Summary of investment experience in 2024: How to properly allocate and outperform the market?

Author: NingNing

To sum up my 24 years of personal investment experience, it is to copy Dalio’s all-weather investment rules to diversify the investment portfolio into every cycle that affects the crypto market (intra-year seasonal cycle, 4-year bull-bear cycle, Geithner technology innovation cycle, Merrill Lynch clock cycle), and follow Taleb's barbell strategy, focusing on allocating Alpha assets on the Bata track and Beta assets on the Alpha track.

Therefore, the Alpha assets in my investment portfolio are now mainly chain abstraction, AI Agent, and PayFi projects. The addition of these assets helped my portfolio's overall return easily outperform the market in December. When rebalancing the investment portfolio at the end of the year to capture the 25-year Q1 Alpha gains, I suddenly realized that my Alpha asset allocation logic was relatively simple, purely centered around the main logic of "disruptive innovation" in technology.

Especially after recently hearing some remarks about community vibe by MegaETH Lianchuang Cake Brother on Space, I lay in bed in the dead of night and reflected.

In the field of crypto investment, there are actually two investment logics, one is the so-called technological determinism, and the other is that community is king.

Generally speaking, as a non-hypothetical rational person, I generally regard things like community vibe and cult culture as noises made by big liars and little fools for common interests, and I don't like to pay attention to them.

But recently, I bought Fat Penguin NFT because I am optimistic about the consumer chain Abstract, which is on the chain abstract track. This allowed me to experience the community Vibe as a stakeholder rather than a bystander for the first time. This experience made me feel a long-lost sense of social belonging and community acceptance. Inspired by Brother Pan’s views, I began to intentionally break through my original cognitive cocoon and try to understand projects with a strong community vibe, such as Monad, Sonic SVM, and MegaETH. , BeraChain et al.

Sonic SVM is the first instance of Sonic's Solana L2 Stack architecture HyperGrid. It is positioned as the Web3 TikTok Chain and its target users are TikTok's millions of Z-era game consumers.

Previously, I wrote a long-term investment research post for Sonic (see retweet). While writing, the punter's "split stock" theory kept popping up in my mind. Frankly speaking, I did not realize the real value of these narratives of consumer chain/community Vibe at the time. From a technical point of view, although Sonic's HyperGrid makes sense, it is far inferior to Preconf, Based Rollup, Parallel EVM, etc. The new L2 technology primitives are sexy.

But half a year later, if we compare the operational status and community maturity of Sonic SVM with those of L2 with sexy technical primitives, we will find that there is a big difference in products and results between consumer-oriented construction and abstract Web3 Mass adoption. The difference that divides.

The current Sonic SVM is building a TikTok App Layer - SonicX, which will airdrop its native token $SONIC to all users who have registered through TikTok. Relying on Account Abstraction, TikTok users can directly experience on-chain interactions within the application without configuring a separate Web3 wallet, and complete airdrop collection on the TikTok side.

Through TikTok's advanced advertising and creator cooperation, SonicX has attracted more than 2 million users to participate in games, challenges and live broadcasts within the app, creating a seamless experience similar to Web2. In addition, Sonic SVM plans to access more games on http://SonicX.app and gradually build the "TikTok Chain" ecosystem. Qualified users can receive token rewards during the airdrop period.

TikTok has 1.5 billion+ global users, and Telegram has 900 million global users, but TikTok's user lifetime value is much higher than Telegram's. The crazy hype of ChillGuy some time ago is showing us the monetization potential of TikTok users. We don’t seem to have to worry about chaos like the Telegram applet before, which ended up just exchanging precious crypto market liquidity for a lot of low-value junk users.

When I was working at a small crypto fund in 2023, a senior told me that one of the main lines in value investing is “go to big market”. After completing 0-1 innovation, who can better occupy a larger market through rapid replication + strengthening the growth flywheel will be the final winner. Now, when vitalik feels that blockchain infra has been oversupplied, who can reach consumers faster, who can occupy more consumers' minds, and who will be the Web3 Infra of the next era.