OSL Trading Moment: Cryptocurrencies show a volatile trend, the market expects a "Santa Claus rebound"

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

The cryptocurrency market has shown a volatile trend recently. Despite expectations of a "Santa Claus bounce," Bitcoin has fallen due to reduced buying activity from large investors. Concerns that the Federal Reserve may take a more hawkish stance and reduce expectations for interest rate cuts also contributed to the weakness in the cryptocurrency market over the weekend. Notably, tokenization platform Allo secured $100 million in funding to bolster its Bitcoin-backed lending business. Although Ethereum failed to hit all-time highs, it still showed strong growth potential.

Analyst Justin Bennett pointed out that BTC’s current bullish pattern is similar to previous surges, predicting that Bitcoin may break through $168,500 based on historical trends. On the institutional front, MicroStrategy continues to be optimistic about Bitcoin, adding 5,262 BTC to its holdings for $561 million. This is also the company’s seventh consecutive week of buying behavior. Meanwhile, Senator Ted Cruz expressed support for Bitcoin at the Turning Point Americafest conference.

However, the market also faces some challenges. The Wall Street Journal raised concerns that Bitcoin may be threatened by quantum computing, and based on historical patterns, BTC’s price correction could reach 30%. Bitcoin’s current average transaction volume is $31 billion, which is still well below its all-time high. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers noted that $84,000 is Bitcoin’s “maximum pain” level ahead of a major options expiration in December. Still, key indicators of on-chain activity point to sustainable growth in the Web3 space.

2. Key data (as of December 24, Eastern United States)

• S&P 500: 6,040.04 points (+26.50% during the year)

• Nasdaq: 20,031.13 points (+32.88% during the year)

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.591% (+70.4 basis points during the year)

• US dollar index: 108.095 (+6.63% during the year)

• Bitcoin: $98,173.47 (+128.0% for the year), daily spot trading volume of $46.935 billion

• Ethereum: $3,489.17 (+53.50% during the year), with daily spot trading volume of $23.267 billion

3.ETF flow direction

• Bitcoin ETF: -$150 million (Dec. 24 EST)

• Ethereum ETF: +$131M (December 23rd EST)

4.Important dates

The Christmas holiday is approaching. Hong Kong stocks and financial markets in many European countries will be closed for two and a half days starting from Tuesday (24th), and US stocks will be closed for one and a half days.

5. Hot news

• VitaDAO plans to distribute 6.9 million BIO to VITA and VitaDAO IPT holders

• GoPlus releases GPS token economics: 10% of the total supply will be used for airdrops

• aiPool Community: There are still 10% of tokens that have not yet been distributed, and the final distribution is expected to be completed tomorrow at the latest

• Glassnode: Solana has maintained positive net capital inflows since early September 2023

• South Korea’s average daily cryptocurrency trading volume in November was the same as the stock market, and the total number of investors exceeded 15 million

• An anonymous user pledged 10,000 BTC on Babylon 10 days ago, worth over US$1 billion.

• A whale that received 116.7 million PENGU airdrops purchased US$1 million in PENGU tokens

• Cumberland deposited 16,201 ETH to Coinbase, worth approximately $55 million

• Binance Alpha adds 5 new projects: GAME, UFD, GEL, GOUT and YNE

• Sahara AI releases 2024-2025 roadmap: Sahara Chain mainnet will be launched in Q3 2025

• Justin Sun denies rumors of clearing ETH: This is just an ETH transfer operation between different wallets by the team

• The full-chain interoperability protocol Analog mainnet is officially launched and core functions will be introduced before TGE

• Mt.Gox has transferred over 3,631 BTC to B2C2 Group since December 5

• Matrixport: Bitcoin’s correction may prepare for a rebound in 2025, and $90,000 to $95,000 may be an excellent correction range

• Binance supports Fantom’s name change to Sonic and token swap

• Virtual Protocol ecological tokens are generally rising, and GAME has increased by more than 30% in 24 hours

• IOTA will introduce a sustainable token economic model with an annual inflation rate of 6%

• South Korean regulator denies reports it will soon allow businesses to buy cryptocurrencies

• Forbes predicts seven major trends in the crypto industry in 2025: G7 or BRICS countries will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves

• Grayscale announced that it has opened 22 cryptocurrency trust products for private placement subscription

• Meme coins will account for 31% of crypto narratives in 2024, an increase of nearly 4 times compared to last year

• IRS again insists cryptocurrency staking is taxable in lawsuit

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