Bitcoin fell below $100,000 in a short period of time. Is it a farewell to the bull market or a good opportunity to buy the bottom?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Asher ( @Asher 0210_ )

This morning, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points, but suggested that the number of rate cuts in 2025 may be lower than previously expected (lower than the four forecasted in September and lower than the three market expectations before the meeting). Moreover, Powell described this shift as a "new phase" of monetary policy and emphasized that after a 100 basis point rate cut in 2024, interest rates are now significantly closer to a neutral stance. With such a "hawkish" signal, both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market plunged.

• OKX real-time market conditions show that as of 10:50 today (this time point will be taken below), BTC has fallen below $99,000, temporarily trading at $99,600, with a 24 -hour drop of 5.38%, falling below $100,000;

• In addition to BTC, ETH fell below the lowest level of 3,600 US dollars, and is currently at 3,630 US dollars, with a 24 -hour decrease of 6.03 %; SOL fell below the 200 US dollars mark for a short time, and is currently at 203.83 US dollars, with a 24 -hour decrease of 6.94%;

• Other major altcoins also saw significant losses. Among the top 100 currencies by market capitalization, the Meme sector suffered the largest decline. WIF fell below $2.5, a 24- hour drop of 17.6%, and was provisionally reported at $2.24; FLOKI fell below $0.000185, a 24 -hour drop of 17.5%, and was provisionally reported at 0.000184; PEPE fell below $0.000019 , It fell 16.3% in 24 hours and was temporarily reported at $0.0000187;

• In terms of U.S. stocks, as of the close of the day, all three major stock indexes fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially closed down 2.59%, setting a record for the longest single-day losing streak in 50 years (the 10th consecutive trading day of declines); the S&P 500 Index closed down 2.95%. The Nasdaq closed down 3.56%;

Affected by the overall upward trend, the total market value of cryptocurrency has also fallen rapidly. CoinGecko data shows that the current total crypto market value has fallen below US$2.6 trillion, down 8% in 24 hours. Crypto users’ trading enthusiasm has also declined. Today’s Alternative Panic and Greed Index is at 75, with the level changing from extreme greed to greed.

In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that the entire network has liquidated positions of US$853 million in the past 24 hours, including US$752 million of long positions and US$101 million of short positions. From the perspective of currencies, BTC liquidated positions of US$157 million and ETH liquidated US$135 million.

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time this week, altcoins were "bloody" and, when asked about Bitcoin reserves, Powell said he was "not allowed to own Bitcoin at this time and has no desire to change the law." , is the policy bull market coming to an end, or are there other variables before Trump officially takes office?

Below, Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the institutions’ views and arguments on the market outlook.

What will be the next trend of Bitcoin?

FalconX: Interest rate cut predictions may not affect the crypto market

in the long term, Bitcoin’s correlation with major stock indexes has declined

David Lawant, head of research at cryptocurrency prime broker FalconX, said, “While rate cut predictions are currently affecting prices, they may not have a long-term impact as Bitcoin’s correlation with major stock indexes has declined. Expected to be in 2025 The slowdown in annual interest rate cuts is not entirely surprising, but it has put some pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. While macro factors have traditionally influenced cryptocurrency price movements, industry-specific factors may do so in the coming years. Dominant in the weeks and months, especially as markets anticipate policy changes from the new administration.”

**Santiment: Compared to the S &P 500, Bitcoin declines are not as large

as normal fluctuations**

Analysts at blockchain analysis platform Santiment said, “Despite the disappointing short-term price reaction of BTC, the correlation between Bitcoin and many altcoins and the stock market has weakened slightly this month. During the bull market, when cryptocurrencies are correlated with stocks Cryptocurrencies thrive when there is little or no correlation, considering BTC is holding above $100,000 for the time being and the declines are not as large as normal compared to the S&P 500, so once the next 24 to 48 The dust settled within the hour, which could actually be interpreted as a strong signal.

Grayscale Research: Sovereign wealth funds in Asia and the Middle East

are the more likely next driving force

Zach Pandl, director of research at Grayscale, said: Bitcoin prices plummeted after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech, indicating that investors may be too focused on the theoretical possibility of Bitcoin’s strategic reserve. Grayscale Research expects more nation-states to adopt Bitcoin, but the next step is more likely to be sovereign wealth funds in Asia or the Middle East, which already manage highly diversified asset pools.

**Bitwise: Tighter liquidity and a stronger US dollar are the biggest

risks facing BTC**

Andre Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, believes: “The biggest trouble for the Fed right now is that despite the Fed’s interest rate cuts, financial conditions are still tightening. Since September Since last month, long-term bond yields and mortgage rates have been rising, and the dollar has appreciated, which also means that financial conditions have tightened. The continued appreciation of the dollar also poses macro risks to Bitcoin, because the appreciation of the dollar is also related to the contraction of the global money supply. , which tends to be detrimental to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, the Fed’s continued reduction in net liquidity, in my opinion, tighter liquidity and a stronger US dollar are also the biggest risks to BTC... On the other hand, BTC’s on-chain. Factors continue to be very favorable, especially the continued decline in exchange balances, which supports BTC The supply gap continues to grow."

**Split Capital founder: The Fed’s dovish stance is expected to weaken

in 2025**

Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of crypto fund Split Capital, said: “Global markets expect the Fed’s dovish stance to be somewhat weakened in 2025. Therefore, crypto event traders and market makers are reducing risks.” Fed officials lowered their benchmark for the third consecutive time on Wednesday interest rates, but controlled for the number of rate cuts expected in 2025. Lower interest rates generally increase demand for most riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

summary

This morning, after the Federal Reserve released a "hawkish" signal, the market's expectations for Bitcoin began to diverge, especially as the general bullish sentiment before breaking through the $100,000 mark has weakened. Currently, optimists believe that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional stock markets has dropped significantly, and Trump has repeatedly mentioned the establishment of strategic Bitcoin reserves, which still provides support for Bitcoin’s future prospects.

However, changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and tightening liquidity, may put some pressure on the price of Bitcoin in the short term.