There are endless bottom lines, is the crypto market really going to be in a desperate situation?

Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

On March 31, the daily chart of Bitcoin has fallen four consecutive times, falling from $87,000 to $81,000. Ethereum is even more dismal, with the daily chart falling seven times in a row, falling from around $2,100 to $1,800. Solana hovered around $130, with a large number of altcoins falling more than they rose. According to CoinMarketCap data, the fear index is 24, and it is still extremely panic.

According to coinglass data, the total open position in the entire network was US$213 million in 24 hours, and the long position was RMB163 million. The largest liquidation occurred on Binance’s ETH/USDT, worth $13.3084 million.

Since the market hit a top in December last year, it has fallen for three consecutive months, and retail investors are in a sluggish mood. Will the market improve in the future?

Bitcoin spot ETF has net inflows for 10 consecutive days, but the speed

has slowed down

The recent performance of Bitcoin spot ETF data has been relatively impressive. Since March 14, its net inflow has exceeded net outflows for 10 consecutive days, and its net inflows exceeded US$100 million on March 17, 18 and 20. However, since March 21, its net inflows have not exceeded US$100 million. On March 28, the net outflow of spot ETFs was US$93 million, ending the 10-day continuous net inflows.

Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum spot ETFs seem very pessimistic. Since this month, net inflows have only been achieved on the 2nd day, and the rest have not been net outflows. The performance of its currency price can also be imagined. Ethereum's sluggish performance has also greatly dragged down the performance of a number of altcoins, especially L2 and re-staking tracks.

Market hedging April 2 US tariff policy

On March 31, the Japanese stock market fell 4%, the South Korean stock index fell to 2.3%, and the US futures also fell in the early trading. With the US tariff policy coming to an end on April 2, market uncertainty will reach a new peak. According to CCTV News on Saturday, local time learned on March 28 that U.S. President Trump plans to announce new tariffs in the next few days. He said he is open to reaching tariff agreements with other countries, but he hinted that any agreement will be reached after the tariff measures take effect on April 2.

In its latest report, Citi summarized three main scenarios and gave corresponding market impacts. First, only reciprocal tariffs were announced, and the market response in this scenario was relatively limited; second, reciprocal tariffs plus value-added tax (VAT), the US dollar index may immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, and global stock markets may also fall; third, in addition to reciprocal tariffs and value-added tax, it also includes industry tariffs, and the market response may be more severe in this scenario.

After the S&P 500 suffered its worst first quarter since 2020, analysts warned that the potential possibility of subsequent declines is greater than the rise, and analysis pointed out that future tariffs and retaliation actions are key, and the market response on April 2 will largely depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs and the speed of other countries' response to reciprocity tariffs.

The crypto market led by Bitcoin is increasingly close to the US stock market, so as the first risk asset to bear the brunt of it, it will also face huge fluctuations before and after the policy is announced. In addition, on the evening of April 4, the United States will release unemployment rate and non-farm employment data, and Powell will deliver a keynote speech next. With intensive data and policies coming, some market investors choose to leave and wait and see.

Follow-up market

Mike McGlone, commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, analyzed that the market should now focus on ETH price trends, because there is a clear link between ETH and the prices of other risky assets on the market, and ETH may fall further if stocks in the S&P 500 continue to be weak. Meanwhile, Mike McGlone believes that returning to the $2,000 level ETH may point the way for risky assets, however, if Bitcoin fails to resume stable price growth, it may exacerbate the altcoins to fall into losses, especially the top altcoins will continue to weaken, and even trigger ETH to fall back to the $1,000 price level later this year.

David Duong, chief strategy research director at Coinbase, said that the market response will be relatively calm on April 2, but the warning here is that no one is ready for this, mainly because there are too many variables to track and too many paths to consider. This puts us in some extreme possibilities, especially in terms of performance in specific industries and its greater impact on the economy. However, as the earnings season will soon be the next major focus, the market will not be ready to take a major view until mid-April.

Real Vision founder Paoul forwarded the global liquidity M2 and Bitcoin price charts and stated that the market is in the bottom range.