Trading Moment: As Bitcoin hits 106,000 resistance, some BTC and ETH giant whales began to short before the results of Sino-US negotiations and CPI were announced.

1. Market Observation

Keywords: SOL, ETH, BTC

The global financial market is ushering in positive changes. China and the United States reached important consensus at the talks held in Geneva, Switzerland over the weekend. The two sides agreed to establish an economic and trade consultation mechanism to lay the foundation for resolving differences. Trump praised the negotiations on social media for "massive progress", and his Treasury Secretary Becente and Trade Representative Greer also said they would share more details today. In addition, the United States will release April CPI data on May 13. Previously, CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month in March, hitting a new low in the past five years, and the core CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, the lowest level in four years. However, analysts expect this ease of inflationary pressure may be difficult to sustain, especially after the Trump administration implements a comprehensive tariff policy. David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said this could be the calm before the inflation storm. Observers pointed out that the U.S. government's move to impose tariffs may push up inflation in the coming months, which may have an impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data to be released to assess the specific impact of tariff transmission effects on the U.S. economy.

Ethereum is replacing Bitcoin and leading the recent crypto market. The price of Bitcoin over the weekend is almost the same as on Friday, with no obvious fluctuations. The market expects that today's opening of US stocks and the results of Sino-US negotiations will affect the direction of Bitcoin. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that market data shows that current liquidity is mainly concentrated around $104,000, with $106,000 becoming the next key resistance level, but some traders are cautious about short-term trends, worried that a "false breakthrough" may occur and then fall back to $102,000 or lower. Ethereum performed particularly well after the successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade, exceeding US$2,600 on the weekend, with a single week increase of nearly 40%, driving the recovery of the entire crypto ecosystem. The market has begun to look forward to the next major upgrade of Fusaka before the end of the year. Although some institutions have recently started to purchase Ethereum and Bitcoin, such as Abraxas Capital withdraws 185,309 Ethereum (currently worth about US$470 million) from Binance within 3 days, this part of ETH has been deposited into Aave and Compound, and the institution previously purchased more than US$250 million in Bitcoin in mid-April. But it is worth noting that many giant whales and Clever Money have started shorting and selling BTC, ETH and SOL today.

The altcoin market has shown signs of recovery recently, with a slight pullback today. DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev revealed last Friday that they are buying a large number of small currencies and considering building strategic reserves. However, analysts have differences on the sustainability of the market. Among them, 2Lambroz believes that the peak season of altcoins may have arrived, but the market lacks a strong story and retail investors are not clearly entering the market; while technical personnel point out that the current market structure is similar to 2016 and 2020, and small currencies may usher in explosive growth after the accumulation period. Two popular Meme coins appeared in the chain last weekend: one is the $USELESS token that focuses on "uselessness", which has received the support of the founder of Bonk; the other is the new character, Mouse Frog, $RATO, created by the father of Pepe. MOODENG and GOAT, which are online at Binance Alpha, have also performed well recently. Since May 8, MOODENG has risen from $0.0396 to $0.294 (up 642%), and GOAT has risen from $0.07 to $0.2428 (up 247%). In addition, the TRUMP dinner rankings will be closed at 1:30 am on May 13, and the top 220 dinner eligibility will be determined. Some traders bet on TRUMP's future market, a new wallet withdraws $7.6 million from Binance and OKX today.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on May 12)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $104,008 (+11.2%), daily spot trading volume $27.02 billion

• Ethereum: $2,517.00 (Year-Date--24.26%), daily spot trading volume is $23.22 billion

• Corruption Index: 70 (greed)

• Average GAS: BTC 1. sat/vB, ETH 1.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 61.8%, ETH 9.1%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, DOGE, BTC, MOVE, PUNDIX

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0342

• sector rises and falls: Meme sector rises 3.52%, AI sector rises 1.28%

• 24-hour liquidation data: 136,060 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of US$337 million, and its BTC liquidation was US$42.58 million, ETH liquidation was US$104 million, and MOODENG liquidation was US$22.64 million

• BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper line ($100,217.67), lower line ($98,233.16)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line ($2151.34), lower line ($2108.74)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- and long-term bullish trend, and vice versa is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly in the range or in the short term, it is a bottom or top state.

3. ETF flow (as of May 9)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$321.46 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$17.61 million (3 consecutive days of net outflow)

4. Looking forward today

• US SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will deliver a keynote speech on asset tokenization on the 12th

• US SEC plans to hold its fourth crypto roundtable, with executives including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Nasdaq attending

• sns.sol will airdrop SNS tokens on May 13, and users will have 90 days to receive token allocation

• Binance will launch the Alpha Points Consumption Mechanism on May 13. If the user successfully participates in TGE or receives airdrops, the system will deduct a certain number of Alpha Points.

• Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 2 a.m. on May 13, with a ratio of 1.82% to the current circulation, worth approximately US$67.5 million.

The United States has not adjusted its annual CPI rate in April (20:30 on May 13)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 2.4% / Expected: 2.4%

The monthly CPI rate after the seasonal adjustment in the United States in April (May 13th 20:30)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: -0.1% / Expected: 0.3%

The biggest increase in the top 500 market value today : MOODENG rose 118.78%, GOAT rose 56.18%, CHILLGUY rose 54.54%, FWOG rose 52.13%, and TOSHI rose 37.56%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as APT, ARB, AVAX will be unlocked in large amounts, of which APT unlocking is worth approximately US$67.5 million

• Preview of this week | US April CPI data will be revealed; VanEck plans to launch new encryption-related ETFs

• Macro outlook this week: CPI data may touch the stagflation trading script, BTC may face the support test of $100,000

• FTX/Alameda address unstaked 187,625 SOLs 8 hours ago, equivalent to $32.24 million

• Another giant whale opened short with 40 times leverage worth $44 million BTC, with a liquidated price of $112,660

• Irish presidential candidate Conor McGregor to meet with President El Salvador to discuss strategic Bitcoin reserves

• A giant whale once again deposited 5 million USDC into Hyperliquid, shorting BTC, ETH and SOL with 5 times leverage

• Encrypted KOL Patricio Worthalter sells 2,000 ETH for 5.01 million USDC

• "Hyperliquid 50x giant whale" opened the BTC again after 35 days

• A new wallet withdraws $7.6 million worth of TRUMP from Binance and OKX

• BlackRock Bitcoin ETF net inflows hit the longest inflow record for the year for 20 consecutive days, with Goldman Sachs' IBIT holdings growing by 28% in Q1

• Canadian tech company Matador plans to raise $3 million, with some net income intended to increase Bitcoin

• Guotai Junan International plans to build tokenized securities business

• "What happened to Ethereum with 40% surge in 3 days" has topped the top spot in Douyin's hot list

• Ethereum's market value surpasses Coca-Cola and rises to 40th place in global asset market value

• Binance Alpha launches MOODENG and GOAT

• ether.fi Foundation: 437,000 ETHFIs have been repurchased this week, spending 137 ETHs

• DWF Labs Partner: Buying a large number of different altcoins, considering building strategic reserves