Macro outlook next week: Non-farm, Powell and Trump scramble to snatch the show, and the Federal Reserve's bet on lowering interest rates

PANews reported on March 1 that the dollar held its nearly two-week high after Friday's U.S. inflation data met expectations, and the dispute between Trump and Zelensky also boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Treasury bonds hit the strongest year since the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields close to 4.8% in January now approaching 4.2%, and the two-year Treasury yields fell by 4% intraday, the first time in four months. U.S. stocks almost wiped out the gains in 2025, but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing the decline for the second consecutive week. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday at 22:45, U.S. February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final Value

Monday at 23:00, the US February ISM manufacturing PMI and the US January construction expenditure monthly rate

On Tuesday, 21:50, 2025 FOMC voter and Chairman of the St. Louis Fed Mousalem delivered a speech

On Wednesday at 3:20, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a speech at the Bloomberg Investment Forum

Wednesday 21:15, U.S. ADP employment in February

Wednesday at 22:45, the final value of S&P Global Services PMI in February

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve released a Beige Book on Economic Conditions

Thursday at 20:30, U.S. Challenger Corporate Layouts in February

Thursday 21:30 US to March 1st week

Friday at 21:30, the US Seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, annual hourly wage rate and monthly rate

FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, New York Fed Chairman Williams and Fed Director Bowman participated in a panel discussion on the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Report organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business

U.S. non-farm employment data for February will be released on Friday, which may be a key indicator that affects the direction of U.S. interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly wages are expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5% in January. The January PCE report is the last inflation data Fed officials will receive before their next policy meeting March 18-19. After three consecutive meetings at the end of 2024, the Fed will almost certainly keep interest rates stable for the second consecutive meeting this year.