produced important inscriptions such as ORDI and SATS. There are some reasons for the outbreak of the inscription: the need for innovation in the Bitcoin ecosystem; the need for users to resist censorship and decentralization; low thresholds and wealth effects; resistance to VC coins; the attraction of fair launch.

The inscription also creates some problems:

• pseudo-fairness, in fact, the numerous participation addresses may also be disguised by a few institutions or large-scale investors;

• Liquidity problem, there are large transaction costs and time costs for the use of inscriptions on the Bitcoin main network;

• The loss of value and the huge handling fees generated by creating inscriptions were taken away by miners (the loss of anchor assets) and did not empower the closed loop of this token's ecosystem;

• Application scenario problem, inscriptions do not solve the problem of continuous development of a token, and these inscriptions do not have "useful" application scenarios.

3.2. Pumpfun's outbreak and memecoin phenomenon

Meme originated relatively early, and it was a cultural phenomenon in the early days. The real world takes the concept of NFT proposed by Hal Finney in 1993 as its earliest origin. What drove NFT was Counterparty, founded in 2014, based on Rare Pepes, which created it, turned the popular meme sad frog into an NFT application. meme is translated as a meme, which is equivalent to an emoticon, a sentence, or even a video or animated image.

As Meme has emerged in the NFT field, and as some technologies mature, memecoin has begun to form. In 2024, the Pump.fun platform based on the Solana chain rose rapidly and became the core position of memecoin distribution. The platform has made memecoin have a significant impact in 2024 through a simple and complete token service process (ICO+LP+DEX) and speculation mechanism. The author believes that the important contribution of Pumpfun is that the platform combines three separate services into a complete closed loop: the issuance of Token, the construction of a liquidity pool, and the decentralized exchange Dex.


The proportion of dex on tokens on early pumpfun (called graduation rate in the industry) was very small, only 2% -3%, which also shows that early entertainment functions were higher than trading functions, which also conformed to the characteristics of meme. But later at its peak, the Token graduation rate often reached more than 20%, becoming a pure hype machine.

An analysis data on Twitter also illustrates the problem with the memecoin pattern. (The author has not confirmed the reliability of this data)


Pumpfun's total revenue is close to $600 million, so that US President Trump and his family also issued their own tokens, indicating the outbreak and climax of memecoin. According to Dune's above analysis, memecoin is also experiencing a cycle from generation to growth to explosion.


The main issues of memecoin

(1) Systematic fraud and trust collapse: According to Dune data, about 85% of tokens on Pump.fun are scams, and the average cash-out time for the founder is only 2 hours.

(2) False propaganda is rampant: the project party forged KOL platforms and forged transaction volume (through order brushing robots). For example, the token MOON claimed to have been endorsed by Musk, but it was actually a PS fraud.

(3) Market ecological distortion: liquid siphon effect, memecoin occupies a large amount of on-chain resources, squeezing normal project development space (such as Solana on-chain DeFi protocol TVL declined by 30%). These resulted in real users being expelled, and ordinary investors gradually exited the market because they were unable to fight against Bot and insider trading. Some project teams even have the idea of ​​using the investment funds they have obtained to run a memecoin and arbitrage to run away.

memecoin developed from its early entertainment function to its mid-to-late PVP (Player versus Player), and later developed into PVB (Player versus Bot), becoming a tool for a few experts to harvest retail investors. Memecoin has never had an effective value injection, which is a serious problem. If this problem is not solved, memecoin will eventually decline.

4. What kind of projects do users or markets want?

By reviewing the development history of the Web3 project, we understand the historical reasons and advantages and disadvantages of the VC currency, and also briefly analyze the inscriptions and the memecoin phenomenon promoted by pumpfun. They are all products of the development of this industry. Through these analysis, we see that there are still some key issues in the development of web3 projects.

Note: Do VC coins and meme coins reveal all the problems? Or revealing the main current problem?

4.1. Summary of existing problems

We summarized the problems of the current Web3 project from the previous content:

1. Projects should have continuous construction motivation. No one should get too much money too early. Users holding tokens and subsequent construction should receive continuous rewards, rather than cracking down and deception.

2. Eliminate or reduce PVP, which is largely more fair and reduces the dealer's operations, so the real fair launch is more important, but after getting on the dex, the race still runs faster, because the value of the pool is fixed, and more people get it early.

How to solve the above problem:

1. Project management issues: Do not allow project parties or VCs to obtain large amounts of funds too early, or use funds under regulatory conditions, or allocate funds to teams that make contributions and construction.

2. Sustainable external value injection: This can solve the PVP problem and reward medium and long-term token holders and builders. Continuous external value injection can provide financial support to the project parties that are actually to be built, and can also allow Token holders to have medium- and long-term growth expectations, and can also reduce the problem of cashing out too early and running away.

This simple conclusion is not easy to describe the problem clearly. For project management issues, it is necessary to analyze the stakeholders in a project ecosystem, and it is also necessary to dynamically analyze possible problems from different stages of the project (issuance, circulation, governance).

4.2. Management issues of different stakeholders and different links of

the project

1. Different stakeholders

The most relevant part of the Web3 project is its economic model design. Stakeholders in the project generally include participants in the project team, investors, foundations, users and communities, miners, exchanges, market makers or other project ecological partners . Economic models are needed to plan to allocate and contribute incentives to different stakeholders at various stages. The economic model generally includes the proportion of tokens allocated to stakeholders, the rules of release of tokens, the methods of incentives, etc. The specific proportions and release rules will be determined based on the actual situation of each project and the degree of contribution of each stakeholder, and there is no fixed value. There is also a group of bystanders outside the project (speculators, hair-pulling studios, liars,...).


Among different interest groups, it is necessary to prevent a certain stakeholder within the ecosystem from taking away too much interests. For example, in the VC coin project, the project team and investors take away most of the value of the token, and there is no continuous construction motivation in the later stage, and it is also necessary to prevent the external group from taking away improper interests, such as speculators in the memecoin coin.

2. Analyze problems from multiple links such as issuance, circulation, and governance

(1) Issuance of Token

There are many ways to issue digital currencies. In addition to mining and issuance based on Pow, there are also ICO, STO, IBO and other methods, and there are also airdrops like Ripple. No matter what method is used, there are two main purposes of issuing digital currency: one is to raise funds ; the other is to send digital currency to users so that more people can use it.

(2) Token circulation and management

Compared with the early days of the Web3 project, the issuance of Token has already been in various ways, allowing a large number of digital currencies to enter the circulation field. In the circulation of tokens, due to insufficient demand and limited means of managing token liquidity, many problems arise in the circulation field of tokens. Many of the management of tokens are achieved by providing various different applications. For example, the transaction function of the token, the staking of the token, the entry threshold for members (the number of tokens or the NFTs they hold), the consumption in the application (the Gas fee for the public chain, the registration fees and renewal fees for ENS, etc.)


The token released by the project is prematurely, that is, the part between the red line and the green line, needs to use the liquidity locking function and cannot be taken away by a certain stakeholder in advance. These locked tokens and project progress during construction involve management issues.

3. Project governance issues

In Web3 projects, the most direct control is achieved by the design of consensus mechanisms and economic models. Use the token in the economic model to control the supply and consumption of resources. The design of economic model plays a very important role in Web3 projects, but this scope of action is limited. When the economic model cannot complete this part of the function, other ways are needed to supplement the economic model. The community governance mechanism is a functional supplement to areas that economic models are not good at.

Due to the characteristics of decentralization and the network basis of programming and running rules, the blockchain world has produced community organizations of DAO and DAC, which can compare traditional corporate and corporate governance with centralized structures in the real world.

This part of the management combined with the DAO and foundation model can better complete the management of funds and ecology, while also providing sufficient flexibility and openness and transparency. The DAO management members must meet certain conditions and must include major stakeholders and third-party institutions as soon as possible. If the exchange of listed coins is used as a third party, will this situation be adopted by Jason's suggestion to exchange with certain supervision and notarization rights and functions? In fact, this time, this wave of market makers smashing in GoPlus and Myshell, Binance played this role.

Can this management structure also better implement the model proposed by CZ in "A Crazy Idea for Token Issuance"? Let’s take this management concept in CZ as an example for analysis, as shown in the figure below:


(1) Initially, 10% of the tokens are unlocked and sold on the market. The proceeds will be used for the project team to develop products/platforms, marketing, compensation, etc. (This design is very good, who will do the management and supervision? Is this part of the work handed over to the project 's DAO organization. Is it better to use treasury and third-party supervision?)

(2) The judgment of several conditions that must be met for each future unlock (This design is aimed at the management of continuous work after the initial period and the later token liquidity after the management of token liquidity in the later period. If it is handed over to DAO for management, the effect will be better.)


(3) The project team has the right to postpone or reduce the scale of each unlock. If they don't want to sell more, they don't have to. But each time they can sell (unlock) up to 5%, and then they have to wait for at least 6 months and the price doubles again. (This design must be done by a third- party organization like DAO, which will make the team have the right to do it and become the DAO has the right to decide on it. Because the project team is also an important member of DAO, it should not cause too many side effects)

(4) The project team has no right to shorten or increase the scale of the next unlock. The token should be locked by a smart contract that controls the keys by a third party. This prevents new tokens from pouring into the market when prices are sluggish. This also encourages the project team to carry out long- term construction. (This design further shows that a third-party organization is needed, which will be more controllable and manageable than smart contracts. In fact, CZ has proposed the concept of DAO from the subconscious mind)

Of course, this is just a case study. Real project governance also includes many aspects. I believe that web3 will gradually improve and broaden the implementation of this solution to this day, and will continue to correct problems and find better specific methods in practice.

4.3. How to build long-term projects (value capture and value injection)

Without cooperating with technological and application innovation, various projects in the industry will not last long after relying on the call-out model. In the end, the problems of VC coins and meme coins reappeared. In fact, pumpfun provides a reference framework. Its explosion and subsequent demise are due to the lack of an important link: the empowerment of Token (also known as value capture and value injection). As shown in the figure below

Based on the above picture, we will see that after VC coins are on the exchange, the project party will get relatively generous returns and will no longer have the motivation to build later. Because later construction not only has great risks, but also does not have enough returns, lying flat is the best choice. But there are some teams with ideals and ability that will continue to build, and there are fewer such teams. Pumpfun's memecoin mode itself does not have the token empowerment behind it, so they all run fast in the competition. Why can memecoins like Dogecoin continue to rise? The author believes that there are many reasons and there is a chance to elaborate on it in depth in the future.

How can we have long-term value injection? What are the ways to empower?

Recalling previous Web3 project cases, such as how DeFi protocols capture value through liquidity mining, how NFT projects inject external value through royalty mechanisms, or how DAOs accumulate value through community contributions. With the maturity of web3 technology, more "application scenarios" can be generated, so that there are more and more connections that can generate value.

Value capture and external value injection are the two pillars of the Web3 economic model. The former focuses on retention and the latter focuses on introduction. More popular terms such as "value accumulation" and "flywheel effect" can better reflect the dynamic combination of the two, while "token empowers "positive externalities" start from the perspective of functional design.

The core challenge is to balance short-term incentives with long-term value and avoid falling into the "paper model" and Ponzi cycle.

5. Crypto Analysis of the First Two Bull Markets and Analysis of the

Possibility of the Next Breaking

The previous content analyzes the problems existing in VC coins and meme coins that are currently more concerned in the industry. Will solving these problems promote the explosion of the next bull market? Let’s first review the two bull markets in 2017 and 2021.

Note: On the one hand, the following content is based on the information queried online and draws on communication with DeepSeek and Chatgpt. On the other hand, the author has personally experienced the bull market in 2017 and 2021, and our team is also developing related products of the Bitcoin ecosystem, so the article has added some of its own feelings and judgments.

5.1. The ICO craze in 2017

The bull market in the blockchain field in 2017 is the result of the joint action of multiple factors, including technological breakthroughs and ecological development, as well as external environmental factors. The reasons are summarized based on professional analysis in the industry and classic literature as follows:

(1) ICO (initial token issuance) craze

Ethereum’s ERC-20 standard lowers the threshold for issuing coins, and a large number of projects have been raised through ICO (with more than $5 billion in financing throughout the year).

(2) Dispute on Bitcoin fork and expansion

The divergence between the Bitcoin community on scaling schemes (SegWit vs. Large Blocks) leads to forks. The Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork in August 2017 has attracted market attention to Bitcoin’s scarcity and technological evolution. BTC price rose from $1,000 at the beginning of the year to an all-time high of $19,783 in December.

(3) The rise of the Ethereum smart contract ecosystem

Smart contracts and DApp development tools are mature, attracting developers to influx. The concept of decentralized finance (DeFi) is in its infancy, and early DApps such as CryptoKitties have triggered user participation.

(4) Global liquidity easing and regulatory gap

Global low interest rates policy in 2017 led to funds seeking high-risk, high- yield assets. Countries have not yet improved regulation of ICOs and cryptocurrencies and there is no constraint on speculation.

The bull market in 2017 laid the infrastructure for the industry (such as wallets, exchanges), attracted technical talents and more new users to join, but also exposed problems such as ICO fraud and lack of supervision, prompting the industry to turn to compliance and technological innovation (such as DeFi and NFT) after 2018.

5.2. DeFi Summer in 2021

The bull market in the blockchain field in 2021 is the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as industry ecology, macroeconomics, technological innovation and institutional participation. The reasons are summarized based on professional analysis in the industry and classic literature as follows:

(1) The explosion and maturity of DeFi (decentralized finance)

• The maturity of Ethereum smart contracts and the launch of tests of Layer 2 expansion solutions (such as Optimism and Arbitrum) have reduced transaction costs and delays. Causing application outbreaks: Uniswap V3, Aave, Compound and other DeFi protocols locked total value (TVL) increased from 1.8 billion at the beginning of the year to 25 billion at the end of the year, attracting a large amount of funds and developers.

• Yield Farming: High-Aged Returns (APY) attracts retail investors and institutional arbitrage funds to influx. At that time, YF (yield finance, known as uncle-in-law in the industry) was once more expensive than BTC.

(2) NFT (non-fungible tokens) breaks the circle and mainstreaming

• Beeple's NFT work Everydays: The First 5000 Days was auctioned at Christie's for $69 million. The market value of NFT projects such as CryptoPunks, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) exceeded 10 billion US dollars. NFT trading platforms such as Opensea are emerging.

(3) Large-scale entry of institutional capital

• Tesla announced that it would buy $1.5 billion of Bitcoin and accept BTC payments.

• MicroStrategy continues to increase its holdings of Bitcoin (holding 124,000 BTC as of the end of 2021).

• Canada approves the first Bitcoin ETF (Purpose Bitcoin ETF, February 2021).

• Coinbase is listed directly on the Nasdaq (valuation of $86 billion).

(4) Global macroeconomic and monetary policy

• Liquidity flooding: The Federal Reserve maintains zero interest rates and quantitative easing policies, and funds pour into high-risk assets.

• Inflation expectations: The year-on-year increase of US CPI exceeded 7%, and Bitcoin was regarded by some investors as "digital gold" to hedge inflation.

(5) Mainstream society's acceptance increased

• Payment scenario extension: PayPal supports users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, and Visa allows USDC settlement.

• El Salvador lists Bitcoin as fiat currency (September 2021).

• Celebrity Effect: Public figures such as Musk and Snoop Dogg frequently mention cryptocurrencies and NFTs.

(6) Multi-chain ecological competition and innovation

• New public chains are rising: High-performance chains such as Solana, Avalanche, and Polygon attract users and developers due to low fees and high TPS.

• Cross-chain technology breakthroughs: Cosmos and Polkadot's cross-chain protocols promote asset interoperability.

(7) Meme Coin and Community Culture

• Phenomenon projects: Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) surged due to social media hype (DOGE's annual gain of more than 12,000%).

• Retail craze: Reddit forum WallStreetBets (WSB) and TikTok drive retail investors into the market.

Impact on subsequent markets

The 2021 bull market has promoted the institutionalization, compliance and technological diversification of cryptocurrencies, but has also exposed issues such as DeFi hacking and NFT bubbles. Since then, the industry's focus has shifted:

• Regulatory Compliance: The U.S. SEC strengthens scrutiny of stablecoins and securitized tokens.

• Sustainability: Ethereum turns to PoS (merger program), Bitcoin mining explores clean energy.

• Web3 Narrative: Metauniverse, DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) and other concepts have become the new focus.

5.3. When is the next bull market? 2025? What will be the theme?

The following is a predictive analysis of the potential bull market drivers of the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Combined with current industry trends, technological innovation and macroeconomic background, the reasons are summarized based on professional analysis within the industry and classic literature as follows:

(1) Web3 large-scale application and user sovereignty rise

Scenario implementation: Decentralized social networking (such as Nostr, Lens Protocol), on-chain games (AAA-level GameFi), and decentralized identity (DID) have become mainstream, and user data ownership and revenue distribution models have subverted the traditional Internet.

Key events: Meta, Google and other giants integrate blockchain technology and open cross-platform migration of user data.

Related technologies: Zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) are mature to ensure privacy and compliance.

(2) Deep integration of AI and blockchain

Decentralized AI network: Blockchain-based computing power market (such as Render Network) and AI model training data rights confirmation (such as Ocean Protocol) solve the monopoly problem of centralized AI.

Autonomous Agent Economy: AI-driven DAOs such as AutoGPT automatically execute on-chain transactions and governance, improving efficiency and creating new economic models.

(3) Global central bank digital currency (CBDC) interoperates with stablecoins

Policy promotion: CBDCs in major economies are launched (such as digital euros, digital dollars), forming a hybrid payment network with compliant stablecoins (such as USDC, EUROe).

Cross-chain settlement: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) leads the establishment of CBDC interoperability protocols, and cryptocurrencies become a key component of cross-border payment channels.

(4) Bitcoin Ecological Revival and Layer 2 Innovation

Bitcoin Layer 2 exploded: Lightning network capacity continues to hit new highs and the emergence of the TaprootAssets protocol. The RGB protocol supports the issuance of assets on-chain by Bitcoin, and the Stacks ecosystem introduces smart contract functions.

Institutional custody upgrades: BlackRock and Fidelity launch Bitcoin ETF options and mortgage lending services to release Bitcoin’s financial instrument attributes.

(5) Clear regulatory framework and comprehensive entry of institutions

Global compliance: The United States and Europe pass the Crypto Asset Market Act (MiCA) regulations to clarify token classification and exchange license system.

Traditional financial integration: JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs launch crypto derivatives and structured products, and the pension fund allocates cryptocurrency ratio exceeds 2%.

(6) Geo-conflict and de-dollarization narrative

Risk aversion demand: Geo-risk risks such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the situation in the Taiwan Strait have escalated, and cryptocurrencies have become neutral settlement tools.

Diversification of reserve assets: BRICS countries jointly issue trade settlement tokens based on blockchain, and some countries' government bonds are denominated in Bitcoin.

(7) Meme Culture 3.0 and Community DAO Translation

Next-generation Meme Coin: Combining AI-generated content (AIGC) and dynamic NFT Meme projects (such as the AI-driven "Immortal Dog" role), the community decides the direction of IP development through DAO votes.

Fan economic chain changes: Top stars such as Taylor Swift and BTS issue fan tokens to unlock exclusive content and participate in revenue sharing.

Note: In order not to leave any relevant possibilities, the above analysis data is retained more.

Through a summary of the bull market in 2017 and 2021, and an analysis of the possibilities in 2025, we can roughly refer to the figure below to make some judgments.


For mode:

The inscriptions of 2023 and the pumpfun phenomenon in 2024 are some phenomena that may break out in bull markets. If the problems of inscriptions and pumpfun themselves can be solved, there will be a more complete model, which may lead to the outbreak of a bull market in some areas. It is most likely related to issuing assets and trading assets.

For the field:

It is roughly generated in two fields: (1) the pure Web3 field ; (2) the combination of AI and web3.

Specific analysis:

Regarding (1) the rise of large-scale application of Web3 and the rise of user sovereignty, I personally judge that the infrastructure is not perfect enough and the wealth effect is not that strong. It is difficult to become the main factor or field of the bull market alone, or it will not become the main factor of this bull market.

Regarding (2) The deep integration of AI and web3, almost everyone has experienced the strength of AI. Will this field produce support factors for a bull market? It's really hard to judge... I personally prefer it to be a bit early. But it is hard to say in this field. The rapid explosion of phenomena such as DeepSeek and Manus are completely uncommon in the field of AI. What will happen to DeFi under AI-enabled?

For (4) Bitcoin ecological revival and Layer 2 innovation, Bitcoin has good price performance in the bull markets in 2017 and 2021. The current market value of Bitcoin accounts for 60% of the crypto market, and the wealth effect is strong enough. If there is a good model + good technology implementation in this field, the probability of a bull market will be very high.

For (7) Meme culture 3.0 and community DAOization, if meme culture solves the PVP problem and there is a continuous injection of external value, is it possible that it will become a driving factor in the bull market? Judging from the wealth effect, it is difficult.

Others (3), (5), and (6) should accelerate changes and will add icing on the cake to the bull market. The direct factors that produce bull market alone are not strong enough.

If it is a bull market in 2025, the most likely is:

Bitcoin Economy and Layer 2 Innovation, New Models Generated Based on New Asset Issuance and Transaction

The combination of AI and Web3, the transaction model empowered by AI

In addition to judging the fields and models, as for when the bull market will break out, we also need to look at external environmental factors.

The above judgment is purely personal thinking and does not constitute any investment advice.