Trading Moment: Trump's "golden words" push gold to break $3380, with $66,000-67,000 considered a concentrated area of ​​Bitcoin short order stop loss

1. Market Observation

Keywords: MAGIC, ETH, BTC

Trump made a remark on social platforms this morning saying that "those who own gold set rules". Spot gold may be affected by its remarks and continued to rise after opening today, breaking through $3,380/ounce for the first time. New York gold futures were $3,375.9/ounce. The prices of jewelry and gold from many gold jewelry brands also rose, approaching 1,040 yuan/gram. At the same time, in the field of crypto assets, TreasureDAO officially transformed into the AI ​​agent companion track after announcing the end of game operations and Treasure Chain a few days ago. It will integrate with the SMOL series in the early stage, and its ecological token MAGIC rose more than 2 times on the weekend.

The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated in the range of $83,000 to $86,000 recently, and both bulls and bears have failed to fully control the market trend. Although Bitcoin has maintained the support level of $83,000, the bulls have not yet recovered the key moving average. Failure to maintain this level may trigger a new round of selling, and even push the price below $80,000. Greeks.live macro researcher Adam pointed out that the key BTC price is in the US$66,000-67,000, and many traders believe that this area is a concentrated area of ​​short order stop loss. 21Shares and economist Timothy Peterson both predict that Bitcoin price is expected to reach around $138,000 by the end of 2025, while Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad", believes that Bitcoin will reach $180,000-200,000 in 2025. At the same time, Swiss bank Sygnum pointed out that with the improvement of digital asset supervision and increased user participation, altcoins are expected to rebound in the second quarter of 2025. Macroeconomician Lyn Alden, who is relatively cautious, lowered the Bitcoin forecast price, expecting the Bitcoin price to be above $85,000 in 2025, and believes that "massive liquidity unlocking" may be the catalyst needed by Bitcoin.

Schwab Financial New CEO Rick Wurster revealed that the company plans to launch a direct spot cryptocurrency trading service within the next 12 months. He said that as the regulatory environment continues to improve, cryptocurrency trading services will become the "inevitable choice" for every large brokerage firm. According to statistics, 9 altcoins and 4 Meme tokens have submitted spot ETF applications, among which SOL and XRP are the most popular, with 6 and 10 institutions applying respectively. Among the altcoins that have submitted spot ETF applications, SOL, XRP, LTC, ADA and SUI are called "U.S. coins", while AVAX, APT, MOVE and TRX belong to WLFI's portfolio.

On the macro side, the US dollar index fell below the 99 mark, the first time since April 2022, and fell 0.57% intraday. Tony Pasquariello, head of Goldman Sachs hedge fund business, analyzed in his latest report that global capital flows are becoming the focus of market attention and gave three logics that the US dollar will fall sharply: the US dollar is overvalued by about 20%; the US "exceptionalism" is threatened by tariff policies, and tariffs will put huge pressure on US corporate profits and household purchasing power; the current situation is more like Brexit than the first trade war, and it is the confrontation between the United States and the world, making the foreign exchange market the focus. Goldman Sachs also pointed out that the unheld US dollar over-allocation amount in the United States after the global financial crisis reached US$2.2 trillion. These over-allocations will take time to lift. Currently, mainly euro zone investors are selling US stocks, while other regions are still steadily purchasing US assets.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on April 21)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $87,144.42 (-6.8% during the year), daily spot trading volume $22.899 billion

• Ethereum: $1,633.91 (-50.91% during the year), daily spot trading volume was $9.543 billion

• Corruption Index: 39 (Pandemic)

• Average GAS: BTC 1.55 sat/vB, ETH 0.33 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 63.1%, ETH 7.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: AERGO, LOOM, XRP, WCT, BTC

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.096

• The sector rises and falls: The AI ​​sector rises 3.98%, and the GameFi sector rises 1.71%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: 69,616 people worldwide were exposed, with a total liquidation amount of US$210 million. Its BTC liquidation is US$79.05 million, ETH liquidation is US$34.73 million, and SOL liquidation is US$10.21 million.

• BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper line ($84690.59), lower line ($83013.55)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line ($1634.94), lower line ($1602.57)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- and long-term bullish trend, and vice versa is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly in the range or in the short term, it is a bottom or top state.

3. ETF flow (EST from April 14 to April 17)

• Bitcoin ETF: $15.85 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$32.17 million

4. Looking forward today

• The Pectra client is expected to be released today, adding the EIP-7702 delegation status to JSON-RPC

• Coinbase has applied to CFTC to launch XRP futures and is expected to be launched today

• Binance Alpha and Binance contracts are launched on Balance (EPT)

• Cross-chain protocol will issue $HYPER airdrop on April 22, with 57% of the total supply being allocated to community users

• Kraken will launch BNB spot trading pairs at 10 pm on April 22

• Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 210,000 tokens on April 21, worth approximately $47.7 million

• Scroll (SCR) will unlock 40 million tokens on April 22, worth approximately $111 million

• SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 12.65 million tokens on April 22, with a ratio of 2.94% to the current circulation and a value of approximately US$2.4 million.

The biggest increase in the top 500 market value today: MAGIC rose 40.66%, AURORA rose 33.33%, ENJ rose 31.11%, GFI rose 20.30%, and SOS rose 19.42%.

5. Hot News

• Weekly Preview | Initia will be launched on the main network and listed on Binance; US SEC holds its third roundtable for crypto policy, which will focus on hosting issues

• Data: Tokens such as UDS, VENOM, ALT will usher in large amounts of unlocking, of which UDS unlocking is worth about US$14.9 million

• Macro outlook this week: The Fed's "verbal storm" is coming, Powell's chair is unstable?

• Metaplanet purchases 330 BTC again, and the total holdings increase to 4,855

• Raydium LaunchLab was launched in 5 days and created 3,761 tokens, with a graduation rate of only 1.12%.

• Spot gold hits a new high, now at $3,360 per ounce

• ai16z founder called Auto.fun native token ai16z

• Bitcoin price hits $84,600 in 2025, the highest in nearly 17 years

• Retail investors dominate the index on Binance, while Coinbase Prime is only 18.3%

• Moonshot launches Wizard Gang ($Wizard)

• Abraxas Capital has increased its holdings of approximately 2,949 BTC in the past four days, worth over US$250 million

• CryptoQuant: The group holding coins for 3-6 months has recently transferred about 170,000 BTC, which may trigger price fluctuations

• Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 1.42% to 123.23 T, setting a record high

• Glassnode: Bitcoin giant whales are still in a strong accumulation area, and the decline wedge pattern indicates a potential bullish reversal

• Santiment: Holding 100,000 to 10,000 BTC wallets, increasing their holdings by more than 53,600 BTC since March 22

• Sygnum: Improved digital asset regulation and improved user engagement are expected to drive altcoins to rebound in Q2

• Analysis: BTC may remain in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 US dollars in the short term, and liquidity catalysts are needed to promote BTC to continue to rise