Circle is listed strongly and has two circuit breakers. What are the beneficiaries behind it?

Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Edited by: TB, ChainCatcher

Seven years of long-distance running, ringing the bell once.

USDC's "compliance narrative" finally waits for its Wall Street certification. Since 2018, Circle has begun to question the door of the capital market, and has experienced bull and bear changes, policy games, and even the failure of SPAC listing.

Now, this long long-term listing race has finally reached its end, opening a new chapter in the stablecoin narrative.

Circle launches

On the first day of listing, Circle (CRCL) performed strongly, opening sharply higher at the opening, triggering circuit breakers twice, and the stock price soared to US$103 per share. Just 40 minutes into the opening, the trading volume exceeded 20 million shares, and the market value jumped to more than US$20 billion.

Circle completed its IPO at $31 per share on the New York Stock Exchange, raising $1.1 billion and valuing it at $6.2 billion. Outstanding performance exceeded the initial expected pricing range ($24-26).

In fact, this listing is more like a concentrated outbreak that has accumulated over twelve years. According to RootData data, since its establishment in 2013, Circle has completed 8 financings, with a total financing amount of US$1.111 billion. The shareholders behind it include Goldman Sachs, Accel, General Catalyst, Fidelity and other front-line institutions. Nowadays, IPO is not only an export of capital cashing, but also an upgrade and confirmation of identity narratives.

Why does Circle accelerate IPO at this time?

As the GENIUS Act stablecoin Act achieved a key procedural breakthrough and the US compliance framework gradually became clear, Circle decisively pressed the acceleration button of IPO. It seems to be "taking advantage of the situation", but it is actually "grabbing the position".

The Trump family crypto project WLFI has issued a stablecoin USD1, and Wyoming is also planning to launch the first state-level stablecoin in the United States in July. Traditional financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have made frequent moves in the layout of stablecoins. Circle has worked hard to manage for many years, and once it encounters the "national team" entry, it may lose its meaning overnight. Listing may not be about increasing the cycle, but about "stamping" for one's own positioning and striving for the final first-mover advantage under the regulatory torrent.

The details disclosed in the prospectus reveal the other side of the IPO: Circle In this IPO, the proportion of shares sold by existing shareholders accounts for as high as 60%, far exceeding the IPO level of typical technology companies. CEO Jeremy Allaire will personally reduce his holdings by 8%, and first-tier investment institutions such as Accel, Fidelity, and General Catalyst also plan to reduce their holdings by about 10%. For many early investors, the current window may be a better "exit opportunity".

Fortunately, the market response was quite enthusiastic. After the IPO announcement, Ark Invest said it would subscribe to $150 million, and BlackRock also plans to take 10% of the total IPO share of Circle IPO. Circle's issuance size increased from 24 million shares to 32 million shares due to strong investor demand, and the final public offering was oversubscribed by more than 25 times.

Who will take off with you?

Circle's successful listing is not only a highlight of its own, but also means that the global stablecoin track has entered a new round of mainstream capital catalysis cycle. Against this background, a group of companies that have been betting on stablecoin ecosystems in the early stages and lay out core technologies and compliance capabilities are ushering in a window of "value revaluation".

So, in this new trend, which assets are most likely to benefit first?

Early shareholders

As early as 2016, Chinese giants such as Baidu, Everbright Holdings, CICC Jiazi, and Yixin bet on Circle as strategic investors, becoming one of its earliest supporters. Now that mainstreaming is accelerating, early shareholders are also refocused. Among them, Everbright Holdings has increased by as much as 38.8% in the past week, and the market is the first to reflect this potential dividend.

Here are the investors of Circle:

In addition, we have compiled some stablecoin-related Hong Kong stock companies:

• ZhongAn Online: Associate ZA Bank is the first local digital bank to provide reserve services for Hong Kong stablecoin issuers.
• OSL Group: Licensed Compliant Exchange, partnering with Ethena to launch stablecoin interest-generating products.
• Standard Chartered Group and PCCW: Working with Animoca to cooperate with the issuance of stablecoins, and have applied for a Hong Kong version of stablecoin license.
• Lianlian Digital: Through Lianlian International’s cross-border stablecoin payment, its subsidiary DFX Labs has obtained a Hong Kong VATP license earlier.

Coinbase, Base

In 2018, Coinbase and Circle jointly launched the CENTRE alliance to jointly launch the USDC stablecoin. Although CENTRE was dissolved in 2023 and Circle became the sole issuer of USDC, Coinbase retained 50% of USDC's revenue and part of its equity, and the relationship between the two remains close.

Therefore, Circle's listing may not only directly benefit Coinbase (COIN) stock price, but its Ethereum layer 2 network Base is also worthy of attention. Base is the Layer 2 blockchain developed by Coinbase. Currently, USDC accounts for as much as 90% of its network.

Related tokens

In addition to the linkage reaction between equity and the industrial chain, some related tokens may also rise simultaneously driven by market sentiment. For example, MKR, as the core token of MakerDAO (now renamed Sky), has a high USDC account for its underlying collateral assets, and Circle's positive news is expected to drive its price increase. Overall, stablecoin track and DeFi leading projects are likely to become beneficiaries of this round of market conditions.

In addition, the following tokens are also worth paying attention to:

• ENA: Popular targets under stablecoin narrative
• ONDO: BlackRock announced a subscription of 10% of the Circle IPO shares, and the U.S. bond token issued by Ondo is based on BlackRock's BUIDL fund as its core underlying asset.
• CRV: Curve is the main place for trading a variety of stablecoins, and USDC is one of the core assets of Curve's liquidity pool.

USDC has a new value scale and Circle has resonated with the capital market.

Circle's IPO is not only a milestone for the "first stablecoin stock", but also opens up a real and visible imagination space for the future of stablecoin.