QCP Capital: More positive bullish outlook may not appear until the third quarter

PANews March 10th news, Singapore's crypto investment institution QCP Capital issued a statement today saying that last Friday's non-farm employment data (NFP) brought some respite to the stock market and cryptocurrency market, further strengthening the market's expectations for a rate cut in May. Bitcoin remained at around $86,000 for most of Saturday, which seemed to lay the foundation for a steady recovery this week. However, the momentum was interrupted by Bybit hacking incidents during a low liquidity period on Sunday, which cashed at least $300 million from a record $1.5 billion cryptocurrency theft, causing BTC and ETH to test key support levels again.

As hackers have shown willingness to cash out rather than taking the risk of further losses (the stolen assets have depreciated by 25%), coin holders may sell early to avoid supply pressures from further selling of hackers, which may exacerbate today's price decline. In the past 24 hours, the risk reversal demand for put options has increased further, reflecting the increasing market concerns about additional selling pressure.

Although $80,000 remains the key support level for BTC in the near future, the upside space also seems to be limited, as the narrative of strategic Bitcoin reserves has been fully priced by the market. Recent options flows suggest that a more positive bullish outlook may not appear until the third quarter. The correlation between BTC and stock markets may be further enhanced in the short term until the cryptocurrency market finds a new narrative. Currently, both risky assets are trading near recent lows, and tariff risks remain, market volatility is likely to rise before the release of key U.S. macro data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI, Wednesday) and the Producer Price Index (PPI, Thursday).