The "cyclical curse" of the crypto market: Why do we lose everything again and again even though we know that the bubble will burst?

Author: hitesh.eth

Compiled: Tim, PANews

When I understood the true potential of Bitcoin in early 2017, that shock was like discovering a new spark in the digital era. This is not a new alternative asset, but a completely new paradigm, a technology that redefines money.

A decentralized system that is not subject to arbitrary intervention by the government and central banks provides financial autonomy to anyone who chooses to participate. It is not only an investment act, but also a financial revolution. I hope everyone around me can understand what I see.

I prepared a very long message and sent it to 100 people through WhatsApp. I suggested that everyone buy Bitcoin. I also recommended a consulting service that can help them increase their Bitcoin holdings. Although I had some initial success in altcoin investment at the time, I thought it would be no difficult to double everyone's Bitcoin assets within a few months. But at that time my understanding of the market was still in its infancy and I failed to fully understand how narrative logic and emotional changes drive price trends in this young market.

Based on the limited available data at the time, I gradually formed an awareness of the market. Most altcoins launched between 2015 and 2017 do not have a long lack of transaction history cycles to learn from. Their price charts show a seemingly eternal and eternal upward trend, and the slight pullback in between is like a "pause button" before a new round of rises.

Buy, hold, wait, and then watch your position value continue to rise. This pattern is intoxicating. The "design" concept of the cryptocurrency market seems to only rise but not fall, and this idea has quietly taken root in my heart. The market fluctuations at that time did not scare me, I felt that this was just a part of the experience.

In theory, I had firmly believed that I could deal with those market pullbacks with a normal mind, but the first major adjustment in the second quarter of 2017 completely shattered this fantasy. This is not a simple callback, but a crash. The tokens that ranked first in the first quarter hit a new low, with a drop of 70-80%, and our beliefs collapsed instantly.

As the assets held are shrinking, excitement turns into panic, and optimism turns into suspicion. But I still continue to persevere, believing that this is just the torment before the next round of rise. But later, instead of doubled my Bitcoin position, I reduced my position by 70-80% and returned to the original starting point.

Market uncertainty followed one after another. Bitcoin soared from $10,000 to $20,000, while altcoins struggled to recover. The market sentiment around Bitcoin is in chaos. Today it is still regarded as the future of currency. Tomorrow there will be overwhelming reports of "death" that will flood the media: China's ban, regulatory crackdowns, and hacker attacks. Every negative news will cause storm in the market. My initial firm belief began to shake. Are we really on the verge of the financial revolution? Or is this just another speculative bubble that is destined to burst?

Then the time came January 2018, and this month completely refreshed me and completely refreshed my market awareness. Altcoins not only rebounded, but also experienced explosive growth. TRX has increased 100 times in just a few weeks, and countless projects that have been criticized have returned strongly, some soaring ten times, and some have increased more. The market is in a craze, and everyone thinks they are an investment genius.

The anxiety of the past few months has disappeared with the emergence of a green candle of a green sun. Just like that, a new understanding has formed in my mind: perhaps this is the operating law of the market. After a catastrophic callback, its return will be even more violent.

This belief casts a veil of deception before our eyes. We try to use the "new normal" and believe that every plunge is just a foreshadowing for the next surge. We are waiting for the return of the "green month" and firmly believe that patience will eventually pay off. But until now, all this has never come. The market continues to lose blood, and the once exciting capital game has gradually evolved into a slow and painful reality: it turns out that we have long been trapped by our high expectations. This cycle played with us.

Every cycle has extremely fanatical moments, and in the last cycle we saw the same scenario happening in the NFT field. Some NFT series soared 100 times in a short period of time, and such "crazy 30 days" appeared three times in a row. It feels like it was in 2018. The mentality of hype, firm belief that "this is just the beginning", FOMO, everything is surprisingly similar. When the market continues to rise after two pullbacks, we thought: "This may be the operation of the market" and chose HODLing. However, the ending was staged again: we lost everything. I've suffered heavy losses on NFTs as usual.

People often say "Getting from one mistake can lead to wisdom", but the market always has ways to make you forget. Your mind will deceive you and make you believe this time is really different. "I know what's going on with this game now and won't make the same mistake again." But the invisible trap will always exist. The illusion of self-control and cracking the wealth code will make you participate in the market for too long. Ultimately, the market is the winner. Over time, you may learn to reduce your losses, but the result will definitely be a loss.

Recently, we have once again witnessed a repeat of history. This time it's the AI ​​Agent track. It soared 100 times shortly after the public launch, and IC0 seemed to have made a sudden comeback. All this seemed to have been reproduced yesterday, but it was replaced with a layer of coat. We believe again that this cycle of carnival may last for weeks or even months.

We are making mistakes and falling down, we know what we are doing, but we can't stop it from happening, and in fact, we can't control our emotions.

Maybe now, you are emotionally thinking that everything is over and only a few currencies will rebound. But the market is always the opposite of expectations, and this time it will still use the same trick again. You may be forced to go to the table or get out, and in my opinion, this is the ending that most retail investors are destined to face now.

The only way to help you win in this capital game is to maximize returns when you go to the table and minimize losses when you get out. Of course, it is easier said than done.