Encryption market in the PVP era: How do retail investors break through?

Original title:State of the Market: pvp and luring liquidity

Original Author: RVM

Original compilation: yuliya, PANEWS

In the digital world of the RuneScape game, one of the most infamous plunder strategies in the "Wilderness" area is "induction". This technology involves the use of the innocence and greedy psychology of unsatisfactory players. Through false security commitments, profit opportunities, or goodwill, they seduce them into the depths of danger -a high -risk player battle (PVP) area.

This mechanism is simple but effective. The induced people will disguise themselves as allies who are happy to help others, provide attractive rewards or help, and carefully build a narrative to establish trust and reduce the vigilance of the victims. Once the victim enters the wilderness area, the illusion will be shattered, and the predators will reveal the true intentions -ambush goals, deprive their items, and let them have nothing.

This ancient strategy that originated from psychological manipulation and opportunism has well demonstrated how social dynamics and trust can be weapons in zero -and -environment to squeeze value from others. This gives us a profound warning: the commitment of security or guarantee of income often covers an asymmetric setting. The design purpose is to make the initiator profit and the participants pay the price.

Market situation

Disable and short narrative of liquidity

• There are too many projects and blockchain: The cryptocurrency ecosystem is rapidly expanding, covering multiple blockchain, agreement and token. This explosive growth has severely dispersed the attention of traders. A large number of new projects and "hot narratives" have emerged, and they are competing for capital inflows. Each project and narrative are trying to obtain share in a limited market, but this competition leads to a fragmented state in the overall market.
• High -speed liquidity rotation: The liquidity in the market is moving from one "hotspot" to another at an unprecedented speed. Once a narrative loses attractiveness, the participants will quickly abandon it and chase the opportunity. This model leads to a short -term surge and rapid decline in prices, forming a "short -lived market", and most traders have failed to achieve profits from it.

Key conclusion: Due to the emergence of a large number of projects and frequent rotation of liquidity, it is difficult for any single narrative to maintain the long -term rise in prices, and traders need to pay more attention to liquidity dynamics.

Overlapping of interests and market sentiment differentiation

Incubic driver opinion leader: In the encryption market, key opinion leaders (KOL) often promote projects according to personal interests. They use social media to guide market emotions and promote the short -term heat of the project. This behavior lacks consistency in the market narrative and further exacerbates the division of market emotions.

Small market signal: The current market emotion is full of contradictions. On the one hand, some macroeconomic indicators seem to indicate the arrival of the "bull market"; on the other hand, retail traders generally lose money, but the market sentiment is extremely pessimistic. The inconsistency of this signal increases market volatility and makes traders more confused.

Key conclusion: The remarks and contradictory signals in the market make the transaction environment more complicated, and traders need to be alert to those seemingly "authoritative" views.

Bitcoin trading and illusory cottage season

Seeing Bitcoin's rise: In this round of markets, traders with the most income benefits are concentrated in the early stages of Bitcoin's rise. Through accurate time points, they seized the chance of rising earlier than retail traders. However, many retail investors were disappointed than the "low return expectations" of Bond, and thus turned funds to cottage and tried to obtain higher returns.

The misjudgment of retail traders: retail traders often avoid Bitcoin, believed that its market value is too high and potentially littering space is limited. They tried to find "the next Bitcoin" and invested funds into those cottage with low market value but huge potential. However, most of this strategy ended in failure, because the expected "Congzhong Season" did not come as scheduled, but many people were caught in a loss.

Key conclusion: Professional traders have received significant returns in the rise of Bitcoin, and retail traders missed the opportunity because they tried to bet on cottage coins.

Solana and Ethereum: Meme token and liquidity trap

• Short -life meme fanatic: The popularity of Meme token is represented by pump.fun. Such platforms have spawned a series of new tokens that rely on hype and virus transmission. These assets lack practical value support, but attracted a lot of retail investors. This phenomenon is essentially a speculative cycle: early participants tried to profit in the inflow of subsequent funds, rather than the long -term development prospects of the project.
• Po -Ponzi game? The survival of MEME tokens depends on continuous attention and increasing liquidity. Market participants generally recognize its speculation -to build positions before buying higher prices, this cognition creates a short -term pull cycle.
• Ethereum, the former king of MEME: Ethereum led the market enthusiasts with NFT during the 2021 bull market, and once again passed the tokens such as $ PEPE and $ MOG in early 2024, income.

However, on the eve of the Trump election, the overall market gradually turned into a sideways, and a large amount of kinetic energy disappeared. As of the middle of 2024, there are few opportunities to make profits. The current MEME traders face two major challenges:

1. The rise of professional market participants: The current MEME tokens with a market value of billions of dollars in transactions are actually compared with professional players and algorithms with leading liquidity.
2. High -entry valuation: The current general valuation of the MEME tokens is too high, and it is difficult to reproduce the index level rising market.

Key conclusions: Solana and Ethereum ecosystems have been filled with a large amount of micro -market value tokens, which further dilutes liquidity. The early stages of easy profitability have passed, and it is replaced by a more risky market environment dominated by professional traders.

Hyperliquid and chasing over -income

• Swallow bonus: Hyperliquid has attracted a large number of active traders and liquidity with its generous airdrop plan and innovative product portfolios. However, the influx of large -scale funds has also promoted reckless speculation.
• Traders' loss status: According to the platform data (such as income charts), most users who conduct short -term transactions on Hyperliquid are losing money, especially when chasing hot spots. Although the platform has development potential, the rotation between frequent rotation between Lost Coins and other high -risk assets has significantly increased the probability of losses.

Key conclusion: Even on the innovation platform, the essence of radical speculation zero -sum game still exists. Traders frequently switch between different tokens to seek excess returns, but these income often evaporates quickly when facing professional competition.

Comprehensive PVP: insider, institution and VC

• Invoasant information advantages: Insiders and institutional investors are often able to deploy in advance, and they have information that ordinary investors cannot obtain. When retail investors follow the price trend and market narrative, they often miss the biggest profit opportunities.
• The rhythm and market influence of the Shanghai currency: "Shang currency market" -that is, the phenomenon of skyrocketing the announcement on the mainstream exchange announcement has further exacerbated the advantages of insiders. People familiar with the matter can accumulate chips in advance, and later parties can only take over at a high level.

Key conclusion: The cryptocurrency market is essentially a high -risk "player battle" (PVP) game. The advantages of large funds players use information asymmetry and the advantages of advance layout to maximize profits at the cost of sacrificing information disadvantages.

Congzhai currency excessive expansion and Trump tokens incident

• The liquidity of the dual tokens: Trump and Melania to the tokens perfectly interpret how the new tokens remove the final liquidity from a tired market. This phenomenon is like a huge "liquidity black hole", devouring the remaining funds in the market.
• Retail investors have become the last connection man: Like most fanatical drivers to issue tokens, insiders have harvested most of their profits, while ordinary traders who enter the market in the later stage are deeply lost in losses, which further exacerbates the market's pessimistic and confidence crisis. Essence

Key conclusion: The market liquidity is exhausted and the continuous issuance of new tokens has exacerbated the losses of ordinary participants, causing the market difficulties of "unattended inventory".

Where does the market go in the future?

• Analysis of rebound potential: Although the market prospects of the cottage coin are dim, the continuous adoption of Bitcoin has maintained the market optimistic. At the price of $ 105,000, Bitcoin maintains a strong upward trend. The good news from the government or major regulators may re -ignite the overall bull market emotion.
• Keeping vigilance in the future: Even if liquidity returns and reproduces market enthusiasm, participants still need to be highly vigilant. The market is still led by professional trading agencies and insiders, and the competitive environment is extremely fierce.
• Shortening the transaction cycle: In the fully competitive PVP market, fast -moving fast -moving out is often safer than relying on long -term trends. In the early days, the era of easily buying a mystery (such as the previous cycle or early 2024) seemed to be temporarily ended.

Key conclusion: If the macro conditions are coordinated and the participants are added, the market may reproduce the positive atmosphere, but caution is still the top priority. Traders should recognize the essence of PVP in the current market and avoid excessive investment in short -term market narratives.

Shenshan Wild-It is recommended to do it carefully

Final thinking

The continuous theme of the encrypted ecosystem today is the decentralization of funds and attention. This dynamic characteristics, coupled with the strong influence of insiders and the fast -changing market narrative, make ordinary retail investors adversely. Although there is still a significant increase in the macro environment of Bitcoin, market participants must respond to any rise in strategic and risky thinking.

Practical suggestions:

• Setting reality expectations-an era of 10 times the income may have been temporarily passed.
• Wise decentralized investment-Do not disperse funds on multiple speculation tokens.
• Maintaining flexibility-shortening the positioning cycle and active profit end to help cope with the PVP environment.
• Pursue quality-focusing on projects with actual value and strong fundamentals, rather than simply chasing hype.

In the end, the era of "everyone win" may end -market games are more cruel, and information asymmetry does exist. But as long as it is highly vigilant and good at discovering real opportunities, smart market participants can still make profits in this "wilderness".