Trading moment: China's "double decline", Bitcoin fluctuations, and the Fed's interest rate decision, who is controlling the global financial rhythm?

1. Market Observation

Keywords: LLJEFFY, ETH, BTC

As China announced a reduction in reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts and confirmed economic and trade talks with the United States, market risk appetite has rebounded significantly. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced this morning that it would lower the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, while lowering the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage point to 1.4%, and lowering the housing provident fund interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. This decision was boosted by the news that the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng would hold economic and trade talks with US Treasury Secretary Becent during his visit to Switzerland from May 9 to 12. The market sentiment was boosted. Asian stock markets generally rose, and futures prices such as iron ore and steel rose. Meanwhile, global markets are focusing on the Fed's interest rate decision to be announced at 2 a.m. tomorrow. According to CME's "Feder Observation" data, despite Trump's continued pressure to demand a rate cut, the market expects that the probability of the Fed's interest rate unchanged in May is as high as 96.9%, and the possibility of a rate cut is only 3.1%. Goldman Sachs analyst Jan Hatzius pointed out that the Fed has set a higher threshold for interest rate cuts, and policy makers need to see more convincing evidence of economic slowdown before they can act, especially hard data on significantly weakening of the job market, such as rising unemployment rates and weak wage growth.

At the same time, Bitcoin has made a breakthrough in policy levels. New Hampshire officially signed the HB 302 Act, becoming the first state in the United States to pass the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" legislation, authorizing state fiscal officials to purchase Bitcoin or digital assets with a market value of more than $500 billion, with a holding cap of 5% of the total reserve funds. On the UK, although the Finance Minister of Finance and Economics Secretary Emma Reynolds made it clear that the UK will not follow the example of the United States to establish national cryptocurrency reserves, it tends to include crypto assets in the existing financial regulatory framework and follow the principle of "same risks, same regulation".

Bitcoin has been fluctuating for two weeks. Glassnode analyzed that Bitcoin price may face significant selling pressure when it approaches $99,000. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich further pointed out that the current key support level of BTC is $92,500 and $89,000, and the market has returned to the key resistance zone between December and February. If it falls below $90,000, it will have a significant impact on the technical and psychological level and may fall below the 200-day moving average. In a recent interview, Binance founder CZ predicted that Bitcoin's current cycle may be between 500,000 and 1 million US dollars, and is optimistic about the combination of blockchain and AI, scientific research and other fields. In addition, Futu Securities announced new progress, and the official website shows that ordinary users can now recharge BTC and ETH to Futu accounts through their personal wallets, with the minimum recharge amounts of 0.0002 BTC and 0.001 ETH respectively. This measure will further promote the integration of traditional finance and crypto assets.

The MEME market has caused a lot of controversy over the past two days due to the death of Zerebro Jeffy Yu. The market value of its related token LLJEFFY once rose to US$31 million and has now been pulled back to US$5.7 million. Starting from 1:48 noon on May 4, LLJEFFY developed the wallet and multiple related addresses began to frequently trade and destroy tokens. It was confirmed today that Jeffy Yu had forged his death. As the truth was revealed, this incident that disturbed the market may come to an end.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on May 7)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $96,523.49 (+3.21% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $29.36 billion

• Ethereum: $1,827.47 (Year-Date--45.11%), daily spot trading volume is $13.78 billion

• Corruption Index: 67 (Greed)

• Average GAS: BTC 1 sat/vB, ETH 0.44 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 64.2%, ETH 7.4%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: LAYER, XRP, BTC, MOVE, LOOM

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0517

• Sector rise and fall: NFT sector fell 2.96%, GameFi sector fell 2.83%

• 24-hour liquidation data: 1135,385 people worldwide were exposed, with a total liquidation amount of US$314 million, with a BTC liquidation of US$98.26 million, ETH liquidation of US$67.67 million, and SOL liquidation of US$10.31 million

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper line ($95261.41), lower line ($93375.05)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line ($1811.27), lower line ($1775.40)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- and long-term bullish trend, and vice versa is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly in the range or in the short term, it is a bottom or top state.

3.ETF flow direction (as of May 6)

• Bitcoin ETF: -85.63 million USD

• Ethereum ETF: -$17.87 million

4. Looking forward today

• Binance Alpha will open Obol Collective (OBOL) trading on May 7

• Ethereum will undergo a Pectra upgrade at 18:05 on May 7

• Binance Alpha will be launched on Space and Time (SXT) on May 8

• Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on May 7, worth approximately US$20.4 million

• Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock 1.45 million tokens on May 8, worth approximately US$26.2 million

US Federal Reserve interest rate decision from May 7 (upper limit) (May 8 2:00)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 4.5% / Expected: 4.5%

UK Bank interest rate decision from May 8 (19:00 on May 8)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 4.5% / Expected: 4.25%

The number of people who requested initial unemployment benefits in the United States to May 3 (10,000) (20:30 on May 8)

• Actual: To be announced/Previous value: 24.1/Expected: 23.1

The biggest increase in the top 500 market value today: KAITO rose 31.81%, BAN rose 21.75%, SYRUP rose 15.93%, REX rose 13.63%, and SHFL rose 12.34%.

5. Hot News

• Futu Crypto supports BTC and ETH recharge, USDT is only for professional investors

• U.S. Senators propose MEME bill, intending to prohibit the president and members of Congress from issuing Meme coins

• Zerebro project founder admits to forged death and exit, and the crypto circle has first appeared in "false death and exit" incident

• Trump's family project WLFI transfers over $4.5 million in assets to unknown wallet

• New Hampshire becomes the first state in the United States to pass the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" legislation

• Doodles announces $DOOD will go online to Solana and launch 13% airdrop program

• China's People's Bank of China announces interest rate cuts

• sns.sol announced SNS token economics: airdrop accounts for 40%

• Listed company KULR Technology increased its holdings by 42 Bitcoins, and its total holdings increased to 716.2

• The listed company DeFi Development increased its holdings of 82,404 SOLs, with a total holding of more than 400,000

• Standard Chartered Bank: BNB price may reach US$2,775 by the end of 2028

• Conflux will destroy 76 million CFX and pledge 500 million CFX

• Listed company SOL Strategies announces the purchase of 122,524 SOL

• Haedal launches a repurchase program designed to use the agreement proceeds directly to reward veHAEDAL stakeholders

• British Finance Minister of Finance: Will not follow the example of the United States to establish national cryptocurrency reserves

• Binance will list Maple Finance (SYRUP) and Kamino Finance (KMNO) and add seed tags to them

• Two new wallets extracted 83,000 SOLs from Kraken and used for staking, worth $11.97 million

• Financial Times: Traders buy before Trump's Melania token MELANIA goes public, making $100 million

• The creator of Meme Coin TRUMP has earned over $320 million in handling fees so far

• CZ: BTC may reach US$500,000 to US$1 million this cycle, and it is more optimistic about the combination of blockchain and AI, scientific research and other fields than Meme Co., Ltd.

• Florida Strategic Bitcoin Reserves Act Withdraws from State Crypto Legislative Competition