OSL trading moment: BTC has corrected more than 11% from its historical high, analysts believe it is a short-term fluctuation

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

El Salvador continues to accelerate its Bitcoin purchases with ambitious plans despite its agreement with the International Monetary Fund. The news coincides with a proposed Bitcoin Reserve Bill that, if enacted, could end the cryptocurrency market’s 4-year boom-bust cycle.

The average profit for Bitcoin investors has now reached $67,000, and as the cryptocurrency market expands, experts predict that the crypto index will become as market barometer as the S&P 500. However, major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have suffered sharp corrections following the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts.

In this regard, veteran trader Peter Brandt is bullish on the Bitcoin-Gold ratio, believing that the current downturn may be temporary, but analyst Justin Bennett warns that further losses may occur if bulls lose momentum.

At the policy level, Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to authorize the Federal Reserve to purchase and hold Bitcoin, self-proclaimed Bitcoin creator Craig Wright has been sentenced, President Trump has pledged to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, and the German Free Democrats are also pushing to convert digital assets into Integrated into the country’s existing financial framework. Despite the current downward trend in the market, the industry remains optimistic about the maturity of the crypto market in the coming years, with institutional investors purchasing the equivalent of eight years of Bitcoin issuance in 2024.

2. Key data (as of 09:25 HKT on December 20)

• S&P 500: 5,867.08 points (+23.00% during the year)

• Nasdaq: 20,109.06 points (+29.05% during the year)

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.559% (+67.81 basis points during the year)

• US dollar index: 106.593 (+7.05% during the year)

• Bitcoin: $96,983.10 (+129.46% for the year), daily spot trading volume of $97.39 billion

• Ethereum: $3,415.35 (+49.70% for the year), with daily spot trading volume of $59.25 billion

3.ETF flow direction (EST on December 19)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$647.89 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$63.16 million

4. Important dates (Hong Kong time)

Retail sales month-on-month (09:30 pm on December 17)

• Actual: 0.7% / Previous: 0.5% / Expected: 0.5%

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (03:00 am on December 19)

• Actual: 4.5% / Previous: 4.75% / Expected: 4.5%

GDP quarter-on-quarter final value (09:30 pm on December 19)

• Actual: 3.1% / Previous value: 3.00% / Expected: 2.80%

Core PCE price index month-on-month (09:30 pm on December 20)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.3% / Expected: 0.2%

Personal income month-on-month (09:30 pm on December 20)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.6% / Expected: 0.4%

Personal expenditure month-on-month (09:30 pm on December 20)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.4% / Expected: 0.5%

5. Hot news

• Metaplanet issues 5 billion yen in ordinary bonds to accelerate Bitcoin purchases

• The Mt.Gox address has just transferred out nearly 720 BTC, worth approximately US$69.87 million

• Data: The number of active cryptocurrency users in Hong Kong is currently estimated to be only about 100,000

• El Salvador wallet address holds 11 Bitcoins worth $1.07 million

• U.S. SEC approves Hashdex’s launch of Nasdaq Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto Index ETF

• El Salvador officials: Will accelerate the purchase of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and the official Bitcoin wallet Chivo will be sold or discontinued

• A UFD that a trader once purchased for $700 is currently worth over $12.56 million

• US-listed company reAlpha plans to use up to 25% of surplus cash to buy cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin mining company MARA has increased its holdings of 15,574 Bitcoins in the past two months, worth approximately US$1.53 billion.

• Bitcoin mining company Hut 8 increased its holdings of 990 BTC, increasing the value of its total reserves to US$1 billion

• Ceffu deposited 2,025 BTC to Binance, equivalent to approximately $207 million

• Fuel has opened airdrop claims and token staking

• Binance Alpha has announced the third batch of projects

• Bitwise CIO: BTC’s correction is only a short-term fluctuation and does not change the long-term bullish trend of the crypto market

• Binance user survey: 23.89% of respondents believe that AI tokens will dominate market growth in 2025, and 16.1% hold Meme coins

• Kelp DAO releases KERNEL token economics, 55% allocated to community rewards and airdrops

• El Salvador reaches a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the IMF, and Bitcoin payments will become voluntary

• Powell: We are not allowed to own Bitcoin and don’t want the law to change

• Trump family encryption project WLFI announces it is seeking long-term cooperation with Ethena Labs

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