Ten Questions Arthur Hayes: When will the copycat season arrive? Which one is stronger in the future market, ETH or SOL?

Original title: "Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin's route to $200,000, holding gold and why 'hated' Ethereum is due for a comeback"

Source:Fortune

Compiled by: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

Arthur Hayes, an early icon of Bitcoin, co-founded offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 and later faced legal problems for violating U.S. regulatory rules. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish sufficient anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation and paid fines, but received a full pardon from Trump at the beginning of the year.

Currently, Hayes focuses on managing family fund Maelstrom, while still being an influential figure in the crypto assets space. Fortune's special author Anna Tutova interviewed him during Token-2049 in Dubai, and Hayes shared his views on the current market—including forecasting that BTC may reach $200,000 in the near term and is expected to exceed $1 million in 2028.

In the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and altcoin markets and explained why he chose to allocate 20% of gold assets.

The following are all interviews, and the content has been streamlined and edited.

Q1: The true deficit about the United States

Anna: You call the recent lending operations of the US Treasury "a trick"? Why?

Arthur Hayes: The Treasury Department has been consuming its Treasury General Account (TGA) and using "special measures" (underfunded government projects) to circumvent borrowing limits, causing TGA to drop from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter, meaning that $300 billion of spending was not achieved through new debt, and the actual borrowing scale far exceeds official data.

This is confusing. Because we are in the debt ceiling period, the US government cannot theoretically increase its borrowing net, but they maintain spending through various accounting methods without breaking the ceiling. From January to March 2025, the Ministry of Finance’s borrowing scale was 22% higher than the same period last year, and the deficit was actually expanding.

Q2: About market liquidity

Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?

Arthur Hayes: I think the actual borrowing demand for the U.S. government is much larger than what is publicly shown, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debts and need to provide maximum leverage for those debts through the banking system. The end result is a further global dollar liquidity flooding as the U.S. government is increasing spending.

In short, this is the essence of the repurchase operation and why I think it will increase market liquidity. Based on this, I judge that Bitcoin has bottomed out on April 9, and the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise sharply as the government continues to borrow and Bessent ensures low-cost financing.

Q3: About the Copyright Season

Anna: So where does Bitcoin need to rise to before it can start the altcoin market? What are the key factors that promote the launch of the copycat season?

Arthur Hayes: I think Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise to the $150,000-200,000 range. I expect this situation to occur in the summer or early in the third quarter, after which funds will start rotating various altcoins.

Q4: About bull market growth expectations

Anna: Do you think the next altcoin market will see a crazy super-cycle surge like in 2021? Or will it only rebound slightly?

Arthur Hayes: It is unlikely to reappear the 2021 grand event where all coins soared 100 times. There will be new narrative hot spots in the market, and some coins may rise wildly, but there is a reason why the long-term stagflation "dinosaur coins" in your holdings do not rise. Many projects have inflated valuations, low circulation, and lack of real users and revenue. They rely solely on exchange currency speculation. Now the price has dropped by 95%. I don’t think they will perform well in the next cycle.

Q5 : Regarding personal income expectations

Anna: What is your expected rate of return in this round of market? What are the usual target prices and returns?

Arthur Hayes: At least it must outperform Bitcoin’s gains. If we decide to allocate funds, the underlying asset must be able to exceed Bitcoin’s rate of return.

Q6 : About Trump

Anna: What are your expectations for Trump’s crypto policy?

Arthur Hayes: His team should launch policies that are good for crypto, but this does not mean that the specific projects you hold will appreciate, nor does it mean that the policies will proceed according to the schedule you expect.

The current market expectations are too high, and some people even believe that crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But don 't forget that Trump is a politician. He has too many higher priority matters to deal with, and everyone needs to be patient.

Q7 : About Gold

Anna: Against the backdrop of increased market uncertainty, we have seen a sharp rise in gold. Have you allocated gold assets or are you focusing entirely on cryptocurrencies?

Arthur Hayes: I have long held gold, have physical gold bars in the vault, and also hold a large number of gold mining stocks - considering the surge in gold prices, these targets are still undervalued. I think gold still has a lot of room for growth because central banks are continuing to increase their holdings.

More importantly, I expect the United States to significantly revalue its gold reserves and achieve debt dilution through the depreciation of the US dollar against gold. By the end of this round, gold prices could reach $10,000 to $20,000.

Gold accounts for about 20% of my personal investment portfolio.

Q8 : About ETH vs SOL

Anna: This ratio is quite high! There are many debates about ETH and SOL in the market now, which one do you prefer?

Arthur Hayes: I think ETH has more upward potential, and although it is now questioned - everyone feels that it is ineffective and the development team makes mistakes repeatedly, the reality is that it still maintains the highest on-chain lockout (TVL), has the largest developer community, and is the safest PoS blockchain. That's right, although its price performance has really been unsatisfactory since 2020.

SOL obviously performed well, but if I want to use fiat currency for a new round of configuration now, I think ETH may surpass SOL in the next 18-24 months of bull market.

Q9 : About $1 million in BTC

Anna: You previously predicted that Bitcoin will reach $1 million. When will this goal be achieved?

Arthur Hayes: I think Bitcoin will reach $1 million before the end of Trump’s presidency, that is, by the end of 2028.

Q10 : Regarding annual trend expectations

Anna: How do you expect the specific trend of the crypto market this year?

Arthur Hayes:: Bitcoin’s dominance will continue to rise, possibly approaching $200,000 in this wave of gains. Then the altcoin season arrives and we will see some interesting phenomena. By the end of the year, the target price of Bitcoin was about $250,000.