How will Trump's "sexy operation" affect the future trend of the crypto market by conducting obedience tests?

Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Edited by: TB, ChainCatcher

In April, a series of "tariff dramas" were staged, and Trump again set off a huge wave in the global market.

But this time, he was waving the tariff stick and seemed to be no longer as simple as economic interests. Tariffs seem to have become a means of "obedience test" - Trump is trying to test global economies' tolerance and compliance with US tough policies.

With the blessing of his "slutty operations", the world economy quickly slipped into the abyss of uncertainty: the stock market was full of sorrow, the foreign exchange market fluctuated, the crypto market was dragged down, the Bitcoin trend was roller coaster, and panic and speculative sentiment were intertwined.

In a global game full of uncertainty and temptation, how will the crypto market develop in the future? The next few months may be a real test for the entire crypto market.

The power experiment behind tariffs

This tariff storm is no longer an economic policy adjustment in the traditional sense, but more like a naked behavioral psychological experiment.

"Who will obey? Who dares to resist? Who chooses to remain silent?"

Trump is like a manipulator, by creating uncertainty and carefully laying out variables to observe the reactions of countries around the world. Tariffs are no longer a simple economic tool, but have become his "compliance test" button.

This round of "test" rhythm is compact: first, the group tax increases caused systemic pressure, then the negotiation window was thrown out to attract dialogue, and then the suspension of tariffs in most countries released signals of slowing down, putting extreme pressure on the "rebels".

The following is the timeline of the tariff incident, which also reveals the pace of this "test":

"China has shown a lack of respect for the world market, and I hereby announce the increase of the tariffs imposed by the United States on China to 125%. More than 75 countries have called U.S. representatives for negotiations, which have not retaliated against the United States in any way under my strong suggestion, and I have authorized a 90-day moratorium."

Trump's speech is more like a "phase test report", the simple translation is: "If you are good, I will suspend it for 90 days; if you talk back, I will increase the tax by 125%.

However, it's all far from over. The 90-day "pause period" is more like a buffer for silent observation. No one dares to come to a conclusion on what Trump will do next. What is left to the global market are stronger unknowns and deeper games.

This "obedience experiment" is deeply impacting the market. So, how will the next trend of the crypto market develop?

Bitcoin 's "roller coaster market ****" : Is it a bull

market trap or a starting point for a new era?****

Bitcoin’s price fell below $77,000 for a time in the past week, but after 90 days of Trump’s announcement of suspending reciprocal tariffs for most countries, the price of Bitcoin rebounded quickly to break above $82,000. However, the market has different interpretations and views on the potential impact of this tariff policy.

Viewpoint 1: The rebound of the crypto market may be a "

bull market trap " , so be cautious

Crypto investment institution QCP Capital said Bitcoin’s current rebound could be a “classic bull market trap.” They believe that although Trump's decision to suspend new tariffs has caused Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to rise, China, as an exception, Trump's decision to increase taxes may trigger strong countermeasures from China, which will lead to market overexcitation quickly turning into a bull market trap.

The QCP also pointed out that although short-term policy adjustments temporarily alleviate market anxiety, the market is still at risk. Market manufacturers may take advantage of this rebound opportunity to unload goods, especially in the coming months that may see selling pressure. Therefore, QCP recommends investors to be cautious.

Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of BTSE, also held a similar view: "The market rise is that most trading partners are expected to negotiate a trade agreement with the United States, thus avoiding a full-scale trade war. That being said, continuing to impose tariffs on China and China's countermeasures will lead to a readjustment of global trade, which could revolutionize the way global operations are operated. We are cautious until we see the consequences of this process unfold in the coming months."

Viewpoint 2: Tariff issues will become empty ****, and

the cryptocurrency sector**** may usher in a boom in August - September

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson is optimistic about the future crypto market. He believes that the tariff issue will eventually become empty and the world will realize that countries are willing to start negotiations, and all this is actually a link in the game between the United States and China. He pointed out that some countries will support the United States, while others will support China, and the market will gradually stabilize. People will gradually adapt to this new normal, after which the Fed may cut interest rates, which will eventually flow into the crypto market as a large amount of money flows into the market.

"The crypto market may stagnate over the next three to five months, but by August or September, the market will usher in a huge wave of speculative interest, which could last six to twelve months," he predicted.

****Viewpoint 3: Short-term fluctuations, medium- and long-term may

drive Bitcoin adoption****

Grayscale believes that the short-term performance of global markets will be affected by the White House's trade negotiations with other countries. While these negotiations may lead to lower tariffs, possible setbacks and retaliation actions in the process will still exacerbate market volatility and bring great uncertainty to trade conflicts in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, Grayscale notes that Bitcoin’s price volatility is significantly lower than that of the stock market, and speculative traders in the cryptocurrency market hold lower positions. If macro risks are alleviated in the coming weeks, it believes the crypto market will rebound.

In the medium and long term, Grayscale believes that tariff increases may have a positive impact on Bitcoin, especially when tariffs cause stagflation and weak demand for the dollar. As international trade patterns change, Bitcoin may be adopted more widely, especially as demand for the dollar falls.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, also believes that the increase in tariffs will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, and the inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index means that the depreciation of the US dollar is usually accompanied by an increase in Bitcoin prices. In the long run, weakening of the US dollar may drive Bitcoin and other hard currency into emerging reserve assets.

Find certainty in uncertainty and create order in chaos. Bitcoin has experienced many turmoils since its birth. No matter how Trump's policies change, the crypto market has proved its resilience to take root in uncertainty.

How to interpret the future is still confusing. We can only hold our breath and let time uncover the answer to the ending of this drama.