The AI ​​Agent "The Last Hope of the Copyright" continues to collapse. Should it be held or cut its losses?

Looking at the piles of AI Agent projects (19B->6B), which almost fell to the bottom, there was a sense of pressure from collective death. In addition to heartache, many people were confused. What's wrong with the AI ​​Agent sector? After reflecting and reviewing, let’s talk about some opinions:

1. The formation of corpses is common in the early stages of the new trend, because the speed at which the perpetrators issue new assets is much higher than the speed at which innovative projects are implemented and implemented. Most people are forced to "PVP" in a bunch of unverified concepts. Although our investment research bloggers try their best to explore value projects with a PVE mentality, they are essentially unable to escape. The AI ​​Agent narrative revolution is still A masquerade party with AI MEME.

However, retail investors' Fomo or negative emotions cannot determine the end. Once the AI ​​Agent runs into a new Lego paradigm of sustainability, the choice of main funds can prove whether the AI ​​Agent can become a trend.

2. With the historical integration direction of AI + Crypto, the AI ​​Agent cannot be falsified. In the short term, many people will criticize the concept of web3's AI Agent with the application value of web2's AI Agent, which is understandable. However, the kernel driven by AI Agent will not change, but web2 chose business models such as API calls and user payment, and web3 chose Tokenomics. Therefore, all abstract concepts above AI Agent will be verified in monolithic AI application scenarios.

For example, for DeFai-like AI Agent, using TEEs to achieve independent custody of assets is only the first step. Whether AI can independently transform into real Swap, staking and other operations based on natural semantic understanding is the second step, but the logic to truly verify the maturity of the business model is AI Agent locks in the growth of TVL, the increase in TXs of users performing operations based on AI Agent, and the optimization of on-chain transactions to user UX experience (Gas friction, profit probability, etc.). Before these cannot be verified, it is difficult to be 100% sure which project will come out;

Before this, let go of the missed anxiety of MEME and lock in the innovative implementation of some value projects until a verifiable commercial innovation point that truly breaks the deadlock and a mature "foundation" that can accumulate abundant commercial value of the combination is formed.

3. The AI ​​Agent seems to have been subdivided into many subdivided fields including monolithic AI, framework standards, DeFai, etc., but it has basically not separated from the temperament of the "grass team".

Although no innovation field can get rid of the chaos of "chaotic era" in the early stage, the products behind the #ai16z open source spiritual totem are weak, the mature agent implementation challenges behind #Virtual's innovation, as well as many dev, repo, and potential business The market expectations of 30-300M that Roadmap can bring are obviously "irrational".

It should be said that the wrong valuation and pricing system, the wrong PVP Sutong Fomo environment, the unsatisfactory confidence in value innovation, etc. have jointly caused the short-term collapse of the AI ​​Agent. Fortunately, the market expectations of AI Agent are still there. Although the iron-blooded Holders are still holding on, many entrepreneurial "regular military forces" with strength, technical content and high thresholds are entering the market, such as: #arc Continuous catching up and challenge to ai16z, etc.

Obviously, the project model of AI Agent web3, which relies on AI Agent narrative to quickly issue asset issuance and MEME gameplay in the early stage, has been falsified, and the next wave of innovation is accumulating strength. This market cooling-off period may be the investment and research and development project to explore potential. time window.