PA Daily | Goldman Sachs raises expectations for U.S. recession probability and tariff rate
Reprinted from panewslab
03/31/2025·1MToday's news tips:
Spot gold broke through $3,100 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high again
Goldman Sachs raises U.S. recession probability and tariff rate expectations
Trader Eugene: Has established a medium position SOL long order at $125
Binance will add FUN/USDT, MLN/USDT perpetual contracts, supporting 50x leverage
CoinShares: Digital asset investment products flowed in $226 million last week
Regulatory/Macro
According to official news, Japanese listed company Metaplanet Inc. announced that according to a resolution passed by a board meeting held on March 31, 2025, the company has issued 2 billion yen zero-interest ordinary bonds to EVO FUND, and the funds raised from this issuance will be used to purchase Bitcoin.
Spot gold broke through $3,100 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high again
According to Jinshi, spot gold maintained a bull market trend, breaking through $3,100 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high again, with an intraday increase of 0.5%, only half a month after breaking $3,000, and has accumulated nearly 18% so far this year.
Goldman Sachs raises U.S. recession probability and tariff rate expectations
According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its expectations for U.S. tariffs in its research report early this morning, warning that escalating trade tensions may seriously affect economic growth, inflation and employment. The bank currently expects the average U.S. tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points in 2025, higher than the previous 10 percentage points baseline. The main reason for the increase is that the comprehensive "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on April 2 are expected to impose an average of 15% tariffs on all U.S. trading partners, and the average actual impact of the tariffs is expected to increase by 9 percentage points. Goldman Sachs raised its core PCE inflation expectations by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% by the end of 2025, citing the impact of rising import costs on inflation. GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.0% in the fourth quarter, down 0.5 percentage points from previous expectations, and the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.5% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months to 35%, citing weak sentiment from consumers and businesses, and there are signs that policymakers may be more willing to accept near-term economic pain in pursuit of broader policy goals. As real income growth has slowed down, the economy may be entering a more vulnerable stage, with sentiment and policy risks dragging the economy more than in recent years. In addition, Goldman Sachs said it is now expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in July, September and November.
Viewpoint
Matrixport officially stated that since hitting a high of $3,668 on January 7, 2025, Ethereum price has fallen by 50%. At present, the on-chain activity of the Ethereum ecosystem has slowed down significantly, fundamentals are weak, ETH demand continues to be sluggish, and market sentiment is obviously short. As multiple key risk events approach, derivatives markets have begun pricing a significant 10% fluctuation in the next week (regardless of direction). It is worth noting that Ethereum price is gradually approaching the lows during the FTX bankruptcy period, and FTX is expected to start repayment to major creditors on May 30, 2025.
CryptoQuant: MVRV dead cross signal appears, Bitcoin downside risk intensifies
According to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei dent, the Bitcoin MVRV (market value to realization value ratio) indicator showed a "dead cross" signal of the 30-day moving average crossing the 365-day moving average in early March, indicating that the short-term momentum weakens and the downward pressure increases. Historical data shows that this signal is usually accompanied by a price pullback. With the current MVRV approaching the long-term historical average, the market has left the overheating range, but no clear bottom signal has appeared yet, and investors need to be wary of the risk of further declines.
Analysis: Bitcoin macro index has a bearish divergence, which may impact $110,000
According to Cointelegraph analysis, the Bitcoin macro index shows bearish divergence and the recovery of key indicators is weak, which adds uncertainty to the path of Bitcoin hitting $110,000.
According to 10x Research analysis, Bitcoin’s rebound in the past three weeks has been frustrated by higher-than-expected core PCE data. Data show that inflation is rising, driven in part by Trump’s tariff policies, which weakens consumer confidence. One-year inflation expectations rose to 5.0%, causing risky assets to perform poorly and trigger stop loss on their short-term bullish strategy. 10x Research expects Bitcoin to fall below $80,000 this week as multiple risk aversion factors may put pressure on the stock market and affect the cryptocurrency market. Trump's tariff policy has shifted from initial moderate expectations to more radical, with the market worried that tariffs may be implemented first and the negotiation process has been postponed. This change significantly increases market uncertainty. In addition, if the ISM manufacturing PMI data is weak, it may intensify market pressure; and if the US employment data continues to be strong, it may delay the Fed's intervention, putting further pressure on the market. It is worth noting that the VIX index is still at a low level, indicating that many traders may underestimate the short-term downside risks.
Financial giant Vanguard Group may soon be indirectly exposed to Bitcoin through its own GameStop stake, marking an unexpected twist in the company's traditional cautious attitude towards cryptocurrencies, according to Bitcoin.com. This development follows a series of initiatives from GameStop, which is one of GameStop's largest shareholders. Vanguard is currently the largest institutional shareholder of GameStop. The shareholding relationship has attracted widespread attention after GameStop announced its turn to the Bitcoin strategy. On March 26, Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at asset management company Bitwise, posted on social media platform X, saying: "Vanguard bought Bitcoin through GameStop, which is incredible." This comment highlights the particularity of the incident, as Vanguard has long avoided direct involvement in crypto assets. Rasmussen's comments were in response to Bitwise's chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who pointed out that Vanguard is the largest shareholder of GameStop. Vanguard's indirect entry into Bitcoin through GameStop is in stark contrast to its usual digital asset stance. Although asset management companies such as BlackRock and Fidelity have embraced cryptocurrencies by launching Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, Vanguard still chooses to stay out of the matter. In December 2024, Vanguard reiterated its anti-bitcoin stance, saying that digital assets are speculative and lack intrinsic value.
Trader Eugene: Has established a medium position SOL long order at $125
Trader Eugene posted on his personal channel that he had established a medium-sized SOL long position at the $125 position. Eugene believes that the market has fluctuated sharply from US$88,000 to US$82,000 recently. Coupled with GME and Mara catalysts, as well as the extreme unfavorable tariff scenarios that may occur before April 2, it makes this a good risk-reward ratio position, and the stop loss level below is also clearer.
Project News
Binance will add FUN/USDT, MLN/USDT perpetual contracts, supporting 50x leverage
Binance announced that it will launch two new perpetual contracts, with the specific arrangements as follows: FUNUSDT Perpetual Contract: will be launched at 16:30 on March 31, 2025, supporting up to 50 times of leverage. MLNUSDT Perpetual Contract: will be launched at 16:45 Beijing time on March 31, 2025, supporting up to 50 times of leverage.
Musk says US government has no plans to use Dogecoin
According to Decrypt, on March 30, at a town hall meeting hosted by Musk's "America PAC", Musk drew the federal Department of Efficiency (DOGE) and Dogecoin cryptocurrency on March 30. "As far as I know, the government has no plans to use Dogecoin or anything like that. Their names happen to be similar, but in reality, we are just trying to make the government more efficient by 15%.
Important data
According to SoSoValue data, three of the top 500 cryptocurrencies with market value in the past 30 days have increased by more than 100%. The specific increase data is as follows: Saros (SAROS) is up 483.86%, currently priced at $0.07999; Subsquid (SQD) is up 119.77%, currently priced at $0.15764; CZ' Broccoli (BROCCOLI) is up 113.71%, priced at $0.05191; FUNTOken (FUN) is up 97.84%, priced at $0.00495; Venom (VENOM) is up 96.93%, priced at $0.11623; Cheems (CHEEMS) The increase is 94.51%, and is currently quoted at US$0.01576; Solayer (LAYER) is 68.90%, and is currently quoted at US$1.374; FARTCOIN (FAR) is 56.61%, and is currently quoted at US$0.3934; X Empire (X) is 55.17%, and is currently quoted at US$0.08401; Alchemist (ALCH) is 54.98%, and is currently quoted at US$0.06554.
CoinShares: Digital asset investment products flowed in $226 million last week
According to CoinShares' latest weekly report, digital asset investment products recorded $226 million inflows last week, indicating that investors are positive but still cautious. Altcoins recorded $33 million inflows for the first time after four consecutive weeks of capital outflows (total of $1.7 billion). The main beneficiaries are Ethereum ($14.5 million), Solana ($7.8 million), XRP ($4.8 million) and Sui ($4 million). Bitcoin recorded $195 million inflows last week, while investment products shorted Bitcoin experienced $2.5 million outflows for the fourth consecutive week. Due to recent price declines, Bitcoin’s total managed assets fell to $114 billion, the lowest level since the U.S. election. In terms of regional data, the inflows of funds in the United States, Switzerland and Germany were US$204 million, US$14.7 million and US$9.2 million respectively. Small outflows occurred in Hong Kong (US$2.1 million) and Brazil (US$1.3 million).
Financing
According to official news, Capx AI, the Ethereum Layer2 network for AI agents, completed a seed round of $3.14 million, led by Manifold and Luganodes, and followed by institutions such as Echo, P2 Ventures (Polygon Ventures), Gate Labs, Stix, MH Ventures, Blue7, Cogitent Ventures, Autonomy Capital, Next Web Capital, Blockarm Capital, Mythos Venture Partners (MVP), Arcanum Capital and other institutions. Individual investors include well-known industry insiders such as Sandeep Nailwal, Richard Ma and Amrit Kumar. According to reports, Capx AI is an Ethereum Layer2 network designed to enable users to build, monetize and trade AI agents. It provides an integrated ecosystem of Capx Chain, Capx Super App and Capx Cloud to facilitate the creation, deployment and exchange of AI-driven applications.
DeCharge, a decentralized charging project based on Solana, completes $2.5 million seed round
According to Decrypt, DeCharge, a decentralized charging project based on Solana, announced that it will complete a seed round of $2.5 million. This round of financing was led by Lemniscap, with participation from institutions such as Colosseum, Daedalus, Escape Velocity and Levitate Labs. According to reports, DeCharge is a community-driven electric vehicle charging network built on Solana. It realizes decentralized ownership and monetization of electric vehicle charging through modular charging stations, allowing anyone to host and operate the charging infrastructure.
Arcium, a parallel privacy computing network, completes $1 million angel round financing
According to official news, parallel privacy computing project Arcium (formerly known as Elusiv) announced the completion of a $1 million angel round of financing, with investors including Jordi Alexander, Joe McCann, WereMeow, Fedor Holz and RunnerXBT. Arcium said the round brought its total financing to $11 million. According to reports, Arcium is a decentralized confidential computing network that utilizes distributed architecture and multi-party computing (MPC) to ensure data integrity and confidentiality by processing encrypted data across multiple nodes without exposing a complete data set.
AI agent public chain Hibit completes $5 million financing
AI agent public chain Hibit recently announced that it has completed a US$5 million financing, with Bochsler Finance, Nvdia, Bo Shen (Fenbushi Capital), Waterdrip Capital, Web3 Venture, Betterverse DAO, Hitters and many traditional entrepreneurs participating in the investment. This round of funds will be used to promote the ecological construction of Layer2 infrastructure, Hibit DEX, full-chain interoperability technology and AI Agent economy.
According to reports, Hibit is an independent Layer2, which has covered multiple public chains such as TON, Kaspa, Solana, ETH, BTC, BNB, ICP, etc., and provides secure cross-chain solutions for non-cross-chain bridges. Its core product Hibit DEX integrates CEX and DEX features to serve AI agent and Meme community scenarios.
Singapore-based digital asset infrastructure provider BetterX announced a SGD2.3 million (approximately US$1.7 million) Series A financing to support its expansion in Asia, the Middle East and the United States. The round attracted new investors, including Grand Prix Capital, Aument Capital, and angel investors such as Sabrina Tachdjian of the HBAR Foundation and Riaz Mehta of Crypto Knights. Existing supporters, including Aura Group and Tibra co-founder Kinsey Cotton, also participated in the round. Founders of former investors Scalare Partners, Wholesale Investor, B7 Capital and Audacy Ventures were also involved in the round.
