The crypto market has declined across the board. What do institutions and traders think about the future market?

Author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News

On March 11, the market was seriously concerned as the risk of the U.S. recession increased. As of the close, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.08%, closing down nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq fell 4%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.

Large technology stocks plummeted, with Tesla plummeting 15.43%, the largest single-day decline in more than four years. The market value evaporated by US$130 billion overnight, and the stock price "cut halfway" from its historical high.

At the same time, Bitcoin continued to fall, officially falling below $80,000. As of press time, Bitcoin was reported at $79,090, falling to $76,560, a single-day drop of more than 8%. In addition, Ethereum fell below $1,800 in a short time and fell to around $1,760 in the lowest. The positions of several ETH giant whale were liquidated, and the addresses of leveraged long positions with 1,500 weETH (total debt is approximately 2.27 million DAI) have been liquidated. After the ETH price fell below $1,800, its 643.78 weETH (worth approximately $1.23 million) was confiscated.

Another giant whale on Maker is also facing liquidation, involving 60,810 ETH ($109 million). Since the price of Ethereum oracle on Maker has not been updated, the giant whale finally reduced its position by 2,882 ETH before the price of Maker oracle at 10 o'clock and replaced it with 5.21 million DAIs to repay, slightly lowering the liquidation price to US$1,781. In addition, it is suspected that the Ethereum Foundation's wallet was deposited 30,098 ETH (worth $56.08 million) into Maker 6 hours ago to reduce the liquidation price. Currently, the wallet holds 100,394 ETH (worth $182 million) in Maker, with a liquidation price of $1,127.06.

According to Coinglass data, the total amount of liquidated in the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours reached US$937 million, of which US$742 million were liquidated in long positions and US$194 million were liquidated in short positions, and a total of 331,076 people were liquidated in total. The largest single liquidation occurred in the BTCUSD trading pair on Bybit Exchange, worth $5.2611 million.

Since hitting a record high on December 16, 2024, the crypto market has evaporated its market value of US$1.3 trillion, a drop of 33%, equivalent to an average daily loss of US$15.5 billion for 84 consecutive days. This marks the largest three-month market cap pullback in crypto history, with crypto totals currently falling to its lowest level since November 6, 2024.

Is the bull market really over? When will this round of decline last? In the market where panic continues to spread, are there still opportunities to buy on dips? How do institutions and traders view the future market? Let's take a look at the end.

Institutional and trader perspectives

Arthur Hayes: Don 't rush to buy the bottom, Bitcoin may bottom around $70,000

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posted a statement saying that the plan is as follows: Be patient and don’t be anxious. Bitcoin could bottom around $70,000, pulling back 36% from an all-time high of $110,000, which is very normal in a bull market. Then, we need the US stock market to plummet in a free fall, and then the big players in traditional finance went bankrupt. Then, the Federal Reserve and central banks of various countries began to let the market go, and then it was time to all in. Traders will try to buy at the bottom. If you are a risk-averse player, you can wait until major central banks start to release money before increasing their positions. You may not be able to accurately buy to the bottom, but you don’t have to suffer from the long consolidation period and potential floating losses.

It also pointed out that BTC transactions are conducted 24X7 all day, and anyone with the Internet around the world can trade them. It cannot be issued unlimitedly, and the result of failure is bankruptcy or liquidation. No country's finances are directly bound to the rise in BTC prices. Stock trading time is 8X5, only specific people can trade, they cannot be issued infinitely, but if you have political relations, you may be bailed after failure. US marginal tax revenue is directly linked to the stock market. Therefore, the stock market will eventually be bailed, just to see if your portfolio will survive when the bailout occurs. BTC is a true free market, and stocks are not. Therefore, in the fiat liquidity crisis, BTC will lead the stock market to take the lead in taking action when it falls and rebounds.

Cathie Wood: The current market is digesting the final stage of a rolling recession

Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, said that the current market is digesting the final stage of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump administration and the Fed more room for policy adjustments than investors expect, which may push the U.S. economy into a "deflationary boom" in the second half of this year. Cathie Wood believes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be more flexible, and the market may underestimate this potential economic rebound momentum.

A rolling recession refers to an economic phenomenon in which different industries and sectors take turns experiencing recessions while the overall economy and job market remain relatively stable.

YouHodler: Bitcoin 's current consolidation period may evolve into a medium-term bear market

Ruslan Lienkha, market leader at YouHodler, pointed out that the consolidation phase of Bitcoin lasted for several months (even half a year) before it ushered in the next wave of gains. However, he believes that the current market environment is more complex. Pessimism in the U.S. stock market prevails, and concerns about a possible recession in the U.S. are also growing. Given these factors, the current consolidation period may evolve into a medium-term bear market.

But Lienkha pointed out that although Bitcoin may evolve into a safe-haven asset in the future, investors currently regard it as a high-risk asset, which often responds more sharply to changes in market sentiment than traditional financial markets.

Yuga Vice President: If this is the beginning of a bear market, ETH may fall to $200-400

Yuga Labs Vice President of Blockchain Business said that seeing someone predicted the bottom of ETH at around $1,500, it seems reasonable given the market we are experiencing, but you need to ask yourself an important question

• are we at the beginning or end of a bear market?

If this is the end of a bear market, that's great. BTC has hardly been hit hard by much price, and its price is still stable at a level that was still at an all-time high just a few months ago, which is very bullish for BTC.

However, if this is the beginning of a bear market, then be prepared to see the price of ETH well below $1,500. It is ridiculous to think that the long-term final bottom of an asset that has fallen 30% this week and has fallen more than 50% in the past 3 months is only 20% away from here. If the bear market has just begun, the target price of ETH may be $200-400, which means another 80% drop on the current price basis, a total of 90%, which is consistent with the past bear market.

0xQuit finally stated: "I personally tend to be bullish at this position, but my position layout can also accept the market's continued decline. If you can't accept the worst expectations, please consider selling some."

Bravos Research: Crypto Market is Experienced in the Largest Altcoin Clearing since LUNA Crash

According to Bravos Research analysis, the current cryptocurrency market is experiencing the largest altcoin liquidation since the LUNA crash in May 2022. The market has liquidated about $10 billion, far exceeding the situation after the FTX crash. Data shows that Bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise, indicating that there is no obvious seasonal signal for altcoin in the short term.

Anthony Pompliano (Pomp): Trump deliberately collapses the market to force the Fed to cut interest rates

Crypto analyst Anthony Pompliano (Pomp) put forward a bold theory: The Trump administration may be trying to create chaos in the stock market with the goal of forcing the Fed to cut interest rates to avoid the U.S. refinancing about $7 trillion in debt. Pomp noted that the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped from 4.8% in January to 4.21% at present, indicating that the strategy is moving in the right direction.

Trump once said on Fox News that no one can make a fortune when there are high interest rates because people can't borrow money. The market expects the Fed to maintain its current interest rates in March, but the likelihood of a rate cut in May is close to 50%.

Eugene: 113 USD long SOL small limit order has been triggered

Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on her personal channel that the small SOL limit order was triggered at $113 – let's see if this marks some form of short-term bottom.