B3 tokens 4 times in 3 days: retail investors' carnival or capital harvest again?

Author: Alvis, MarsBit

Opening Theory: The Magical Reality of B3 Tokens

The B3 token we are going to talk about today is the most magical script in the crypto circle in 2025 - a "Divine Coin that was traded by a former Coinbase employee, known as "Tesla in the game world", and has soared by 249% in three days of launch. ”, now harvesting global leeks as the "Base Chain Leader".

Let’s throw a few numbers first:

- B3's current price is US$0.014, from its low of US$0.04 when it was launched on February 10, to its high of 0.02 yuan on February 12, which has risen by 400% in three days, which is faster than the price increase of pancakes downstairs in your house Still fast;

- The total supply is 100 billion pieces, and the team + investors directly took 43.3%, which is equivalent to 4 of them being put into the banker's pocket for every 10 coins issued;

- 900 million were released on the first day of the launch, and the dealer's control level is comparable to the behind-the-scenes boss in "Squid Game".

Even the screenwriter of "Wolf of Wall Street" has to call him an expert after watching this magical plot. Today, Marsbit will take you to use "physical plug-ins" to disassemble the valuation logic of B3 to see if this thing is "new infrastructure for the game revolution" or "leek meat grinder 3.0".

B3's "Three Character Design" - Quantum Entanglement between Technology,

Capital and Leeks

Technical Character: "Game Highway" on the Base Chain

B3 officially claims that it is a "Layer3 game dedicated chain on Base". In plain words, it is to build another floor on the Coinbase son Base chain (Layer2), and provide "private room services" for game developers. There are two technical advantages of this thing:

- Gas fees are ridiculously low: the cost per transaction is $0.001, which is cheaper than buying a bottle of water at a convenience store;

- TPS is so high: the theoretical peak is 9000+, and it actually runs faster than Solana.

But there is a black humor here: the technical base of B3 is entirely supported by the Base chain, and the Base chain is supported by Ethereum's security base.

In other words, B3 is like a "three landlord" - Ethereum is the landlord, Base chain is the second landlord, and B3 is the three landlord who transforms the basement into a capsule hotel. Once Ethereum is in traffic jam (such as during the NFT boom), B3's speed advantage will immediately become stoopy speed.

Capital personality: former Coinbase Group's "Reemployment Plan"

The core team of B3 is all Coinbase former employees: CEO Daryl Xu has been doing business development for 4 years, CTO Sean Geng is a Coinbase engineer, and even the financing is the Coinbase Ecological Fund personally. This background is like writing "Former Alibaba P9" on your resume - an investor climaxed at a glance and directly smashed the seed round of $21 million.

But the question is: If these people are really awesome, why don’t they continue to get promoted and raise salaries in Coinbase, but instead come out to build a game chain? The answer may be hidden in the token allocation - the team + consultant gets 23.3%, and the investors get 20%, which adds up to 43.3%. According to the current price, the market value after unlocking will be at least US$400 million. This is not a entrepreneurship, it is clearly a "Guidelines for cashing out when employees of former large factories leave their jobs."

Lilac character: "Double Helix Harvester" for airdrop + game

B3 The most sensual operation is "airdrop economics":

- The first wave of airdrops: According to Dune data, 9.9 billion airdrops have been issued, and players redeem them by "playing games to earn points", and the points rules are so complicated that they are comparable to college entrance examination math questions;

- Second wave of airdrops: Promising that there will be "tournaments" and "gamified mining" in the future, but the specific rules? Sorry, the dealer has the final say.

This routine is essentially "using token subsidies to exchange user data" -you think you are making money, but in fact you are sold to game developers as data packets. What's even more amazing is that B3 also has a "pled mining", with an annualized 35% return, which looks attractive, but if the currency price drops by 35%, the principal will be cut in half. This is not financial management, it is simply "Russian roulette".

Valuation Model Disassembly—Fantasy Drift from Science to Metaphysics

1. Relative valuation method: Compared with Axie and Sandbox, how much

is B3 worth?

Let's look at our peers first:

- Axie Infinity (AXS): The market value at its peak was US$28 billion, daily active users were 2.7 million, and a single user valuation was US$10,000;

- The Sandbox (SAND): The peak market value is US$20 billion, daily active users are RMB500,000, and a single user valuation of US$40,000;

- B3: Daily active users claim to be 6 million (actually, water may be injected), and based on the valuation of a single user of US$10,000, the market value should be 60 billion? But the reality is that the market value of B3 is only US$260 million and the FDV is US$1.4 billion, not even a fraction of it.

There is a shocking loophole here: 90% of B3's 6 million users are airdropped wool parties, and real players may have less than 600,000. According to this data, the reasonable valuation of B3 should be 600,000 users × 10,000 US dollars = 6 billion US dollars, 30 times higher than the current market value. But the problem is - once these users receive the airdrop, they immediately withdraw the coins and run away, leaving you with a bunch of zombie accounts.

2. DCF model: future cash flow? No, the ability to draw cakes in the

future!

It is worth looking at the cash flow seriously, but where is the cash flow of B3? The official white paper lists a bunch of scenarios:

- In-game transaction commission: Each transaction is charged 0.5%, but now 80% of the game is free to try. Does it pump air?

- Pledge income: 35% annualized, but this is to pay interest to old leeks with the money of new leeks, a typical Ponzi structure;

- Advertising income: The unit price of chain game advertising is less than 1/10 of that of Web2, and the money you earn is not enough to pay the server electricity bill.

So the true valuation model of B3 should be:

Market value = Team background × Airdrop popularity × Leek FOMO coefficient ÷ Regulatory risk

Translated into human words: former Coinbase team + Crazy Airdrop + Leek Takeover – SEC Raid Check = Current Price.

3. On-chain data metaphysics: Love triangle between giant whales,

retail investors and dog shops

Check out the on-chain data of B3:

- The top 10 addresses deduct the tokens held by the exchange, totaling 72%: the dealer is a good deal, and the price rise and fall depends on the mood of the boss;

- Net inflow of 12,000 coins on the exchange: When the price rises, there are still people who are desperately recharged, either retail investors are chasing highs or bankers are fishing;

- Contract fund rate -0.12%: The short sellers are betting on plunge, but the price is forced to rise, which is obviously a dog dealer who is pushing short.

In this data environment, technical analysis is not as reliable as rolling dice.

Risks and Traps - Secrets that dealers won't tell you

1. Token unlock: The sword of Damocles hanging overhead

The biggest thunder of B3 tokens is that "the team and investors lock 25% of their positions in the first year, and unlock them in 48 months later." What is this concept? Suppose the current price is 0.1 yuan, if it falls to 0.01 yuan when unlocked in 1 year, the dealer will still make 10 times (after all, the cost may be less than 0.001 yuan). Retail investors are fighting in the secondary market, and the dealer counts money at home and has cramps in his hands.

2. Regulatory nuclear bomb: SEC's "Securities Certification" sniper gun

The B3 team is all from the United States, and the tokens are on the Coinbase son Base chain, which is simply a living target for the SEC. Once identified as a securities:

- The exchange collectively removed from the shelves: referring to the XRP case, the price was cut directly;

- The team faces class action lawsuit: fines can reach hundreds of millions of dollars.

3. Ecological bubble: 80 games, 80 thunders?

B3 claims to have 80 games online, but if you look closely:

- 70% are skin-changing mini-games: such as "tetris on chain" and "blockchain mine-sweeping";

- 20% is taking advantage of AI hot topics: for example, the Zerebro AI game has an actual experience that is more mentally retarded than Siri;

- The remaining 10% has not been developed yet: the official screenshots are all from PS.

This ecology is like the "food street" at your doorstep - looking at the dazzling array of signs, you can see Lanzhou ramen and Shaxian snacks when you enter.

Ultimate Soul Questioning – Can I buy it now?

1. Short-term gamblers:

- Strategy: Take out no more than 5% of the position, set a stop loss line (such as falling below 0.08 yuan to cut the loss), and the bet dealer pulls the market to 0.2 yuan;

- Risk: It may become the fuel for the "pig killing plate" and is buried on the top of the mountain.

2. Long-term believers:

- Strategy: Monthly fixed investment, ignore fluctuations, bet on B3 to become the "chain game version of Steam";

- Risk: There is a high probability that the token will be unlocked and the principal will shrink by 90%.

3. Rational investors:

- Strategy: Watch and eat melons, wait until the token unlock period is over before buying the bottom;

- Risk: You may miss a short-term surge, but keep the principal safe.

Conclusion: The law of survival in the encrypted world

The story of B3 tokens is essentially a trio of "technical vision + capital operation + human greed". Its price surge is neither a miracle nor a scam, but a reflection of the inherent laws of the crypto market: before consensus is formed, all value is a bubble; after consensus is burst, all bubbles are tears.

Finally, I would like to give you an encrypted motto: "Everyone is a stock god in a bull market, and every one is a philosopher in a bear market." Cherish life and speculate on coins rationally.