Under the shadow of war, the crypto market has once again become a frightened bird?

Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

In the early morning of June 13, Bitcoin fell from $108,000 to $102,664, and the four-hour line saw a rare seven consecutive decline. Ethereum fell to $2,455 from around $2,800, and the four-hour line rarely saw nine consecutive declines. A number of altcoins have generally fallen sharply due to the influence of the market.

In terms of open contract data, according to Coinglass, the entire network was 1.12 billion US dollars in 24 hours, and the long order was 1.04 billion US dollars. The largest single liquidation order on the entire network occurred at Binance BTCUSDT worth US$201 million.

On June 12, glassnode monitoring data showed that Ethereum open contracts had just hit a record high, exceeding US$20 billion. Although ETH price has a slight correction from the $2800 level, market leverage continues to accumulate as traders use stablecoins to increase leverage.

In addition, after SharpLink Gaming, a listed company listed on "ETH MicroStrategy", submitted documents to the SEC for reporting "PIPE investors selling their shares", the stock price plummeted by about 70% after the market, which also had a significant negative impact on ETH.

The company filed a S-3ASR registration statement that allows for the resale of up to 58,699,760 shares of shares of more than 100 shareholders associated with its private equity investment (PIPE) financing. The market once believed that the statement stated that PIPE investors had sold their shares, and Joseph Lubin, chairman of the company's board of directors, posted on the X platform that the market "misunderstood" the S-3 document, which was only for potential resale of pre-registered shares. It is a standard procedure after PIPE transactions in the traditional financial field and does not represent actual selling.

The significant increase in open futures contracts shows that the main driving force behind this round of price increases is not spot buyers, but leveraged futures traders. Compared with Bitcoin, which is still dominated by spot demand, Ethereum's trend is differentiated. The recent surge in call options buying, coupled with the gamma hedging effect, put ETH at a clear risk of gaping. The market is becoming increasingly fragile and more sensitive to changes in momentum.

When the market is looking forward to Ethereum leading the counterfeit rebound with a strong desire, it turns its head down again. What exactly happened?

Israel and Iran have another military conflict

In the early morning of the 13th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Kats said that Israel launched an air strike on Iran. Katz said Israel is expected to be attacked by missile and drone shortly after launching a preemptive strike against Iran. According to Xinhua News Agency, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a statement on the 13th saying that the Israeli army's strike on Iran will "sustain for many days."

At present, Israel is in a state of emergency across the country. CNN quoted Israeli sources as saying that Israel is preparing for major retaliation from Iran, which will be larger than Iran's previous attacks on Israel. Sources said Israel intends to continue attacking Iran until it feels that Iran’s nuclear threat has been eliminated, although there are some questions within the Israeli security agencies as to whether it can actually achieve this through Israel’s actions alone. Israel has three main goals: Iran's nuclear facilities, military assets and key figures in the Iranian military.

Iran's state television station just released a message saying that unconfirmed reports said that General Salami, the commander of the Iranian paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, may have died in an Israeli attack. Another senior guard official and two nuclear scientists may have also been dead, the station added. The report provided no additional details.

Brent oil and WTI crude oil futures both rose by more than 8% in the international market. Nasdaq futures once fell to 2%, S&P 500 futures fell 1.8%, and Dow futures fell 1.6%. Spot gold once stood at $3,420 per ounce during the session, up nearly 1% during the day.

The Fed has not cut interest rates

Since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in December 2024, it has not relaxed its attitude towards interest rate cuts to this day.

US President Trump couldn't help but complain about this. Recently, he frequently expressed his hope on social media that the Fed wants to lower interest rates. "We have a lot of short-term debt, and I like long-term low-interest debt. If we lower interest rates by 1%, it means paying 1% less."

"It is recommended that the Fed cut interest rates by 200 basis points."

Powell did not retreat. The market is expected to fire Powell, but Trump also said that "it will not fire Fed Chairman Powell. He only needs to lower interest rates, and our inflation data is performing well."

Hedge fund giant Paul Tudor Jones said US President Trump will choose a "very dovish" Fed chairman.

Recently, after the release of CPI data and the core PPI in May of the United States, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and will start to cut interest rates in September this year.

At the moment when market liquidity is tightening, a slight breeze will easily cause a sharp decline in the market.

Black swan events occur frequently

The international market has been very unstable recently. On June 12, an Air India Aircraft Aircraft Model Boeing 787 crashed while flying to the UK. This is the first air crash of this model. Many media reported that the number of victims was more than 240, and Boeing's stock price fell by more than 6% due to this news.

After a fierce quarrel between Tesla founder Musk and US President Trump, he recently came to an end with Musk admitting his mistake. According to Reuters, U.S. President Trump praised Tesla, who said at a White House event targeting California's electric vehicle rules: "I like Tesla... I discussed electric vehicles with Musk," he said. "Musk does like me."

Riots in Los Angeles are still continuing, and curfews are imposed in some areas. The Global Times reported that at least 378 people have been arrested in Los Angeles since last Saturday. The mayor of Los Angeles announced on the evening of the 10th local time that it will impose a curfew in some areas of the city center from 20:00 to 6:00 on the 11th. The day of the curfew policy will be implemented, and the day after the assessment will be determined. The air confrontation between US President Trump and California Governor Newsom continues. Protests against law enforcement actions for illegal immigration have continued to spread from Los Angeles to other parts of the United States.

Follow-up market

Rui, investment manager at HashKey Capital, tweeted, "The liquidity of altcoins has reached a freezing point. Putting aside the new low trading volume of market makers, there is no buying or selling orders on the market, the price will naturally fall slowly. No one takes over the favorable price, and only 30 seconds of the robot buying order, the new coin will start to fall. Regardless of the rise and fall, the cycle of the altcoin market has become much shorter, and it is time to get off work if you can't catch it."