OSL trading moment: BTC trading activity drops sharply, ETH will find it difficult to return to the $2,800 mark

1. Market Observation

Keywords: ETF, ETH, BTC

Ethereum is currently difficult to break through the $2,800 mark, bringing uncertainty to short-term price trends. In terms of institutional investment, both the Wisconsin Investment Commission (SWIB) and Barclays have adjusted their cryptocurrency portfolios, reducing exposure to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETFs, while increasing holdings to BlackRock iShares Bitcoin ETFs. It is worth noting that Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund has also purchased the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF with a scale of hundreds of millions of dollars.

In terms of regulatory development, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to introduce pledge services into the Grayscale Ethereum ETF, which could bring additional benefits to investors. Meanwhile, a Texas federal judge suspended the SEC's case against Bitcoin miner Geosyn after filing criminal charges against three executives.

Regarding the future prospects of Bitcoin, there are differences in market views: some people are optimistic about breakthroughs, while others believe that Bitcoin is less likely to exceed $200,000 in the current decade. It is worth noting that Bitcoin trading activity has seen a significant decline in 2025, which may be related to the unstable mining environment. However, at the government level, Michigan’s proposal to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve shows a positive attitude of state-level government towards cryptocurrencies.

2. Key data (as of 10:30 HKT on February 17)

• S&P 500: 5,005.57 points (+4.92% within the year)

• Nasdaq: 15,906.17 points (+5.95% within the year)

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.295% (+41.5 basis points within the year)

• USD Index: 104.27 (+2.96% within the year)

• Bitcoin: $52,168 (+22.14% during the year), daily spot trading volume is $29.86 billion

• Ethereum: $2,789 (+15.23% during the year), daily spot trading volume is $14.28 billion

3.ETF flow direction (EST, February 16)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$215 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$120 million

4. Important date (Hong Kong time)

US PPI month-on-month in January (21:30 on February 13)

• Actual: 0.4% / Previous Value: 0.2% / Expected: 0.3%

Retail sales in the United States in January were month-on-month (21:30 on February 14)

• Actual: -0.9% / Previous Value: 0.7% / Expected: -0.1%

Minutes of the Federal Reserve Meeting (03:30, February 20)

5. Hot News

Preview of this week | FTX starts debt repayment; Consensus Hong Kong will open on February 18

Data: Tokens such as MURA, MELANIA, FTN will be unlocked in large amounts, of which MURA unlocking is worth approximately US$85.4 million

Macro outlook for the week: Traders resume pricing of Fed rate cuts before September, U.S. dollar frenzy slump in fever

Bubblemaps: LIBRA and MELANIA tokens are suspected to be operated by the same cabal

Vitalik will be interviewed on Tako from February 19 to 20, and is now soliciting questions from the community.

Michael Saylor: Will continue to acquire Bitcoin, and will not face risks due to price fluctuations. The opportunity for a hundred billion US dollars lies in Layer3

Argentine President Javier Milei is accused of fraud over LIBRA token scandal

Cantor Fitzgerald bought over $1 billion worth of MSTR stock last year

Jupiter: No participation in LIBRA issuance in any form, no team members were found to have snatched up

Zhao Changpeng: I hope to see more on-chain AI agent development and refuse to sell specific tokens

Greeks.live: Bitcoin continues to fluctuate below $100,000, and the market's wealth-making effect is weak

Nansen analyst: ETH options market tends to be bullish, indicating investors are cautiously optimistic about medium-term appreciation

Jupiter Lianchuang: There is no direct monetary benefit on the $Libra and $Enron projects

Solayer Developer: The money lost in LIBRA is only personal money

KIP: LIBRA token release and market making are entirely under the responsibility of KelsierVentures, and no wallet belongs to KIP

CoinGecko Lianchuang: The crypto market's new token minting volume reached 600,000 in January

Standard Chartered Bank analyst: BTC may rebound this weekend and trigger ETF capital inflows to push it back to $100,000

The first tokenized retail money fund in Asia-Pacific may be launched at the end of the month, and the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission reiterates that it will not set a VATP license limit or target

Bridgewater Fund founder Ray Dalio: Still holding some bitcoins, gold is harder to regulate than BTC and cannot be easily taxed

The team behind LIBRA has cashed out about $107 million

BNB Chain to launch $4.4 million Memecoin liquidity support program

Investment Commission, which oversees Wisconsin Pension Funds, reports holding about $321 million in Bitcoin

Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission hopes to formulate a roadmap for virtual assets development

Argentine President Javier Milei releases MEME currency LIBRA

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