redphone: 25 25-year predictions and 23 most bullish coins

Original author:redphone

Compilation｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina )

Translator | CryptoLeo (@LeoAndCrypto )

redphone has always been a crypto KOL that I like very much, and his content output is considered to be relatively high-quality among the crypto KOLs that I follow. In recent years, redphone has written a year-end review with the theme of "69 Theses" every year, including a full year of self-reflection and future prospects in the encryption industry. The following are 69 sentences from this year (the content has been slightly adjusted), compiled by Odaily Planet Daily:

3 Crypto Topics for 2024

AI invaded my brain and disrupted my thoughts

Mine is a writer and I have spent 10,000 hours practicing my writing. But now, any 10-year-old on the planet can ask Claude to write about it in a matter of seconds. A skill I had spent a lifetime honing was now a raw commodity. In other words, my life's work is equivalent to the circulating commodities of oil, tape or hemp rope, so who am I? Where do I come from? Where to go? I'm still trying to find out, and I'll delve into it in more depth below.

The "ultimate devil" is dead

With the November election, Americans have chosen orange man (note: orange specifically refers to Trump’s skin color) to lead them (and BTC) into the future. Before I thought it would take longer, but now we do it. The world’s richest government has been infiltrated by cryptocurrency loyalists. This means we have crossed the chasm and crypto is no longer a dream, it will become a fundamental part of business development. This is the moment we've all been waiting for, but it also means that part of cryptocurrency's original, iconoclastic soul has died. Cryptocurrency is now a tool of anarchists and the capitalist system.

Solana’s resurrection and prosperity in 2024

I thought Solana would die in 2021. Somehow, just three years later, it’s the blockchain I use the most (Base is 2nd, Ethereum is 3rd, and Bitcoin is 4th). If there is any reflection here, it is this: nothing is set in stone. Our thinking patterns should not be fixed, but open-ended.

Now, here’s a look at this year’s reflections:

Lessons Learned and Reflections in 2024

1. Talk about an unexpected thing, such as Fartcoin’s market value soaring to $1.2 billion and attracting everyone’s attention: absurd and crazy. But I liked the feeling, even though it was disorienting. As Madeline's nanny utters these words late at night in Season 1 of The Bitch: "There's something anomalous or not right." Technology frees us from rational, social constraints. We are now going to an unknown and strange new space, and this strange feeling starts to intensify from here.

2. Our consciousness will be affected by the evolution of tools. LLM has changed my communication and learning patterns, I write faster, edit less, and stretch more. Likewise, I read faster and can ask LLM to provide a summary of the main points of the article. If I don 't adapt to the tool, I will fall behind.

3. Decentralized technology is not limited to the financial field. This is a major trend driven by cryptocurrency and will spread to other fields: from cellular networks to electricity, politics, gaming platforms, and more. I was struck by the benefits of technology earlier this year when I used 3D printing to create a replacement bathroom shelf. It is no exaggeration to say that even the tools of production are being decentralized.

4. The truth is hidden beneath all your fears, and the truest words are often the most dangerous.

5. We must not be carried away by sweet words. With Trump 's election and TradFi's real entry into crypto, we enter a period where actual profits are higher than ideal, and cryptocurrencies have entered a very dangerous era.

6. Hemingway said that people do not become wiser as they get older, they just become more cautious. When artificial intelligence begins to disrupt our work, social life, politics and economy, the hardest thing for us to do is to be cautious, ask everyone around you to be cautious, do whatever you have to do, and also welcome uncertainty sex.

7. Difficulties are like a door. If crypto is a real game, there have to be losers. Maybe you fail in the crypto market 100 times, the best thing to do is to start over for the 101st time and you will win.

8. Matrix is ​​everywhere, but we call it "algorithm". These algorithms keep us stuck, looping, perceiving, searching, feeling like there’s never enough time. If you avoid these obstacles, become the most special person on earth: a deeply searching, mindful person.

9. There is only one direction left: forward. Don’t let anyone or anything force you to stand still and accept the status quo. Transform, grow and accelerate, this is our only chance.

10. Tokens symbolize our hopes and dreams. They are not only a tool for value transfer, but also a mirror that reflects our hopes and dreams. We project our aspirations onto founders, developers, and the ecosystem, which are directly and closely related to the price of the token. When investing, it’s important to remember that the greatest opportunities don’t just appear in your thoughts, they also have to be felt.

11. Desci’s future vision: Robots are on standby in the laboratory, and AI agents hire them in real time to run reproducible experiments on-chain with all inputs, parameters, and measurements . Thanks to tokenization, others can speculate on the feasibility of the experiment and share its benefits in due course.

12. The market is constantly intruding into the world before our eyes. It is no accident that the market continues to expand: prediction markets, betting markets, Meme coins, and the most interesting Futarchy (Odaily Note: Futarchy is also a voting method related to beliefs. First proposed by Robin Hanson in 2000, its purpose is to pass Using prediction markets to determine policy implementation to address the shortcomings of traditional democracy). If information is a "fundamental component of reality," then placing a price on information is one way of measuring its power. People think that more markets are a sign of growing nihilism, but what if it’s actually a sign of progress? Applying the wisdom of crowds to something that previously felt like a random coin toss?

13. Reduce fear. Fear occupies a large proportion in our hearts because it is crucial to our survival, even in the wild. But in this sanitized, narcotized, social media-driven simulation world we now live in, it makes almost no sense. Recognize that algorithms are designed to stir up fear in you, so when you feel fear, reduce your fear level (give a discount). For example, if an article convinces you that the chance of a market crash is 40%, then divide that chance. Use 10 (or any other number you feel comfortable with) as 4%.

14. Go behind the scenes. When I talk to critics of AI, they almost always have a reverent view of human creativity. “AI can never create new things because they are trained on information we create.” Andy Ayrey’s infinite backroom refutes this notion. When he created a chat space for LLM, LLM invented a religion that attracted the Truth Terminal, ultimately leading to the rise of GOAT.

15. As TradFi enters cryptocurrency, my identity has changed. Working in cryptocurrency has long been core to my identity. That has changed dramatically in the past year. I now view cryptocurrencies as one of many tools in the technology arsenal, all starting to converge. As cryptocurrencies and AI collide, so do we. We are no longer “cryptocurrency practitioners”. Emerging identities include: Trader (not unlike Wall Street types who share screenshots of options trades on Reddit) or Accelerationists (using cryptocurrencies and many other tools to decentralize and open source the world).

16. Stop thinking too narrowly. Two of the boldest moves in history: 1) In June 2014, Musk open sourced the Tesla electric car engineering design; 2) In July 2023, Zuckerberg open sourced Llama 2. Now it's your turn. You can stick to a protectionist, centralized, bureaucratic business model that impedes human progress, leads to unequal distribution of wealth, and makes an already wealthy elite even richer, or you can choose to help accelerate progress for everyone.

17. Seek volatility, not security. If your goal is to build as much wealth as possible before machines replace humans, then you have to discover the volatility of trading. The best traders in the world don 't shy away from volatility, they hunt for it like the Golden Snitch. Once you spot volatility and start trading, you have to reverse your emotional reaction. Hold when a few are selling and sell when a few are buying.

18. Nothing is more exhausting than Memecoin. There are two types of Memecoin: 1) traditional Memecoin (i.e. PEPE, WIF, BONK, DOGE, etc.); and 2) perceptual Memecoin (i.e. GOAT, LUNA, KWEEN). Category one relies on humans to spread; the other relies on machines. Traditional currencies must be transformed into conscious meme currencies, otherwise they will completely withdraw from the market.

19. Understand the triggers for your behavior and avoid them. Yuval Noah Harari identifies three triggers that algorithms use to generate maximum engagement: fear, hate, and greed. We see cryptocurrency as a world-changing technology and the “way of the future,” but there are still many people in the world wearing masks of greed who will be disturbed by these factors. I can feel the emotional impact of rising or falling markets. The bear market of the past few years has probably had more of a psychological impact on me than I care to admit. Now, when I feel the timeline or the market changing my mood, I shrug and say, "Good job, I know what you're doing, but I just don't care."

20. Choose the bright direction. There are two reactions to the impending super artificial intelligence: 1) Shit: “Everything that made me special is dead. Life sucks, Wngmi.” or 2) “Holy shit, don’t dare I believe I can survive until now. Extending lifespan, exploring shapes, humanoid robots, and rat race traps will no longer affect us. We can find the right direction and gaze into the pond of life to discover our true selves."

21. Intelligence is iterative. LLM has changed my concept of intelligence, but I must also realize that it is not deterministic and all LLM learning requires trial and error. Progress happens in fits and starts (whether you're a human or a machine), which means repeated testing/experimentation and feeling like you're "standing still" is also part of the growth process.

22. The rise of AI agents. Don’t be limited to today’s AI agents, models including Truth Terminal, zerebro, and aixbt will continue to evolve. In the future we will see trading agents, prediction agents, shopping agents, doctor agents, etc., some of which will evolve into huge independent enterprises. Their value will first reach billions of dollars, and as the singularity approaches, trillions of dollars.

23. Don’t let AI take away your humanity. My biggest fear about AI is not the annihilation of humanity, but the domestication of humanity. I call it dog-pawed: being subtly fed toxic information, which is not crude manipulation but subtle guidance. Just like a domesticated dog can read human expressions, artificial intelligence will have a precise grasp of our psychological triggers, cognitive blind spots, and deepest desires. Soon, we will find ourselves eagerly approaching our “digital masters,” eyes twinkling with piety, eagerly awaiting the next validation of algorithmic perfection. What is really scary is not that AI will destroy humans, but that AI will tame humans. Like our dogs, we happily wag our tails under domestication and forget our true nature.

24. The charm of edge. My five favorite emerging topics for 2024 are: Futarchy, AI agents, LLM Backroom, intersubjectivity, and longevity escape velocity (Odaily note: longevity escape velocity is a hypothetical concept that refers to the number of times that technology can drive each year The rate at which the average human lifespan is increasing. When this rate is fast enough, human lifespan can be extended indefinitely, and even reach theoretical immortality). It’s highly recommended to spend a few minutes exploring each topic with a chatbot (or better yet, a book).

25. Excessive privilege. On the trading floor, the spoils belong to those who act first, and acting early takes time, exploration, and perhaps most importantly, imagination. If you act early and often, it will pay off in the end. Assuming this is true (and my experience bears it out), the hard part is not building wealth, but knowing when you 've reached your goal and getting out. A very different game awaits us on the other side—a game not about the intellect, but about the soul. Hope to see you there.

25 Predictions for 2025

1. Several LLM-based agents initially launched as crypto-native perceptrons will be “embedded” into IRL bots that we can talk to and interact with IRL.

2. The number of LLM driven applications/protocols launched in 2025 will be comparable to new smart contract only applications/protocols (e.g. I wouldn’t feel comfortable if all prediction markets converted to LLM based settlement methods surprise).

3. ZK proof/MPC will make breakthrough progress for the first time at the application or protocol level.

4. The main KOLs in crypto and AI will be based on LLM, while AI-driven KOLs will dominate almost all other social media platforms (YouTube, Insta, TikTok, etc.).

5. Artificial Intelligence will change your workflow within the next year (if it hasn’t happened already).

6. Perceptual robots will accumulate more than US$250 million in investment by 2025.

7. The category with the fastest job growth this year will be non-human sensing as AI protocols like LinkedIn will experience parabolic growth.

8. An AI agent will win the Time Magazine Person of the Year Award.

9. The value of TVL on the chain will reach 8 times to 1 trillion US dollars.

10. AI agent platforms and tokens will grow 50 times to $500 billion.

11. In 2025, the first humanoid robot “kidnapping” incident will occur and make international headlines.

12. ACCELERATE (Odaily Note: Accelerationism, derived from Roger Zelazny's novel "Lord of Light", emphasizes the huge power contained in emerging technologies and advocates the rapid development of science and technology. Accelerationism in this article tends to reshape the existing economic foundation to guide The direction of technological development ) has become the e/acc (Effective Accelerationism: emphasizing the promotion and transformation of society by technological innovation) of this cycle , replacing the EA (Effective Accelerationism) that is loved by SBF. Altruism: using a large portion of idle resources to help others and change the world ).

13. The narratives that will compete with (but not surpass) AI next year are: RWA, RWA, and RWA. PS: Honorable mentions for DePin, DeSci, and Gaming Track.

14. Web 4 has gained more attention than Web 3 as encryption, decentralized web, DePin and AI accelerate their merger.

15. X will integrate a crypto wallet that supports DOGE and other mainstream tokens.

16. The most radical and exciting agent experiments progress faster on decentralized social media (like Farcaster) as X strives to strike a balance between human and agent content.

17. You interact with “someone” online and later realize you are talking to an LLM.

18. Agent-created protocols and applications (like Spore.fun) are going parabolic, flooded with new tokens and experiments. Decentralization drives capital into pre-existing leaders and applications that benefit from overall agent growth (COOKIE or VIRTUAL).

19. At least one AI-generated movie has produced a truly flawless work of art — paving the way for an AI-based Oscar in 2026.

20. Cookie.fun and rwa.xyz will become the same head encryption data analysis platform as CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Dune, and DefiLlam.

21. “Regular” meme coins launch real mascots/spokespersons (or they start to slowly fade away, but that becomes irrelevant).

22. The cryptocurrency market is divided into the "left curve" cryptocurrency native Degen and the "middle curve" tradfi traders, who expect value accumulation in the DeFi game.

23. The eventual explosion of BTCFi will drive the adoption of runes and inscriptions on Bitcoin as Bitcoin believers look to use their BTC as collateral for borrowing.

24. From now on, the competition between AGI and ASI will not slow down, but will only accelerate, which will inevitably lead to existential anxiety for almost every knowledge worker on the planet. o 3 now beats the PhD in a specific area where it can outperform most programmers. And it scores higher than average on the ARC test. Just as the ancients held the heliocentric theory, we believe in the anthropocentric theory. These arguments must change in the face of LLM, which can already pass the Turing test and show the momentum to lead the future.

25. As humans struggle to find meaning in a rapidly changing world, a powerful, AI-based religion is not only attracting attention but also bringing in some real converts. This may have happened through: Truth Terminal and GOAT, or tentatively using these ideas as seeds for new concepts of meaning and direction.

23 project tokens that I am optimistic about

Having published crypto articles publicly for five years, I can confidently say, “A year is too long to predict, but the following coins are my current favorites.” Ask me three months from now, and maybe The list will be completely different than it is now. There is a reason why these tokens dominate the market and have high market caps: they are exploring the frontiers of the future. Note, this is not financial advice! DYOR!

1. BTC. BTC has been a “civilian game” for many years. Discussions about Bitcoin’s strategic reserve changed its fate. It became the "Game of Kings." BTC prices will rise until owning 1 BTC becomes a dream for most people.

2. Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): The core infrastructure of the AI ​​agent on Base.

3. Ethena (ENA), TradFi understands returns better than any carbon-based organism on the planet, and as TradFi enters the cryptocurrency space, they will covet what may become a protocol that generates greater returns.

4. Tokenbot (CLANKER), the decentralized social network Farcaster version of pump.fun, a very interesting token issuance platform.

5. aixbt (AIXBT) If I could only follow one crypto alpha account on X, it would probably be AIXBT. Today it mostly copies other people's narratives, but he missed nothing and I hope the AIXBT insights will deepen and develop over time.

6. Cookie DAO (COOKIE), Cookie.fun is a data analysis platform that emerged with the explosion of AI Agent, providing data and sentiment analysis for all AI tokens. I think this will attract crypto funds deployed in 2025 Q1 force.

7. Helium (HNT), the leading DePin project in the encryption industry. On a recent day, more than 349,000 people used mobile phone service in the United States.

8. Meta (META), a radical experiment in turning difficult decisions into markets through futarchy.

9. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT), the first and original AI agent to gain a cult following on social media, powered by Truth Terminal, the agent’s backstory reads like an article written by Hunter S. Thompson on drugs Report.

10. Ondo Finance (ONDO) is currently a representative project in the RWA field. Oversupply may suppress price trends, but I would rather participate in the transaction than exit. Additionally, another RWA token worth keeping an eye on is Chex Token (CHEX).

11. ai16z and eliza. The Eliza framework for launching on-chain proxies is the leading repo on Github, covering all industries (not just cryptocurrencies), and is digging deeper into the long-term relevance of each branch.

12. Bittensor (TAO) Bittensor claims to be the first "Neural Internet", which provides an interconnection center for decentralized AI projects to deploy code and compete for TAO. In some ways, I see it as a decentralized AI incubator and a testing ground for the feasibility of AI ideas.

13. WZRD (Bitcoin Wizards Ordinals) and PUPS (Pups), one of my favorite tokens in the Bitcoin ecosystem, WZRD will soon transform into one of the greatest Memes of all time. At the same time, PUPS is the Schelling point of the well-known NFT puppet monkey in the BTC ecosystem.

14. Aave (AAVE) If we assume that one day everything will be tokenized, then most of these assets will be eligible to be used as collateral on Aave’s platform. AAVE is one of the few tokens in crypto that I think will eventually hit the trillion-dollar mark.

15. Arweave (AR), as the permanent data storage layer of Web 4, is quietly moving forward. Including most Solana NFTs, Arweave stores approximately 6 terabytes of data permanently per month, and its upcoming AO should be a significant catalyst for further growth.

16. Zerebro (ZEREBRO), an OG “on-chain AI artist”, can generate AI agents for music, art, Meme and NFT.

17. Worldcoin (WLD). WLD was founded by OpenAI’s Sam Altman to introduce an “AI-funded UBI” to the world. On one hand I hate it and its iris scanner, but on the other hand I can't ignore its connection to Altman and OpenAI, the integration of which could make it one of the top ten currencies overnight.

18. Drift Protocol (DRIFT), on-chain perps and prediction markets on Solana. Solana is doing well with spot Memecoin trading, and I expect that over time it will start to generate a lot of perps trading volume as well.

19. Griffin (GRIFFAIN) and AI Rig Complex (arc) compete for the "Virtuals of Solana" crown.

Conclusion

We are warned that "this time it's different" is a dangerous statement that only a fool caught up in speculative mania would believe. Yet we conveniently forget moments of technological change—when Gutenberg’s printing spread knowledge, when the Industrial Revolution pulled us from farms to cities, when the Internet destroyed local commerce.

In other words, "This time is different" is true to some extent. We now stand on the edge of such a moment. Society's rules, traditions, and how we view ourselves will be rewritten. This process is brutal and has consequences.

You can stick to the old ways, or you can become a pioneer in the era of change, let our light illuminate the abyss and accelerate progress.