Conversation with trader Sa Bi Ge: You made 5,000 times your profit by buying $MOODENG. How to capture Alpha through insider analysis of tokens?

The following text is compiled from the series Twitter Space #dialogue trader, host FC, founding partner of SevenX Ventures, Twitter @FC_0X0

Guest of this issue: Sa Bi Ge, founder of CashCashBot, Twitter @SaBiBro666

Brother Sabi’s trading path: Transformation from exchange to on-chain

strategy

Brother Sabi, a pioneer in the field of on-chain data-driven transactions. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency field in 2017. In 2019, he joined a mainland exchange and worked in its currency listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence (DD). This experience not only gave him a deep understanding of the industry, but also laid a solid foundation for data analysis.

In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. In the early days, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the popularity of the NFT market gradually declined, he keenly observed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, focusing his strategy on on-chain transactions and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed a variety of analytical tools and trading bots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.

Sabige’s trading strategy has distinctive characteristics: it does not focus on narrative valuation, but focuses on on-chain monitoring and strict stop-profit and stop-loss rules. He emphasized that by setting clear stop-profit and stop-loss strategies, trading can get rid of the interference of subjective emotions.

At the same time, he also pointed out that transaction logic needs to be continuously optimized. At first, he focused on the trading behavior of smart money on the chain, and then expanded his focus to team trading behavior (cabal), and then to the behavior of key main addresses of individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continues to improve the accuracy of trading decisions.

Currently, Brother Sabi’s main holdings include BTC, ETH and SOL. These assets form the cornerstone of its core investment portfolio. In addition, the recent outstanding performance of #Mooden has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000x return in a short period of time. But for Brother Sabi, the significance of $MOODENG goes beyond profits.

MOODENG’s real value lies in validating the effectiveness of its data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG’s main address, he confirmed the trading theory of “following the main force”. This practical result not only enhances the credibility of its strategy, but also provides valuable experience support for future trading decisions.

How to use data and discipline to win in trading?

During the transaction process, Sabige emphasized the standardized strategy of "doubling the capital and cutting the loss in half", which is the core of his risk management. This strategy uses clear rules to avoid market sentiment interference and verifies the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.

In trading, you only need to maintain a winning rate of more than 33% to achieve positive EV. For example:

• Take-profit scenario: Sell all assets after doubling to achieve 100% profit.
• Stop loss scenario: sell all the assets after cutting them in half, resulting in a loss of 50%.

Based on the above assumptions, when the winning rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term income will show positive growth. Brother Sabi's strategy is based on probability, and the focus is on stabilizing your mentality and avoiding short-term market fluctuations that may shake your trading decisions.

At the same time, the Sabige team has developed a series of tools with data as the core to provide users with in-depth insights into market hot spots and main behaviors:

Token Insider Analysis (CashCash Bot)

Through big data, the holding structure and address behavior of tokens are analyzed. Its core features include:

• Identification of main behaviors: Screen out addresses with transfer correlation or collective transaction characteristics and classify them as "gang" or "main cluster".
• Snapshot and trend analysis: Qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the concentration of token positions to identify whether the main players are accumulating funds.
• Behavior model optimization: Combine the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or coin mixers) and the trend of capital flow on the chain to form an accurate prediction of the main operation.

FOMO CALL signal

This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on the team’s accumulated database of thousands of smart money addresses. When a group of addresses with excellent historical records appear in the market to collectively buy a certain token in a short period of time, FOMO CALL will send out a signal. This signal can help users quickly capture market hot spots and determine whether the token has potential short-term upside.

These tools provide users with a complete transaction support system. For example, when the currency insider analysis tool shows that the main accumulation level of a certain token has reached a high point, and at the same time the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of multiple smart money, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hot spot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tool, combined with the strategy of doubling the capital and cutting the loss in half.

How to capture the main trends through data and take action?

In the cryptocurrency market, the main players make profits through accumulation and distribution. In this process, the position holding behavior on the chain will inevitably change. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the main behavioral patterns through data. For example, the main force will show specific on-chain behaviors during the accumulation period, and these behaviors can be collected and converted into trading signals.

However, when more people adopt similar strategies, the main force may adjust the strategy or even hide the behavior. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify possible hidden behaviors of the main force. Brother Sabi believes that this is a continuous game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is the key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.

Brother Sabi’s strategy starts from tracking “smart money”. These addresses can usually achieve a winning rate of more than 40% in the market and achieve significant gains. Using tools to filter out these addresses, he and his team established their own DAO and monitoring lists to continuously monitor a group of address clusters with outstanding performance.

The core methods of the strategy include:

• Identifying collective actions: Team monitoring found that certain clusters of addresses operate synchronously, including collective accumulation and distribution behavior. This pattern becomes the basis of strategy.
• Position control: When following the main force, avoid entering the top 100 positions and keep a low profile, so as not to affect the main force's trading rhythm. Generally, buying positions do not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
• Signal response: When the clusters in the monitoring list collectively enter a certain token, the strategy follows up through small-scale trials to avoid premature exposure of its own behavior.

Strategy Example: Mooden’s Trading Process

The successful transaction of MOODENG is an important milestone for the Sabige team. In September 2024, the team monitored that an address cluster with long-term excellent performance entered MOODENG on a large scale and quickly attracted funds. Based on the main force's past trading techniques, the team maintained small buy-ins and followed up step by step.

During the trading process, the main force tested the market's buying and selling sentiment through multiple pull-ups and pullbacks, while ensuring that the concentration of chips was not diluted. By monitoring the changes in the holding ratio of these main addresses in real time, Brother Sabi found that the main players would attract funds again after each pullback. This phenomenon enhances the team’s bullish confidence in MOODENG.

In the end, MOODENG rose from an initial small market capitalization to a market capitalization of hundreds of millions. The team not only gained high profits, but also verified the trading theory of "following the main force" through this process.

How to seize the capital rotation opportunities in the crypto market?

Cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From the perspective of the macro cycle, the focus of funds will be different in different periods:

Mainstream currency rotation: funds may be concentrated in mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH. At this time, the liquidity on the chain is scarce and the transaction volume is small.

Emerging public chains and hotspot switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent transfer from ETH to Base, BSC and then to Solana. Solana has become a hotbed for high-frequency transactions and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low gas fees.

Meme track and narrative changes: In more subdivided tracks, such as Meme tokens, funds will also rotate due to launchpad updates or narrative changes. For example, from Solana’s high-frequency PVP market to new projects on the Base chain, the focus of market funds continues to shift.

Through on-chain data tools such as Dune, the SaBiGe team monitors the transaction volume and capital flow on the chain in real time to assist in decision-making. For example, the recent capital rotation shows that the virtual economy (such as AI Agent, Virtuals) on emerging chains has become a hot spot, which reminds the team to adjust positions in a timely manner and follow capital trends.

Why can calmness and discipline determine success or failure in trading?

Bull markets offer plenty of opportunities, but they also come with high risks. In a market like this, it is especially important to remain calm and disciplined:

Independent judgment: Brother Sabi emphasizes that trading should be centered on verifying strategies rather than catering to market sentiment. He pointed out that emotional fluctuations in bull markets can easily lead traders to be confused by the "eternal bull market" narrative and become overly optimistic.

Take profits at the right time: One of the big traps in the bull market is "reluctance to sell". Even when the market goes up, taking some profit exits is the key to maintaining a long-term advantage. Even if you miss higher points, controlling risks always takes priority over chasing higher returns.

The support of stable cash flow: Cash flow is the reassurance of calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through main business or quantitative funds can reduce dependence on short-term market fluctuations and make transactions more calm.

In a bull market, traders will often face anxiety, which may include: fear of missing opportunities, profits not being as good as expected, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term retracements. In this regard, Brother Sabi also shared his response:

Focus on the trading framework: Transactions outside the framework are not considered successful even if they are profitable. The core of trading is to verify strategies and refine knowledge, not temporary gains.

Establish an environment for calm communication: avoid being disturbed by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.

Keep in mind the cyclical nature of the market: Sa Bige pointed out that the bull market is not "eternal", but a cycle in which opportunities and risks coexist. Even if there is strong bullish sentiment, one needs to be wary of risks, especially when a single narrative emerges in the market with no clear supporting logic.

How to quickly improve your cognitive level?

Brother Sabi believes that the core of personal growth lies in circle upgrading, and communicating with people with high cognition can significantly accelerate one's own cognitive iteration. He emphasized that breaking through the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding people is an important way to improve oneself.

In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he continued to learn from other people's successful experiences and methods to find his own breakthrough point. The impact of communicating with people is subtle. The actions and results of successful people around you can inspire you to think and further optimize your own path. He advocates "socializing upward" and discovering more possibilities by interacting with better people.

He also mentioned that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" was a book that had a profound impact on his financial thinking. This book emphasized the concept of the four quadrants of wealth and taught him to think about wealth management from the perspective of "making money work for you." He mentioned that this book broke the concept of "stable job" in traditional education and inspired him to explore the possibility of entrepreneurship and investment.

In addition to books, his progress was aided by other sources of knowledge. For example:

1. On-chain analysis KOL

• Aunt Ai @ai_9684xtpa: Taking on-chain data analysis as the core, it provides in-depth market insights.
• Mr. Mai @Michael_Liu93: Based on the analysis of market behavior and human nature, we explain the behavioral logic of the main force from another perspective.

2. Social media and community: Quickly capture market trends by following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.

In addition, Brother Sabi believes that the cognitive integration across Web2 and Web3 is an important direction in the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2 and explore how to copy their successful models to Web3. This kind of cross-field thinking allows him to stay ahead of the curve in exploring new tracks.

Summary and suggestions

Data-driven and continuous optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been proven feasible in actual combat, but require continuous dynamic tuning. In addition, whether it is the rotation of hot spots on the chain or the switching of track narratives, one needs to remain sensitive and adaptable.

Patience and discipline: Successful trading not only relies on strategy, but also requires a stable mentality. Regardless of the bull market or the bear market, only by following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment can we gain a long-term advantage.

Establish cognitive and cash flow pillars: With stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more calm attitude. Through "continuous learning" and "circle upgrading", you can always be at the forefront of knowledge.