From 100,000 to 75,000: The truth of the cycle behind the deep callback and the signal of the bull market restart

Original title:Where Are We In The Bitcoin Cycle?

Author: BITCOIN MAGAZINE PRO

Compiled: Tim, PANews

Bitcoin did not see the explosive start that many people expected in early 2025. The price fell sharply after breaking through the $100,000 mark and hitting its peak, which made investors and analysts question: What stage is Bitcoin currently in the halving cycle? In this article, we will penetrate market noise, deeply analyze a series of key on-chain indicators and macroeconomic signals, and judge whether the Bitcoin bull market is still sustainable, or is about to face a deeper pullback?

A healthy pullback or a bull market end?

An ideal entry point is the MVRV-Z indicator. This historic valuation metric measures asset status by comparing the market value to realized value of cryptocurrencies. When the value fell from the peak of 3.36 to around 1.43, it happened to be the time when the price of Bitcoin fell from its high of nearly $100,000 to a temporary low of $75,000. Intuitively speaking, this price pullback of 30% is indeed quite severe.

 Figure 1: Recently, MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from its 2025 low of 1.43 

Historically, the levels corresponding to the current MVRV-Z indicator tend to mark the local bottom rather than the top. In past cycles such as 2017 and 2021, the market has experienced similar pullbacks, and then BTC prices resumed their upward trend. In short, although this wave of decline has shaken investor confidence, it is essentially consistent with the historical corrections in the bull cycle.

Pay attention to smart money trends

Another key indicator is the value day destroyed (VDD) multiple. This indicator is weighted by Bitcoin’s holding time before trading, measuring its on-chain transfer speed. When this multiple soars, it usually means that experienced holders are taking profits; if they are at low levels for a long time, it may indicate that the market is in the accumulation stage.

Currently, the indicator is deeply trapped in a "green area" with a level similar to the stages of the late stage of a bear market or early stages of recovery. As BTC prices have a sharp reversal from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the end of the profit-taking wave, while some long-term accumulation behavior has become increasingly obvious, indicating that participants are making advance arrangements for future price increases.

 Figure 2: Current VDD multiples indicate that long-term holders are in the accumulation stage 

One of the most insightful on-chain indicators is the "Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart", which subdivides the realized capital based on the age of the currency, isolates different groups such as new entrants (holding the currency for less than 1 month), medium-term holders (1-2 years), and other groups to observe the capital migration path. The red band (new entrant) rose sharply near the all-time high of $106,000, indicating that there were a lot of panic buying at the top of the market at that time driven by FOMO sentiment. Since then, the activity of this group has cooled significantly, falling back to a level consistent with the early to medium term of the bull market.

On the contrary, the group holding tokens for 1-2 years (usually accumulators with macro insight) has restarted its share increase. This inverse correlation reveals the core logic of market operation: when long-term coin holders accumulate chips at the bottom, new investors are often experiencing panic selling or choosing to leave. This capital flow model, which increases and decreases, is highly consistent with the "funding-distribution" law presented in the complete bull market cycle from 2020 to 2021, and reproduces typical characteristics in the historical cycle.

 Figure 3: Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart Shows BTC Is Returning to More Experienced Holders 

At what stage are we at now?

From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:

1. Bear market stage: deep pullback (70-90%)
2. Recovery phase: Recovering the previous high
3. Bull market growth stage: breaking through the previous high and then the parabola pulls up

The bear markets in 2015 and 2018 lasted for about 13-14 months respectively. Our latest bear market cycle also lasted 14 months. The market recovery phase in the historical cycle generally takes 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.

 Figure 4: Predicting potential bull market peaks using historical cycle trends 

However, the performance during this bull market is somewhat abnormal. Bitcoin did not immediately surge after breaking through the historical high, but instead showed a pullback. This could mean that the market is building a higher low before entering a steeper upward channel in the exponential growth phase. If we use the average duration of the 9-month and 11-month index stages in the past cycle as a reference, assuming that the bull market can continue, we expect the potential top of this cycle to occur around September 2025.

Macro risk

Despite the encouraging data on the chain, macro downsides remain. Analysis of the S&P 500 index's correlation chart with Bitcoin shows that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the U.S. stock market. As concerns about a potential global recession intensify, continued weakness in traditional markets may affect Bitcoin’s ability to rebound in the near term.

 Figure 5: Relevance of Bitcoin and U.S. Stocks 

in conclusion

As we have seen in our analysis, key chain indicators such as MVRV Z value, destruction of value days and Bitcoin cycle capital flows indicate that the market is showing a healthy development trend that conforms to the law of the cycle and shows signs of continuous accumulation of long-term holders. However, there are still significant macroeconomic uncertainties in the market, which are key risks that need to be closely watched.

This cycle is slower and more volatile than previous cycles, but it does not break the historical structural pattern. Bitcoin seems to be ready to rise again, and may reach a new peak in the third or early fourth quarter if the traditional market does not deteriorate further.