Copyright Season or Copyright G? The dilemma of "local bull market"

Author: Wenser

With the frequent positive news on the market policy, the crypto market has finally gradually recovered, and altcoins have also ushered in their "second spring", among which Meme coins performed well: OKX market shows that MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW have 24-hour growth rates as high as 123.09, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84% and 22.64% respectively. This wave of rises with BTC, ETH, and SOL made many diamond hands shout, "It's back, it's all back"; on the other hand, watching their positions that have been retreating greatly, bleeding in their hearts again. Regarding the future market trend, Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the drivers of recent market rises and industry representative views in this article for readers to refer to.

Direct macro positive: China and the United States shake hands and make

peace, the Federal Reserve releases expectations of interest rate cuts

The most direct trigger for the market soaring in recent days is undoubtedly the tariffs and business negotiations between China and the United States. In addition, thanks to Trump's previous series of flirting operations, in the face of the potential possibility of an economic recession, the Federal Reserve no longer maintains its usual tough stance. With the loosening of the tone, the expectation of interest rate cuts this year has suddenly increased. The favorable policy has caused the market to turn to bullish, and the buying power quickly overwhelmed the selling power.

China and the United States "reach substantial progress"

This morning, Beijing time, the White House announced that the United States announced a trade agreement with China in Geneva. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson said the negotiations took place in Geneva, Switzerland, and took two days to make "substantial progress." The two sides were satisfied with the results of the negotiations and believed that the differences were not as big as expected and the agreement was reached at a faster pace. U.S. officials expressed optimism about the deal, believing it would help solve the trade deficit. He Lifeng, the leader of China-US economic and trade, and Vice Premier of the State Council, also said at the press conference that the high-level economic and trade talks between China-US economic and trade were frank, in-depth and constructive, reached important consensus, and made substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism.

After experiencing the previous farce of "154% high tariffs", China and the United States finally sat down again to negotiate calmly and reach a phased consensus, which undoubtedly gave the two countries' economies and cryptocurrency market a reassurance.

Fed's whim is loose, and interest rate cuts are expected this year

On May 8, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that it is appropriate to cut interest rates this year in some cases, and it is not appropriate to lower interest rates in some cases, and I cannot confidently say that I know the right interest rate path. At that time, based on futures prices, the probability of interest rate cuts by July was about 75%.

Meanwhile, Fed Director Kugler previously stated that both inflation and unemployment have an upward risk, and the economy may slow down in the short term; on the other hand, Nick Timiraos, an "Federal Mouth Bottle" analyzed that Fed Chairman Powell downplayed expectations of economic weakness that could be caused by interest rate cuts, which hinted that the Fed would only consider lowering interest rates after seeing evidence of a significant slowdown in economic growth, and may be a rapid rate cut.

Overall, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the second half of this year has increased significantly, thus further repairing the previous oversold market sentiment.

Institutions continue to buy BTC: listed companies become the main force

in coin hoarding, BlackRock is the best

As the most prominent BTC buying group in this cycle, listed companies have become one of the fastest growing groups in the crypto market; asset management institutions and ETF index funds are also in a stage of rapid growth.

Metaplanet increased its holdings of 1,241 BTC today, worth approximately US$182 million

Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings of 1,241 BTC, worth approximately US$182 million. So far, the company holds a total of 6,796 BTC worth approximately US$704 million.

Strategy continues to buy, with annual yield exceeding 14%

Strategy founder Michael Saylor released information about Bitcoin Tracker again last night. According to previous rules, Strategy always discloses information on increasing its holdings of Bitcoin the day after the relevant news is released.

May 5 News Strategy purchased 1,895 Bitcoins (total: $180.3 million) between April 28 and May 4 for $95,167. At the same time, it said that as of 2025, the yield on Bitcoin has reached 14.0%. As of May 4, 2025, it held 555,450 Bitcoin BTC with an average cost of US$68,550 and a total value of US$38.08 billion.

Indian listed company Jetking enters BTC with a target of 18,000 holdings in 2030

Harsh Bharwani, CEO of Indian listed company Jetking, previously stated that the company plans to gradually increase its holdings in BTC through a variety of financing tools, with a goal of achieving a position of 18,000 by 2030. He revealed that the funds raised will be expanded to about 180 BTC in the next six months, with a target of 1,800 BTC in the next year and a final holding plan will be completed by 2030.

BlackRock recently increased its holdings of 5,613 BTC, and the total holdings of Bitcoin have exceeded 620,000

According to Lookonchain monitoring, on May 6, BlackRock increased its holdings of 5,613 BTC, worth US$529.5 million. Currently, the total holdings of Bitcoin have exceeded 620,000, reaching 620,252 BTC, worth US$58.51 billion. Since April 21, BlackRock has bought a total of 47,064 BTC.

According to May 7, BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) still ranks sixth in the U.S. ETF funding list with net inflows of US$6.96 billion, surpassing the world's largest gold ETF (GLD) by US$6.5 billion.

New additions: Futu opens BTC, ETH, USDT coin recharge functions,

traditional financial applications access to the encryption system

In addition to the above cliché buying power, the most eye-catching new variable in the crypto market recently is undoubtedly the "Futu APP, as a traditional financial application, opens the BTC, ETH, and USDT coin recharge functions."

Futu launches BTC, ETH, USDT coin charging functions

Last week, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. announced that it will officially launch Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) coin recharge services. After eligible investors complete the recharge and trading of cryptocurrencies ("Crypto") through the one-stop trading platform Futuniu Niu, they can invest in more asset classes or safely withdraw funds. Investors can play with Crypto+TradFi assets (traditional financial assets, including Hong Kong, US and Japanese stocks, options, ETFs, funds, bonds and other diversified assets) through an App, and quickly convert between virtual and traditional asset markets.

Copyright season or Copyright G? The market is very different and is

still in the stage of oversold repair

As BTC, ETH and SOL experience a slight fluctuation and decline after a recent sharp rise, the enthusiasm of the crypto market for the copycat season has rekindled. Regarding whether the copycat season is about to enter the copycat season, the views of representative figures in the industry are quite different. Some people believe that the altcoins will also rise like the liquidity that attracted the spillover of mainstream currencies such as BTC and ETH in the past, and then usher in an increase; but some analysts believe that the altcoins have fallen by 80% -90% compared with the highs in January this year and before, and their performance in recent days is only a "dead cat jump" rebound.

Bullish: Trader Eugene expects altcoins to rebound strongly

Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted a message saying that although he was correct in his judgment on the direction of the rise, he had a poor actual return due to the early fluctuation and stop loss. Looking ahead to the future market, this rise to $100,000 this time confirmed the previous support reversal of $90,000. Now the market is likely to hit a record high again. This was not originally expected, but funds from micro-strategy and ETFs seem to be in a steady stream.

In contrast, until yesterday, most old players in the currency circle were still waiting (or even shorting). As the expectations of historical highs rekindled the market enthusiasm, the total market value of altcoins is expected to rebound and rise strongly.

Bullish: Analysts call market mainstream short-term traders, copycat season has arrived

Analyst 2 Lambroz believes the peak season for altcoins may have arrived, but he said the market dynamics have changed. "People want to buy, but lack confidence in any strong narrative." He noted that unlike in 2021, there are currently no signs of retail investors entering the market. Traders have faster capital turnover and have little incentive to hold long-term positions. Tech trader Moustache is more optimistic. He shared a chart showing that altcoins repeatedly went through a accumulation phase and then ushered in explosive growth. According to its analysis, the current structure is similar to that in 2016 and 2020. "The 2025 altcoin season has officially begun."

Neutral: CryptoQuant founder said that his previous judgment was wrong and he should pay attention to the incremental funds of institutions

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted a message saying that his judgment on the end of the BTC bull market two months ago was wrong. Current on-chain data shows that BTC selling pressure is eased, and at the same time, large-scale inflow of funds from institutions such as ETFs have driven changes in the market structure. He pointed out that in the past, the Bitcoin market was mainly composed of old whales, miners and retail investors, and the top of the cycle was easier to judge; but now with the participation of ETFs, MicroStrategy, institutions and government entities, the traditional logic of "whale shipment triggers the top" is ineffective. Ki emphasized that in the new environment, we should pay more attention to the inflow of institution incremental funds rather than the old selling pressure signals.

Bearish: Altcoins fall 90%, Golden Age is early

Meanwhile, skeptics still exist. Commentator Rekt Fencer noted that most altcoins have fallen by 90% since December. The slight rebound of 10% this week triggered excessive optimism, prompting him to laugh at the rebound. "This is the golden age of altcoins we have been waiting for."

Summary: The slight rebound of Meme coins does not mean that the copycat

season is coming

According to Coingecko data, BTC's current market share remains at nearly 60%. Overall, it is still difficult for us to say that it has entered the copycat season. On the contrary, the previous "copy G" description is more appropriate. Most of the currencies with good growth are "local bull market".

As Arthur Hayes said in early May, "The question I've been asked the most recently is, when will the copycat season come? And the answer is that sometimes it's right in front of you. HYPE."