OSL trading moment: The market may enter a consolidation period before the next decline, and the behavior of large investors has become a key indicator

1. Market Observation

Keywords: XRP, ETH, BTC

The current cryptocurrency market is in a period of turmoil, with Bitcoin and Ethereum being the core of market development, and its performance is particularly eye-catching. The entire cryptocurrency market suffered a downturn on Tuesday, with major currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin suffering significant losses, with a total market value falling below the $3 trillion mark, and a consolidation is expected to occur before the next decline. Expect.

In terms of Bitcoin, the market performance has been difficult in the face of radical investor sentiment, causing the price to fall below the $90,000 mark recently. At the regulatory level, several states are cautious about Bitcoin: Pennsylvania Attorney General issued a warning stating that Bitcoin ATM fraud methods are becoming increasingly complex; at the same time, South Dakota and Montana are considering the high and lack of volatility in Bitcoin. In practice, both rejected the proposal of the Bitcoin Reserve Act. While Bernstein analysts predict that Bitcoin is expected to reach $200,000, there is uncertainty about the realization of this goal under the current market conditions.

The Ethereum ecosystem also faces multiple challenges. At the governance level, executive director Aya Miyaguchi chose to resign because of his role in the Ethereum Foundation. On the technical level, the Ethereum upgraded version of Pectra has caused an interruption problem after release due to the failure of developers to specify the correct smart contract address. But it is worth noting that Ethereum’s cost base distribution shows a positive downward trend, indicating that investor sentiment and confidence in the currency are rising.

In terms of market dynamics, the well-known trading platform Bybit received a large amount of Ethereum deposits from Arkham, Mirana Ventures, despite suffering a well-planned malware attack last week, with losses of more than $1.5 billion. This phenomenon occurs against the backdrop of tariff uncertainty and Bitcoin’s fall below key support levels, highlighting the complexity of the market.

Looking ahead, the behavior of large-scale farmers (whales) will become a key indicator of the market trend. Data shows that these big players have transferred 26,430 BTC to known cumulative addresses. However, market signals indicate that Bitcoin’s market structure is facing the threat of potential price adjustments and weakened support levels, and we need to continue to pay attention to future market development.

2. Key data (as of 10:30 HKT on February 26)

• S&P 500: 5,955.25 points (+1.25% within the year)

• Nasdaq: 19,026.39 points (-1.47% within the year)

• 10-year US Treasury yield: 4.324% (-25.20 basis points within the year)

• US dollar index: 106.37 (-1.95% within the year)

• Bitcoin: $88,598 (-5.16%), daily spot trading volume is $84.7 billion

• Ethereum: USD 2,485.23 (-25.70% during the year), daily spot trading volume is USD 39.25 billion

3.ETF flow direction (EST, February 25)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$773.41 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$50.08 million

4. Important date (Hong Kong time)

The second estimate of GDP quarterly growth rate (21:30 on February 28)

• Actual: None/Previous value: 3.1% / Expected: 2.3%

Core PCE price index month-on-month (21:30 on February 28)

• Actual: None/Previous value: 0.2% / Expected: 0.3%

Personal consumption expenditure month-on-month (09:30, February 28)

• Actual: None/Previous value: 0.7% / Expected: 0.2%

5. Hot News

Hemi main network will be launched on March 12 to integrate Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystem

Aya Miyaguchi, Executive Director of the Ethereum Foundation, will be transferred to chairman

AI company Anthropic plans to raise $3.5 billion with a valuation of $61.5 billion

Aave votes to suspend Polygon PoS chain lending, which may cause over $300 million in TVL churn

SEC terminates investigation into Uniswap Labs, taking no enforcement action

SEC confirms receipt of Grayscale Ethereum spot ETF pledge application

In the past 1 hour, BlackRock deposited 18,168.3 ETH and 1,800 BTC to Coinbase

Market News: Nasdaq has submitted 19b-4 application documents for Grayscale DOT ETF

BTC fell below $87,000, down 7.84% intraday

Binance Pre Market launches uplink circuit breaker mechanism

Upbit will launch COW's Korean won, BTC and USDT trading pairs

Matrixport: Bitcoin has fallen below the rising expansion wedge, beware of the risk of downward low trading volume

Founder of Time.fun: In the future, I will consider issuing platform tokens, but at this stage, I will focus on the market fit of the product.

US SEC accepts Cardano spot ETF applications submitted by Grayscale

Fed Goulsby: Wait and see Trump policy before resuming interest rate cuts

Trump officially announced: Tariff plans toward Mexico and Canada will be promoted as scheduled

Most tokens have fallen from 30% to 80% since mid-December last year, and SOL's market value has shrunk by about $50 billion in a single month.

Today's Panic and Greed Index fell to 25, hitting a new low since September 2024, and the market turned into a state of extreme fear.

Wall Street's largest market maker Citadel Securities plans to enter the cryptocurrency market maker

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin bearish to $70,000

Ethereum Pectra upgrade activated on Holesky test network but failed to confirm in the end, developers are investigating

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