Data analysis: Which Meme coin holder has higher holding belief?

Author: Michael Nadeau, The DeFi Report; Translation: 0xxz@金财经

Before we officially start this article, let’s briefly understand the background.

• Our analytical research shows that meme coins have higher L1 asset attributes (and are more likely to outperform L1).

• We view meme coins as leveraged bets on various themes/narratives and ecosystems.

• We are only interested in meme coins that have reached a certain escape velocity. This removes 99% of the market share - we focus on blue chip meme coins with ample liquidity. (Note: This article was published before TRUMP was released)

By the way, I remember watching an interview with Paul Tudor Jones in 2020. He mainly talked about Bitcoin. He mentioned that Stanley Druckenmiller told him that 80% of Bitcoin holders held Bitcoin prices that fell from $20,000 to $3,000 (after the 2017 cycle). This is interesting data. This gave Paul Tudor Jones the confidence to invest in Bitcoin. We look for similar obvious data when analyzing meme coins and wallet groups.

But please remember that meme coins are very dangerous and unstable.

Please only invest what you are willing to lose, and always do your own research.

Let’s look at the data…

1. Growth of token holders

summary:

• SPX6900 is the only meme coin whose holders of $1,000 are growing faster than its overall holders.

• Note that many assets have fallen in price over the past 30 days, which may skew the data. Fartcoin (up 94%), AI16z (up 81%) and SPX6900 (up 52%) were the top performing assets last month.

• GIGA is an anomaly in the data as its price has been flat over the past 30 days but has still been able to keep growing for its $1,000 size holders.

2. Token holding belief

(1) Average and median positions

summary:

• SPX6900 once again stands out as its median holdings across all Ethereum addresses is 369% higher than Pepe, the meme with the second highest median holdings per wallet. It also has the highest average balance.

• Solana’s SPX6900 tells a different story, as the median holding is only 25% of what we see on Ethereum. This is consistent with the market’s perception of the two networks: Ethereum tends to attract more TVL and higher value transactions than Solana.

• Based Brett on Base L2 is the most “gamified” meme. We are working on what happened, but as we can see from the chart below, there were three large increases in token holders. Insiders appear to be airdropping hundreds of thousands of wallets to promote marketing/community building. This is nothing new, the Bonk team has done this in the past (including airdrops for Solana phone buyers).

Generally speaking, we can see that most meme coin “investors” only operate in the range of a few hundred dollars – potentially investing in multiple projects.

Once again, SPX6900 stands out on Ethereum because its community seems to have more conviction than any other meme.

(2) Investors above USD 1,000

summary:

• Once again, the SPX6900 grabs the attention. 36% of users hold more than $1,000, while the average of other popular memes with more than $1,000 is only 14.2%.

• Pepe stands out among the “big market memes”, with 18% of wallets holding more than $1,000.

• Rounding out the top five are Fartcoin, AI16z and MOG.

(3) Investors above US$100,000

summary:

• SPX6900 once again topped the list, with the highest proportion of wallets above $100,000. Some people think this is bad because it suggests that large holders may be "selling" to retail investors. I think just the opposite. In my opinion, the higher percentage of people holding more than $100,000 indicates that more people have a high level of confidence in this asset. In some ways, the SPX6900 may form a BTC-like attribute in memes.

• Fartcoin and AI16z (both on Solana) show a staggering number of wallets holding positions above $100,000.

(4) Proportion of wallets with less than $100

summary:

• SPX6900 has more wallets on Ethereum with holdings above $1,000 (12,914) and fewer wallets holding less than $100 (9,920). Again, this is an anomaly. By this metric, no other meme comes close. In fact, only 29% of SPX wallets on Ethereum hold less than $100. Pepe ranks second with 43% of wallets under $100.

• For reference: Pepe (the second largest asset in the category) has 7.6 wallets above $1,000 and 179,000 wallets under $100.

• You will see a high concentration of wallets under $100 in the bottom 4 assets. We believe that these meme coins are more centralized, with insiders running marketing campaigns and airdrops - which gives the data in this category this look.

3. Whale growth

Whale wallet 30-day growth rate

summary:

• Fartcoin and AI16z top the charts, which is a bit surprising. Both assets were launched last October and have shown significant growth over the past 30 days. Given that the price has increased by 94% and 81% respectively during this period, the growth of wallets above $100,000 is not unreasonable. But both assets are quite volatile, so it’s very interesting to see that there seems to be a significant number of holders showing high levels of confidence.

• Bonk is down 14% over the past month, but its $100,000 wallet count is down 69%, suggesting many large holders may have taken profits recently. This may put Bonk’s floor price in the range of $0.000026-0.000028.

4. Whale retention rate

Our goal with this indicator is to look at all wallets that have held more than $100,000 in assets over their lifetime. We then compared this number to the number of wallets that still held over $100,000. We believe this metric gives us some insight into the long-term convictions of large holders.

*Please note that our current dataset is missing some large Ethereum memes. We will share the data with you as soon as we have it.

summary:

The SPX6900 exceeds expectations in this regard. 86% of holders who once held more than $100,000 in tokens still maintain at least that level of holdings, even though the token price is currently 34% below its all-time high. It can be said that this is a kind of fanaticism.

5. Insider trading

Our focus here is on identifying tokens with clear “conspiracy” characteristics. To do this, we looked at the total number of wallets that received the tokens in the first week after launch. We then filtered out "internal wallets" based on the condition of "wallets that received tokens but had fewer than 5 previous transactions."

The logic is that a crypto user who received their tokens in the first week and traded less than 5 times is unlikely to not be an internal wallet.

summary:

• Of the 5 assets for which we have data, SPX once again tops the list.

• Pepe had a large number of token recipients (45,000) in the first week, with a high proportion of “insiders”.

• Based Brett owns 55% of internal wallets, which doesn’t surprise us. Of all the memes we analyzed, this token appears to be the most centrally managed.

6. Conclusion

I want to be clear that we are still in the early stages of gathering insights through data. Note that some data may be noisy (note that asset prices may distort some indicators).

We believe we can learn a lot by analyzing wallet groups.

So, what did we learn?

• The SPX6900 ranked first in 6 of the 9 data sets. It ranks second in one dataset. Whale wallet ranks third in terms of 30-day growth rate. This gives it an overall score of 9 points.

• In terms of overall score, the second-ranked asset is the AI16z with 21 points.

• Fartcoin ranks third with a total score of 28 points.

Finally, what I want to say is:

• Note that there are different ways to view and interpret data. You could argue that it’s a bad thing that most holders still hold onto their tokens. You might argue that the percentage of holders of stocks under $100 should be higher. I don’t think so, I think a higher percentage of wallets holding a large number of tokens indicates more confidence. But you can question the way I interpret these data and offer your own opinion.

• Our data is limited to on-chain data and does not include centralized exchange data. WIF, Bonk, Shiba Inu, Pepe, and GIGA are all traded on platforms such as Binance and Coinbase.

• Let’s assume we don’t include the SPX6900 token on Base in the dataset. From what we can tell, there appears to be some airdrop event (perhaps multiple) that skewed the data, so we've removed it. The coin has 72,012 wallets, but only 1,929 wallets have a holding of more than $1,000 (2.6%). The median balance is $0.000001. The real activity with SPX6900 is happening on Ethereum and Solana.

The conclusions we draw do not imply that these assets will outperform in the future. In fact, if BTC underperforms in the coming months, I don't expect any of these assets to do well.

But if you think BTC will perform well in the coming months, it might be wise to form a data-driven view on the blue-chip memes of 2025. These datasets can help you do just that.