Reflecting on the cyclical changes in this round of crypto bull market, how to formulate an effective selling strategy?

Author: Finish , Encryption KOL

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

This cycle is very difficult and worse than any previous round. Many even call it the “crime cycle” because the number of Rugs and projects that cheat money have been growing.

The purpose of this article is to reflect on the past and try to predict what will happen next.

Pump.Fun is born

On January 19, 2024, Pump.fun was born, and the well-known meme token was changed from then on. No matter age, occupation or nationality, everyone has the opportunity to issue tokens.

The hype wasn't very hot at the time, but finally in March last year, with the emergence of tokens such as MICHI and FWOG, Pump.fun began to rise. Almost anyone can release memes in seconds, a phenomenon that changes the entire crypto space.

With many tokens bundled, Pump.fun is a fair release opportunity and no insiders dump it. Although it looks good, it also charges a lot of fees.

Since its launch, Pump.fun has made more than 2.86 million SOL, or approximately US$577 million. It is probably one of the most successful startups ever.

This liquidity has been permanently extracted and taken into account by Pump.fun developers, which is one of the important reasons that make this cycle unique.

Bitcoin halving

Next is one of the most critical moments in the current cycle. On April 20 last year, the reward for mining BTC blocks was reduced from 6.25 to 3.125. With the first ETF approved on January 10, many people think the halving is a "sell news" event, but instead a new ATH emerges.

ETF + Bitcoin halving is the most bullish setting as many people have been waiting for institutional liquidity to start pouring in, and that's exactly what happened next. Fidelity, BlackRock and MicroStrategy are buying every day, injecting more and more liquidity into it.

This gives traders hope. Many traders think that this cycle will be similar to the previous cycle, but this time, everything is different. The direction of the market always seems to run contrary to the "Volkswagen".

What you expect is your problem

Looking back at the cycles in 2017 and 2021, these two cycles are actually very similar. Making money is not difficult and does not require any special knowledge. At that time, there were 10-20 altcoins that everyone knew and were hoarding.

First, BTC rises, and then ETH is followed as the beta gameplay in the cycle, usually with a higher ROI. Then transition from ETH to altcoins, from high-cap currency to low-cap currency.

That's why many people decided to skip the BTC phase in 2024 and go straight to ETH or altcoins. If ETH can rise by 5 times, and large altcoins can rise by 10 times, why wait for 2-3 times of BTC to return?

The logic is simple, but "Volkswagen" did not consider that this cycle might be different. The number of projects, tokens, and memes is a hundred times that of the past. People buy familiar tokens such as DOT, ATOM, and ADA and expect 10 times the return.

It turns out that when liquidity turns to altcoins, all old altcoins are left behind due to the overload of altcoins, especially new altcoins.

Compared with 2021 , the fraud situation is different

Encryption KOL OverDose mentioned a reasonable point. In 2021, for the sake of "Rug", the scammers are very creative, and users can stop as long as they are not too greedy.

• Do Kwon's Terra $LUNA
• Sam Fried's FTX
• 3AC had long-term investments before the crash
• Alameda drives different narratives and manipulates the market

Scam is difficult and requires a certain IQ, but now it is just using big names, celebrities, and even presidents to promote their junk projects.”

Players have become accustomed to gambling and start to feel FOMO about TRUMP and MELANIA and want to make money on CAR or LIBRA, but end up losing a lot.

Personally, 10-15 excellent traders have invested heavily in LIBRA ($1 million) while insiders dumped them more than $100 million.

It 's time to change

It's time to understand that the cycle will never be the same, and altcoins are not just "beta games" for BTC or ETH, it's a completely different niche with more risks and opportunities.

You can't continue to expect DOT or ATOM to rise just because BTC broke through the all-time high in 2021 and drove altcoins.

There is no doubt that individuals are still optimistic about BTC and believe that it will continue to be one of the best compound assets in the next 10-20 years, but the returns will be similar to stocks and will no longer easily achieve 200% annual growth rate.

The main things you need to learn from this cycle:

• Simple holding is a cowardly act and you will face losses if you don’t sell at the right time. Murad has been calling for hold, and nearly all of his memes have fallen 80-90% since ATH.
• You need to develop a strategy for when to sell. This may sound harsh, but that's what the market is, and a specific strategy for exiting is required before trading.
• Narrative rotation. I've recently experienced crazy rotations from meme to AI proxy to TRUMP and more. If you fall behind at any time, most of the gains may be erased. Always follow the narrative and remember that liquidity is limited.
• It's better to arrive in time than earlier. Don't think too much and rotate when the time is right.
• No matter how much you believe in the protocol, you must ensure stable profits and continue to accumulate Bitcoin, which is still better than most stocks or real estate opportunities.

Hopefully, this cycle is not over yet, and the current BTC integration will determine what will happen in the next 2-3 months.

Related reading: The dark forest of MEME coins: The industrialized harvesting assembly line earns one million a day, and retail investors are unable to make money under one-tenth of the retention rate