Communication Pricing Model: Chain of Suspicion and Real-World Attention (RWA)

Author: Crypto V

Please imagine you and your accomplices standing within the explosion range of a nuclear bomb. At the moment of the explosion, some people were destroyed, some limbs flew everywhere, some were burned into human-shaped coke, some were severely burned, and some were blind and burned in the skin.

Sounds scary?
Then try to replace the nuclear bomb with a new currency's launch and propagation path:

Some people stuffed it in the inner plate, and it instantly took ten thousand times; some people 10x; some people doubled the book; some people hung on the top of the mountain and became the victim in the next story.

How many people have you seen urging Kanye to issue coins while scolding $Libra and $TRUMP? Why do they still have to chase after them even though they know they might be cut?

It’s not that they are stupid, nor that they simply love losing money, but that they are due to the laws of communication. This set of rules not only applies to Crypto, but also to all information arbitrage games in the real world. Let's sneak in

Positive suspicion chain - How to create a FOMO

I'm not sure how many of my readers have primary school or doctoral degree or above, but I'll assume that everyone has read "The Three-Body Problem". In the world view of "The Three-Body Problem", there is an important basic theorem -the chain of suspicion:

"I don't know if you have good intentions; I don't know if you think you are kind-hearted; I can't assume whether you think I am kind-hearted."
In this "dark forest" situation, civilizations cannot communicate to confirm the other party's intentions, nor can they choose to remain silent and let the other party sit magnanimous. Therefore, the only optimal solution is to take the initiative and directly destroy the other party.

It is a prisoner's dilemma of the ultimate PVP, and all actions inevitably go to the end of "guaranteed destruction".

The scene constructed by Liu Cixin is a confrontation between cosmic civilizations, and in the Crypto trading market, we can reverse engineer a similar "Dark Forest Zero Sum Dead": FOMO (Fear of Missing Out, that is, "fear of Missing Out")

The "positive suspicion chain" of FOMO transactions

In the market FOMO state, the market forms an inevitable buying force, and we can disassemble three logics similar to "suspicious chain":

1. Eliminate the possibility of communication <br style="font-size: inherit; font-family: PingFang SC,Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Hiragino Sans GB,Heiti SC,Microsoft YaHei,WenQuanYi Micro Hei,sans-serif;">The market trends change very quickly, and before decisions must be made, there is almost no time for sufficient communication and rational analysis between individuals. In other words, the market does not allow "civilized" to sit down and have a good talk.

2. Create a "zero-sum expectation" that is agreed upon by as many people as possible
The "angle" here refers to the investment logic of the event. For example, the profit of the buyer first is bound to be the cost of the buyer later on. All market rational participants are aware of this. When everyone knows that "those who buy later will definitely lose", the market will form a consensus that "must buy first".

3. Manufacturing unbearable opportunity costs
FOMO is effective because the cost of missing out on time is too high. Seeing others getting rich because of this incident and missing out on him due to hesitation will lead to great psychological torture and even devastating physical and mental harm. Ultimately, most people in the market will be forced to buy, or even make a desperate bet.

These three factors work together to form a "positive suspicion chain" in the FOMO state. Its "positiveness" is that it prompts market participants to "buy" the behavior that is in line with the design purpose, and it is inevitable

Case: Market sentiment on the day of $TRUMP launch

Taking the day of the $TRUMP token issuance as an example, how this "positive suspicion chain" drives the market:

As soon as the news of Trump's issuance of coins came out, the market immediately pulled the market and its market value soared. Although some people doubt the authenticity of the news, the market's reaction was so fast that it was too late to verify it.

After simple verification and confirmation that it was not a stolen account, the market concluded that "external funds will definitely buy", which is an irreversible trading logic (angle).

The Earth's chief personally issues coins. Events of this level are extremely scarce, and missing is a historic loss. The market consensus is: "If you miss the opportunity, you will not only lose money, but you will even be ridiculed by group members for the rest of your life."
Therefore, the vast majority of people in the market have no choice but to buy, or even stud.

Determinant of FOMO transaction strength So, how strong the FOMO effect of an event is mainly determined by the following three factors:

The faster the trend is, the less time the market responds, the closer the individual's communication and analysis is to the instinctive reaction.

Can the consensus scope of FOMO trading logic (angle) be recognized by most people in the market? The larger the consensus scope, the stronger the FOMO effect.

The scarcity and irreplicative events themselves are the more unique and difficult to reproduce, the market has a stronger perception of their "missing is lifelong regret", thus promoting stronger FOMO purchasing behavior.

The financial strength of the crowd is a variable that most people don’t consider—if the main communication group of FOMO does not have enough funds, the price will soon collapse.

Propagation Pricing Model - Make FOMO Measurable

Greatness can't be planned, but FOMO can.

In the Crypto market, FOMO is a market sentiment that can be engineered, shaped, and even quantified. Although “great” cannot be planned, there are traces to the creation of FOMO.

If you want to create a FOMO, among the three major elements mentioned above, the easiest thing to control is the first point (trend speed). Because the early pull-up and market momentum are within the controllable project. The second point (market consensus from a narrative perspective) involves how to find the "high pricing" angle recognized by the market and take advantage of the market's cognitive lag (that is, information spillover leads to lower pricing).

As for the third point (the scarcity and inreproducibility of events), this is the most difficult to manipulate. Anything that can be planned is no longer scarce in nature and is easily copied. But there are still opportunities in the market - if market participants can take advantage of the differences in perception of scarcity, FOMO can be created through the "pricing spread".

Case: FOMO Evolution of Crypto AI Narrative (November 2024-February 2025)

A typical example is the rapid rise and demise of Crypto AI narrative. This cycle roughly goes through the following stages:

Create information gaps, making it impossible for traders to communicate: VC institutions and behind-the-scenes groups use Meme coins as carriers to quickly push up market popularity and form a fast-tracking market, so that traders can only passively follow without enough time to communicate and discuss rationally. If the form of memecoin is not a form of quick deposit and quick feedback, but a form of mining machine dividend deposit, it is impossible to fomoize this narrative

Leveraging cognitive hierarchy differences, the target audience for building a “zero-sum angle” narrative extends from professionals in the AI ​​field to general cognitive AI is the future Crypto investors, further covering does not really understand AI, but knows it is the trend of the average trader.

Since the cognitive threshold for AI topics outside the Crypto circle is high, many people in the market can only invest in FOMO based on the instinct of "industry bigwigs are promoting the AI ​​track".

High replication leads to narrative cooling. AI is extremely replicable as a technology and does not have long-term scarcity.

This also explains why AI narrative lasted for only about 3 months, and then as traditional AI projects such as Deepseek emerged, the market's cognitive gap was flattened, a large number of similar AI transaction agents appeared, and narrative FOMO disappeared.

Communication pricing mathematical model Based on this, we can abstract a narrative communication pricing mathematical model, the core is the communication pricing P(d) of the narrative and the change with the transmission distance d to simulate a narrative/event/project in the process of spreading from the initiator to the outside, from no one to the crowd, from rushing to no one to buy it. Since I graduated from a junior college, thanks to ChatGPT. If you are as illiterate as me, please jump directly to the summary section too long and don’t read:

in:
P0: Initial pricing of event propagation origin (usually the highest)
e−βd: trust decay factor, controlling FOMO intensity (speed of market trust decline)
Sγ: Scarcity of events (the more scarce, the slower the pricing declines)
e−Rd: The replicability of events (the easier it is to replicate, the faster the pricing drops)
A(d): How attractive the event is to different groups
V(d): Crowd value, measuring the financial strength available to different audiences during the pricing process

Core variable explanation
1. Trust decay factor e−βd
The further the transmission distance d, the market's trust in events decreases, and the weaker FOMO is affected by cognitive cost C(d): the higher the cognitive cost, the more difficult the market will understand events, resulting in a faster decline in trust (β becomes larger)
Lower cognitive costs, more likely events to spread, and FOMO lasts longer (beta becomes smaller)
2. Scarcity factor Sγ
The scarcity of events, the market is willing to maintain higher pricing, and the FOMO declines slower. If events are highly scarce (such as $TRUMP issuance), narrative pricing can remain high for a certain period of time. If events are not scarce (such as AI narrative), the market will soon cool down due to increased supply.
3. Replicability factor e−Rd
If events are easily replicated, the market's popularity with them will drop rapidly. High replicable events (such as AI tokens): FOMO has only one low replicable event (such as Musk issued coins): narrative pricing drops more slowly.
4. Audience Attraction A(d)
Different groups have different attraction to events, which determines the influence of FOMO's spread range: the degree of match between events and audiences (λ)
The audience's cultural background, market experience, and trading habits, the larger the λ, the lower the match, and the worse the attractiveness, you can use Gaussian distribution to model:

If events cannot attract a wider audience, FOMO communication will end soon
5. Crowd value A(d)
V(d) represents the trading capital strength of the people spreading to distance d in the market.
The financial strength of different groups determines the driving force of FOMO trading: the early entry is usually high-funded traders (institutions, whales), and after the influence on prices has increased to the periphery, it is mainly retail investors, and its influence has weakened.

Assume that expression is a power law distribution:

in:
V0​ is the initial financial strength of the event transmission origin (such as VC, whale)
δ is the attenuation factor of capital distribution, which controls the flow direction of market funds:
- δ small (stationary capital flow): the financial strength of the peripheral population is still strong
-δ Large (funds rapidly decay): The peripheral population is mainly small and scattered, and FOMO is difficult to sustain

Impact of population value:
If V(d) drops too quickly, that is, the peripheral population is small capital, then even if the FOMO is spread, the trading influence will not be strong, resulting in insufficient price support.
If V(d) declines slowly, that is, there is still strong capital support on the periphery, the FOMO trade will last longer.
The propagation pricing model is too long and I don’t read the summary. Although this formula may not be accurate, it reveals an eternal market law:
In any event, the farther the distance of communication, the higher the cost of audience understanding; the farther the distance of communication, the lower the price the audience is willing to accept.
For events that are scarce, unreplicable, and targeted at specific audiences, narrative pricing declines slowly, while events that are easy to copy and complex information depreciate quickly during the dissemination process.
For the sickle, the red shaded part is the best "harvest area".
The cognitive cost curve and the narrative pricing line intersect, which means narrative death

Real World Attention - Maximize the common divisor of spread pricing We pay for information every moment:
Supermarket discounts, Black Friday discounts
FOMO Some of the money is the price of getting on the bus, the political movement of real estate speculation, and even the war is money, while others are life.
This is not a problem with "Degen vs. Normie" or "Ponzi vs. Halal", but the underlying logic of the human attention economy.

So, how to build a communication model with high narrative pricing? What is the greatest common divisor?
This leads to my own concept - Real World Attention (RWA).
RWA definition:
The most valuable narrative must be outside the core high-frequency users of the currency circle, and can attract attention events that meet the global average IQ and have the potential for "viral transmission".
It ensures the widest audience and reaches people with high transaction value.

If you don't believe it, you can try to answer the following questions without looking at the answer

1. Why do "President's Coin" and "Celebrity Coin" always have a market, regardless of whether the market is good or bad?
These events face a globally predictable cognitive group, and the lapse of the clear card angle is unacceptable, thus forming a positive suspicion chain.
The President issues coins: Especially the president of a big country, the widest population of people are covered, so no matter how many people are cut, there will definitely be someone to rush.

2. Why are many non-American artists sending coins in disguise? <br style="font-size: inherit; font-family: PingFang SC, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, Hiragino Sans GB, Heiti SC, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, sans-serif;">Audience problem: The audience of North American artists is often active on currency platforms (such as Twitter), and their information can be directly or indirectly transmitted to the currency circle; rather, the audience value of non-American artists is relatively low.
The people who come from the origin of the communication are naturally low due to their high cognitive cost.

3. Why do event-type Tokens perform better than celebrity coins when there are also celebrities participating? (for example, $MAGA, $PNUT, $Jailstool, $Vine, etc.)

There are three reasons:
Drama tension: The event itself is more attractive, and can attract all the people who are eating melons across the currency circle and improve the matching between the event and different groups of people.

Communication audience vs. Fan group: Communication audience is a dynamic process, a group that is activated and responds to events; while celebrity fans are a static, fixed value.
Celebrity’s issuance of coins can only activate a small portion of the fixed population, while an event can activate a wider group and expand the distance of transmission.

Scarcity: Events come with scarcity attributes. For example, although Liu Xiaoqing and Mao Amin are homogeneous, Mao Amin evades taxes, while Liu Xiaoqing found a boyfriend who is 30 years younger than him in his 60s. This kind of incident is both rare and eye-catching.
4. Why are it difficult to make a circle with many complex AI, DeFi narratives and complex capital trading models?
Cognitive cost is too high (beta is too large).
In the secondary market, the common cognition range is too small and the pricing is low, making it difficult to form a positive suspicion chain, and even effective dissemination is difficult to start. How can there be FOMO?
5. Why does the FOMO trigger when the large plate Dev sends new coins and the big cart head on the car?
For memecoin audiences, this is a natural positive suspicion chain zero-sum scenario.
If you don’t get in, you will never get in the car.
Data and monitoring tools convey information in real time, without additional cognitive costs for memecoin audiences.
The only problem is that after it is spread to the outer circle, the outer circle audience may determine that they are on the periphery and choose not to enter.
6. Why is pure Halal and technical narrative VC currency level 2 so dismal?
Same as 4.

In a sense, the RWA of Real World Attention is more valuable than the Real World Asset, because it is much easier to form a consensus based on attention than to form a consensus on assets.

An American is very likely to recognize the asset value of a bungalow in the countryside of Shakaofu, Thailand; but if the tiktok video of a local teenager becomes a meme, Americans may also resonate with each other

Inspiration to the market and the market

The era when a narrative, pattern, and system can explode is over. Projects that cannot be disseminated and recognized by market pricing cannot wait for the possibility of "popularity" and "becoming the circle".

If it cannot be recognized by communication and market pricing, any project will not be able to wait for the opportunity to "popular" or "extravagize the circle".

Even if the ground promotion team has experienced many battles, it is difficult to succeed if it has "no angle".
On the contrary, if an ordinary project can trigger the real world attention, it may be inexplicably popular.
Starting from the market, you need to plan the communication like this:
Delineate: If the main system of the project is difficult to meet the communication model, a part of it needs to be drawn up to ensure that it does not affect the main system.
Customized system: Use meme or NFT, which can rise rapidly and do not give time to communicate as a carrier;
Or use incremental pricing mutual aid packages (such as VDS, Taishan crowdfunding, Fomo3D).
Select an angle: According to RWA logic, select narratives with low information complexity and wide coverage of the audience.
Make events: Create events with dramatic tension, use this as a carrier to spread, and design the deposit into a real-world attention event (such as "an 80-year-old woman unexpectedly wins tens of millions" or "TST dev address Jia Chizi joins hands to join forces to serve in the banker, Pangu community dominates BSC").

Let's use @ethsign as an example:

The narrative of EthSign itself is a very difficult type to pyramid scheme: to B/to G application:
- Token Table Token Distribution Platform
- Docusign's currency circle replacement version
- Digital identity stands from the perspective of retail investors, especially young retail investors, and the entire project is full of two words: Boring
@realyanxin A clever thing is to directly split a "orange dynasty" (sounds like Northeast bathing) to C-end theme from the design.

In order to create a positive suspicion chain for communication, Sign chose to burst an NFT and pre-airdrop activity as carriers. Airdrop also chose an absolute black box mechanism that cannot be farmed to minimize communication possibilities.

Through the 16 million financing announcement + Binance Labs investment + a large number of KOLs with orange glasses and add elements to viral transmission + community cult activities, the information conveyed by the entire project to C is collapsed into a meme, maximize the visible audience matching in the currency circle, reduce cognitive costs, and cover the people who are mainly KOLs in the currency circle, and are also relatively high transaction value.

This is already the optimal solution that this type of non-to C project can choose. Even after so many designs, Sign still needs to spend a lot of manpower to do high-intensity community activities and education, manually improve population matching, reduce the cognitive cost of peripheral populations, and maximize the communication distance as much as possible. Fortunately, the Sign team has a bunch of event marketing talents, and they can really gain attention during execution.

And if you are a traditional CX project

The core of your incident transmission is the community leader. The KOL project coverage in the currency circle may require an excellent agency to complete the call in two days

No matter how familiar the relationship is, the CX community president basically needs to meet and have a meal offline before he can start to spread and make a big deposit. Even the inner circle has a very high cognitive cost (β is very large). When the community leader spreads to his own system again, this process has to be done again.

In the present, the cost of spreading this method to the outer circle will be higher. This means that more educational resources need to be invested, which means that the cost of project transmission from the origin has reached a higher level, forming a vicious cycle of communication

So what you need to do is:

Reduce the complexity of the pattern and narrative and control it within the range that can be explained by 3 sentences: What is it? How to play it? How to control the wind

Design a zero-sum scenario without explanation to establish a FOMO. This scenario is mainly used for communication, it can be an independent complete product or a larger plate design deposit.

Design the deposit into a real-world attention event. For example, "The 80-year-old lady was pulled by her grandson and played with her plate. She unexpectedly won a million yuan in prize money. Her grandson was greedy and went to court with her grandmother." "The TST dev address also came to Jiachizi to serve as a banker, and Pangu community dominated BSC"

If you are pure meme dev or meme infrastructure

The meme here refers to any type of low-liquidity asset that has no permission to launch on the chain, no mechanism partiality in chip distribution, no price discovery, no artificial intervention.

Dev or infrastructure refers to the initiator related to the launch of this category of assets.
According to the propagation pricing model and the positive suspicion chain, there are only three resources that are truly useful:

Active market makers on the chain: know how to control the rhythm, and high-control funds and speed through the market.

Internet promoters: Connor Gaydos of Enron Coin, Abbey Desmond of converting Gatwick Airport to Luton Airport, or China's "Guo Meimei" and "Feng Jie" incident planner Li Er Chi Si - these people can really stir up the attention of the real world.

Precision trading KOLs and large-scale public media/KOLs: They can activate a wide range of market consensus.

The traditional "fundamental narrative" in other currency circles is basically not important - communication is not done by them, it is just sold to exchanges, market makers and industry big Vs as a story

Written at the end

I have realized that any model I send out will become a visual learning, leading to an increase in the threshold for competition in the circle. But I was really fed up with Daqun slapping his head and coming up with a narrative to come up with me to give him some advice (promote). Another purpose of this article is to hope that all projects can read and understand them carefully. Before asking me for a call, if you are not the project party but are working hard to make a personal IP KOL wannabe, stick to it, and keep causing trouble and stir up your attention. This is actually the main point I recognized @EnHeng456 and @Elizabethofyou at that time: they are really good at making trouble to attract attention. This is a very rare ability. Practice more, you can also make your own "Enron"
Kings, princes, generals and ministers, wouldn’t they have a seed!