Trading moment: Bitcoin has a supply gap in the range of 70,000 to 80,000 yuan, and FOMC interest rate resolution has become the focus of the market

Reprinted from panewslab

03/18/2025·3M

Trading moment: Bitcoin has a supply gap in the range of 70,000 to 80,000
yuan, and FOMC interest rate resolution has become the focus of the
market

1. Market Observation

Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC

Yesterday YZi Labs announced its investment in Plume Network, driving the RWA sector to rebound. QCP Capital's latest analysis shows that despite the constant market noise, Bitcoin remains stable above $80,000, showing strong resilience. Standard Chartered Bank even said that if Trump's "crypto reserve" plan is successfully implemented in 2025, combined with the halving effect of Bitcoin supply, it may push the price of Bitcoin to soar to $500,000.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended and the price is expected to show a 6-12-month bearish or sideways trend. He pointed out that every on-chain indicator predicts the arrival of a bear market. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger is cautious about the market outlook, warning that global trade tensions and concerns about the slowdown in the U.S. economy may lead to continued adjustments in U.S. stocks, which will drag Bitcoin back to the $73,000-74,000 range. In contrast, David Duong, research director of Coinbase Institutional, is relatively optimistic, believing that the current market sell-off is mainly affected by macro factors and liquidity, and the situation is expected to improve in the next quarter. He specifically pointed out that as bank reserve levels approach the 10-11% range of GDP, the Fed may adjust its quantitative tightening (QT) plan to maintain financial stability, which will support asset prices.

From a technical perspective, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has a significant supply gap in the range of $70,000 to $80,000. The area has short trading hours, fewer positions, and weak support. At present, about 20% of the Bitcoin supply is in a loss-making state, with a holding cost higher than the current price of $83,000. If it falls below the $80,000 support level, $73,000 will become the key support level.

In the Ethereum market, Standard Chartered Bank recently significantly lowered its ETH price forecast at the end of 2025, adjusting from $10,000 to $4,000. This adjustment mainly takes into account factors such as the Layer 2 expansion plan weakening the ETH market value and the possibility of continuing to decline in the ETH/BTC ratio. It is worth noting that the Ethereum Foundation is actively listening to community feedback and exploring operational changes to adapt to market changes.

In terms of regulation and policy, QCP Capital said that the US CPI data was lower than expected last week, although it provided a temporary respite, the possibility of the Fed turning to dovish amid continued tariff risks and inflation concerns is still limited. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, but market volatility may remain at a high level amid policy uncertainty.

Macquarie's latest report warned the overall market, pointing out that Trump's economic policies could trigger a sharp adjustment in the stock market. Unless trade policy turns to moderate and reduces spending, real U.S. consumer spending may slow significantly. Currently, the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 8% from its previous month's high, and the Nasdaq has pulled back nearly 12% from its peak in December last year. Against this backdrop, the market closely monitors the results of this week's Fed FOMC meeting, especially potential adjustments to the quantitative tightening plan, which could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market trends.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 18)

Bitcoin: $82,671.90 (-11.31% during the year), daily spot trading volume $24.471 billion
Ethereum: $1,894.96 (-42.82%), daily spot trading volume is $11.089 billion
Corruption Index: 34 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.4 Gwei
Market share: BTC 60.7%, ETH 8.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, UXLINK, AUCTION, BTC, CARV
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9681
Sector rises and falls: RWA sector rises 9%, BSC Ecology rises 2.68%
24-hour liquidation data: 101,237 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$182 million, with a BTC liquidation of US$44.73 million and ETH liquidation of US$29.98 million