How to move after BTC falls to $80,000 at the lowest point? A brief analysis of the 4 most likely scripts

Author: Crypto Stream

Compiled: Tim, PANews

There is uncertainty in the market outlook, but some possible scripts are worth paying attention to.

Different time frames, the effects of catalysts vary: some are instant, while others take months to manifest.

The following four scripts are most likely to happen to Bitcoin:

Script 1: Catalystless Drive and Slow Blood Loss

Although the announcement of the US Bitcoin strategic reserves is a milestone, the capital flow behind it is actually moderate. If new catalysts are lacking, a gradual sell-off may occur as market enthusiasm fades and funds turn to other assets.

• Time frame: 1-8 weeks
• Impact degree: low to moderate, but long duration
• Key signals: ETF capital inflows decline, interest in holdings weakens, liquidity shrinks

Script 2: Animal Spirit and Relief Rebound

Bitcoin’s strategic reserves may still trigger a short-term emotional recovery, attracting traditional finance to refocus BTC. If MicroStrategy announces additional issuance of shares to buy Bitcoin, and the stock market rises, it may trigger a temporary but sharp price surge.

• Time frame: Next 7-14 days
• Impact degree: moderate, but short
• Key signals: ETF capital flow surge, MSTR stock issuance, stock market rise

PANews notes: Animal Spirits refers to the irrational impulses and group psychological effects of market participants; Relief Rally refers specifically to the market 's stress rise after major risk events ease, which can be understood as a recurring rebound.

Script 3: Improved adoption rate

Even if the strategic reserves do not immediately form a positive capital flow, it still sends a strong signal:

1. Retail investors see progress in Bitcoin adoption
2. Institutions receive dovish cryptocurrency signals, which may speed up entry
3. Banks, insurance companies and other countries may see this as an early signal of BTC in their balance sheets.

This scenario is not a short-term catalyst, but increases the probability of entry of large institutions.

• Time frame: 3 months +
• Impact degree: The probability of a single trigger is low, but it is subversive
• Key signals: large institutions' exposure to increased, pension funds enter, sovereign wealth funds increase holdings

Script 4: Liquidity drives slow rise

Some people believe that the supply of M2 money is the real driving force for Bitcoin price.

Currently, M2 has bottomed out and rebounded rapidly. Historical data shows that BTC prices usually lag behind liquidity trends for about 20 days.

If this logic is true, Bitcoin may start a volatile upward mode in the next few weeks. However, skeptics point out that not all liquidity in the broad money supply (M2) will be transmitted to risky assets such as Bitcoin. But the opposing view believes that the original intention of Bitcoin was to absorb such liquidity, so in my opinion, this correlation has important reference value.

• Time frame: 20-40 days
• Impact degree: stable and slow rise in the medium term
• Key signals: M2 continues to expand, Ministry of Finance accounts (TGAs) shrink, stablecoin capital inflows

PANews notes: M2 is an indicator of money supply, which belongs to the basic concept in economics. Its core functions are monetary policy anchors, inflation warnings, and economic vitality indicators.