The implementation of OCC policy: the interweaving interpretation of the new turning point in the crypto industry and market sentiment

Author: Spirit, Golden Finance

introduction

On March 7, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued the "Interpretation Letter 1183", marking a major turning point in the regulatory framework of the US banking industry in the field of crypto. The new policy revokes the requirement that banks need to obtain regulatory approval in advance for conducting crypto business, allowing the National Bank and the Federal Savings Association to directly participate in crypto asset custody, issuance of US dollar stablecoins, and run blockchain nodes. The implementation of this policy not only paves the way for the integration of traditional finance and crypto ecosystems, but also triggers violent fluctuations in market sentiment and subtle fluctuations in Bitcoin prices in the past 24 hours. This article will take OCC policy as the core, deeply analyze its impact on the crypto industry, and combine current market sentiment and changes in Bitcoin transaction data to explore the multiple significance of this event.

1. The core and breakthrough of OCC policy

Policy details

The core of the OCC new policy lies in "de-barrierization". Specifically:

• Crypto Asset Custody: Banks can directly store crypto asset private keys for customers, providing higher security than existing wallets.

• Stablecoin issuance: Allows banks to hold stablecoin reserves and issue digital currencies pegged to USD, competing with USDT, USDC, etc.

• Blockchain node: Banks can become verifiers of distributed ledgers, directly participate in network consensus, and improve the security and credibility of blockchain.

At the same time, the OCC revoked the "cautionary statement" jointly issued with the FDIC and Fed in 2023, which had curbed banks from entering the field by emphasizing the liquidity and market risks of crypto assets. This policy adjustment clearly requires banks to carry out crypto business under the traditional risk management framework and no longer set up additional regulatory barriers.

Historical background

Since the OCC first allowed banks to provide crypto custody services in 2020, U.S. regulators’ attitudes towards crypto have gone through a shift from cautious temptation to gradual opening up. The 2023 caution statement was once regarded as a continuation of "Operation Chokepoint 2.0", limiting the cooperation between banks and crypto companies. Now, under the promotion of the Trump administration (the executive order for Bitcoin strategic reserves was signed on March 7), the new OCC policy is interpreted as the fulfillment of the promise of "end crypto bank restrictions", marking the shift of regulation from "containment" to "integration".

Breakthrough significance

• Institutional entry accelerates: As the pillar of traditional finance, banks' participation will inject stable funds and technical support into the crypto market, which may promote the long-term value of assets such as Bitcoin.

• Reshaping the competitive landscape: Banks issue stablecoins that may challenge existing giants (such as Tether) and reconstruct DeFi and payment ecosystems.

• Decentralization Challenge: The joining of bank nodes may increase the risk of network centralization, causing controversy among the community over the "decentralization spirit".

2. Instant response to market sentiment

X Platform Emotional Observation

The discussions on social media X over the past 24 hours reflect the complex sentiment of the market towards OCC policy:

• Optimists: Users such as @0xJamesTang called it "a stealth nuclear bomb in a bear market", believing that bank nodes and stablecoins will pave the way for institutional funds to enter the market, which will benefit the crypto ecosystem in the long run.

• Caution: Some users (such as @jianguotz) pointed out that although policies bring clarity in regulatory, they may also exacerbate the contradiction between decentralization and environmental issues, and the short-term effect remains to be seen.

• Pessimist: The market liquidity sluggish over the weekend and the policy digestion period was superimposed. User @otakustw mentioned that "Bitcoin continues to fall, and altcoins may have opportunities", reflecting the uncertainty about the short-term trend.

Emotional drivers

• Positive expectations: OCC policy is regarded as "the endorsement of traditional finance" and boosts investors' confidence in institutional participation.

• Weekend effect: March 9 is Sunday, the market trading volume is relatively low, and sentiment fluctuations have not been completely converted into price momentum.

• Uncertainty: The bank's specific implementation plan has not been clarified yet, and investors are waiting for more details.

3. Bitcoin price fluctuations and market trends

Bitcoin price briefly rose to $92,000 after the release of the OCC policy (March 7), and then fell about 2%-3% in 24 hours due to low trading volume on the weekend.

• Changes in trading volume: The average daily trading volume shrinks on weekends, lower than the working day level, reflecting the wait-and-see sentiment of the market.

• Altcoin performance: Ethereum may adjust with Bitcoin, while some Layer-2 tokens (such as ARB, OP) rebounded slightly (5%-10%) due to bank node positive effects.

Reasons for fluctuations

• Short-term pressure: insufficient liquidity over the weekend limits the immediate realization of favorable policies, and retail investors' selling has intensified adjustments.

• Medium-term potential: If banks run nodes or issue stablecoins in the next few weeks, they may push up Bitcoin’s computing power and network activity, supporting prices to rebound.

• External factors: OCC policy is superimposed with Trump’s executive order on March 7, and the market expects institutional funds to gradually enter the market in Q2.

4. The long-term impact of OCC policy

Industry level

• Bank role reshaping: Traditional banks may become "new players" in the crypto market, providing custody, payment and node services, and competing with CEXs such as Coinbase and Binance.

• Stablecoin Market: Bank-issued dollar stablecoins may weaken Tether (USDT) dominance and promote compliance competition.

• Regulatory coordination: The new OCC policy may prompt the SEC, CFTC and other institutions to accelerate the formulation of encryption rules and form a unified framework.

Market level

• Funding structure: The proportion of institutional funds may rise from the current 30% to 40%-50%, reducing market volatility.

• User growth: The traditional users reached by banks (far more than crypto-native users) will accelerate the popularity of the industry, and may add millions of new users. ****

• Risk points: Bank centralization may trigger a community rebound, and decentralization and compliance needs need to be balanced.

Global perspective

The loosening of US policy may stimulate other countries (such as the EU and Japan) to adjust their crypto-regulatory stances and accelerate competition between global central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins. China's digital RMB (DC/EP) may further make efforts in cross-border payments to hedge the impact of the United States.

5. Market sentiment and Bitcoin’s future prospects

Short term (1-2 weeks)

• Sentiment: The market may gradually turn to optimism after digesting policy details, paying attention to the first batch of bank pilot news.

• Price: Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of 90,000 to 95,000 US dollars. If it breaks through 95,000, it may challenge the 100,000 mark.

Medium term (3-6 months)

• Sentiment: Institutional entry and stablecoin issuance will boost confidence, but community concerns about centralization may cause controversy.

• Price: If bank nodes operate on a large scale, the increase in Bitcoin computing power may push the price to $110,000-120,000.

Long-term (1-2 years)

• Sentiment: The integration of encryption and traditional finance has deepened, market sentiment has become stable, and we pay attention to global regulatory coordination.

• Price: Bitcoin’s position as a strategic reserve asset is consolidated, or may be stable at more than US$150,000.

Conclusion

The implementation of the OCC policy is an important turning point in the crypto industry in 2025. It not only breaks the barriers between banks and the crypto ecosystem, but also injects new momentum into Bitcoin's move from marginal assets to mainstream finance. Market sentiment and price fluctuations in the past 24 hours show that investors are still waiting and watching in the short term, but the long-term potential cannot be ignored. In the future, with the specific implementation of banks and the response of global regulation, the crypto market may usher in a new round of growth cycle. The evolution of Bitcoin is moving from "digital gold" to "strategic cornerstone", and in this process, the interweaving of market sentiment and price fluctuations will continue to provide us with an observation window.