Matrixport Investment Research: BTC breaks through $100,000, and the bullish spread options may be

Since BTC prices exceeded $85,450, the price of BTC has risen by more than 19%. After the altcoins performed poorly and BTC reached a historic turning point in global money supply indicators (often heralding a strong uptrend), BTC rose again to $100,000 on the 8th and successfully broke through.

Technical indicators: BTC returns to 21-week moving average and breaks

through Fibonacci resistance

By April 25, BTC re-established our 21-week moving average - $87,199, providing a reasonable basis for buying call options, especially after BTC broke through the Fibonacci resistance at $87,045 and ETF capital inflows accelerated. Signals such as moving average confirmation, Fibonacci breakthroughs and increased ETF capital inflows together form a solid tactical framework where investors can effectively control risks while capturing the rise of BTC and making profits.

Macro background: expectation of interest rate cuts decline

Over the past 18 months, global monetary policy has greatly changed the flow of capital into digital assets. As interest rates remain high and traditional investors reassess risk allocation, the Fed's communication strategy becomes particularly critical. The minutes of the November FOMC meeting released on December 7, 2024 broke the market's expectations for four rate cuts in 2025, reducing the rate cut forecast to just two.

Market sentiment: BTC's dominance rises, and the counterfeit market lacks

narrative drive

On-chain data reveals the degree of differentiation of the market. BTC's market dominance (measured by its proportion of the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market) rose from 49% in the early ETF era to 64.5% now, a level that has emerged for the first time since the DeFi boom in 2021. The change reflects the highest risk-adjusted returns among all major indicators in digital assets, and the market's risk aversion tendency is obvious.

At the same time, the sentiment of retail investors is still relatively sluggish, with trading volumes at multi-year lows, both centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols. With the lack of a strong narrative drive – no new DeFi disruptive applications, Layer-2 technology breakthroughs or viral memecoin boom – retail investors are still waiting and watching. Since December 2024, discussions on altcoin-related topics on social media have dropped by more than 40%, while discussions on BTC remain high, reflecting the continued interest in BTC as a macro hedge asset.

Summer consolidation is imminent, and in the absence of major catalytic factors, the sentiment-driven upward trend of altcoins is difficult to form. Given that the technical, macro and market structure factors have not been positively driven by altcoins, the capital rate of the altcoin perpetual contract remains low, maintaining long positions in BTC in the form of spot or perpetual futures, and using altcoin perpetual futures as a hedge tool may be a good arbitrage method.

**Disclaimer: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can have great risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided on this content. **