The way to survive for crypto investors: Loser game, survival is the king

Author: degenspartan, eGirl Capital

Source:eGirl Capital official website

Compiled by: TechFlowGPT

Charles D Ellis (a living senior investment expert) classifies modern (traditional finance) investment as a "loser game" (I agree with that too).

There are two types of games:

• Winner Game : Victory is determined by superior skills that exceed expectations

• Loser Game : Victory is determined only by making fewer mistakes than other players

Early on, cryptocurrencies were a winner game – participating and winning required above-average technical knowledge.

Today, I think cryptocurrencies have largely turned into a loser game – just surviving is enough to win.

(This is not a binary turning point, but a change that has taken place since 2020 with the gradual increase in professional player participation)

But please note: whether it is in cryptocurrencies, traditional financial markets, or most things in life, there will always be winners and losers.

Take the Meme currency craze (the manifestation of speculative behavior in this cycle) as an example. To win, you may need some technical knowledge, understanding smart contracts, monitoring liquidity pools, and maybe having a cute group of fans on Twitter so that you can exit liquidity and sell.

Win is winning, whether you cross legal or moral boundaries or not. I won't say it's right, but I do admit it's a way (recognition does not mean recognition).

If your inner sense of justice begins to burn, let me warmly welcome you to the crypto world. If you can make money without permission, you can lose money in the same way too, the Lazarus (North Korean hacker) says hello to you. From the perspective of the loser game, you "win" because you don't participate at all because you know you don't have a significant and lasting advantage to really win.

Meme coins are zero-sum (and possibly even negative-sum) games, but that doesn't mean no one can make money. There must be someone making money, the question is, are you the one who makes money? There is an old saying that if you can't find that novices on the poker table, then the novices may be yourself, and this seems appropriate here.

Another case, winner in the winner game:

As a degen, I was personally involved in the crazy frontline of Food Farming (remarks: referring to the DeFi summer period), and I was mining worthless tokens.

My advantage at the time was to be sober and know that these tokens are worthless, so I understand that long-term holding of these tokens or participating in a tempting high APR 2 pool (Pool 2) is suicide.

So, as a cautious person, I dug up a large number of tokens that are about to be worthless from a pool (Pool 1) and repeatedly pull funds from the liquidity pool until they get zeroed.

The winners in the loser game are those who didn’t participate in DeFi farms at all and were able to survive the 2021 bull market, and the competitors have already eliminated themselves.

The key lies in the advantages

What I want to say is that in any game, you need an advantage to win.

I know this sounds unfair to the average speculator who doesn’t have a fan base to dump tokens at will, but life is unfair.

The correct response is not to complain about the injustice to ordinary speculators, but to reflect on what to do in real situations. Do your best, dig deeper and do "due diligence" so that your trench tactics can give you an advantage? I'm not sure about this.

Immediately someone would refute my anti-trenches cautious mentality, believing that I am already rich, so I am high and no longer need to fight in the trenches for 100 times the gains.

However, let me remind you clearly that there is evidence on the chain that I only have 1 Ether, so if anyone needs to fight in the trenches, brothers and sisters in the currency circle, it should be me.

To some extent, we are all playing dumping games with each other—everyone is just operating in different time periods.

How to gain an advantage?

So, if you are not actually a genius, how do you gain an advantage?

Look beyond the game and see the overall situation.

You win by choosing to play only the games you have the advantage and survive.

Specifically:

Whether the market has peaked, or whether it's just a bear trap (that's the biggest trap I've ever seen, by the way) (but at the same time, they won't trap me), this surprisingly isn't that important.

The most important thing is that you can survive, no matter what happens. I think it just involves laying down enough money so that you are never forced to sell too early or to participate in the Hunger Games with negative expectations that you don't have an advantage.

A portfolio that contains only cash and cryptocurrencies, if the scale is right, will allow you to stay "stupid" for longer than most people without going bankrupt.

This is my loneliness fortress.

(Okay, at least this is my version. The gambler version is actually more defensive because you live on interest from your portfolio, while my version is artificially creating a payment that matches your spending by dividing the portfolio into upside risk and defense funds, which can only last your funding reserve time.)

Instead of investing 100% in cryptocurrency, why not reduce it a little bit, such as 90% cryptocurrency and 10% cash? Or any number that suits you to ensure survival while maintaining exposure to the market.

What if the market has reached its peak - and you have a lot of cash + other crypto assets - the market is in a slump for the next 4 years?

Have no worries. You'll be fine. And most other people—maybe different.

What if this was the biggest bear trap I've ever seen (and by the way, it won't trap me) and you're sitting on a lot of cash + other crypto assets? What you end up with is not super amazing gains, but amazing gains.

Play the world's smallest violin and mourn for you to be just a billionaire, not a billionaire.

Anyway, my point is that the real tangible advantage you can create for yourself and use to win is not death.

Survive, you will slowly notice that people around you often slap their heads on their own (too early?).

Those suits and ties who are publicly identifiable won’t talk about this because they can’t. They don't have this advantage. They need to write reports, tweet to be thought leaders, perform worse than benchmarks, and try to please investors.

Only individuals like you and me can truly adopt this strategy and take advantage of this. Sitting in your fortress of loneliness and saying "go to yours" to everyone else doesn't need to be a last resort - it's a lifestyle to choose and enjoy.

Simple way to win

You don't need to do anything fancy or special to win.

You don't need leverage, options, perpetual contracts, futures, etc. In fact, you hardly need to know or do anything. Abandon all this. Enjoy the eternal sunshine without thoughts.

You just need not do anything stupid, while others are fighting each other, killing each other, and breaking themselves financially. The weak are eliminated from the group. The strong survive, we survive and wait for another day to die.

As long as you don't die.

If you survive, you have no choice but to succeed.