WOO X Research: The largest pyramid scheme coin PI is about to be launched, what is the valuation?

Written by: WOO

Pi Network is a new digital cryptocurrency that focuses on low-threshold participation with mobile devices as a platform. Unlike traditional Bitcoins that require a lot of power and professional equipment to mine, Pi Network allows users to "mine" through mobile applications, greatly reducing technical and cost barriers, allowing more general public to participate. Cryptocurrency ecosystem.

At first glance, it seems to be a normal "currency circle" project, but it is not. Pi Network was founded in 2019, but it has not been launched on the main network for a long time. Mobile mining is still in the state of "earning air". In terms of token acquisition mechanism, a higher proportion is to recommend friends to use the registration code. To increase your mining share, this model is more like a pyramid scheme to mine than to use consensus mechanisms such as PoW and PoS that use blockchain technology.

However, after six years of departure, Pi Network finally announced that it will be launched on the main network and token trading is launched on multiple exchanges. It seems that Pi is playing the real thing this time, so how should we value Pi coins?

Total supply and circulation of Pi coins

Pi Network has not yet made it clear that the final total supply limit of Pi coins is available, but according to community and white paper information, it is generally believed that the maximum supply of Pi coins is about 100 billion. This means that if each Pi coin is worth USD 1, the fully diluted market value (FDV) will reach USD 100 billion. As of the end of 2024, Pi is still in the closed period of the main network and has not yet fully opened for transactions, so the actual circulation supply is limited. According to blockchain browser data:

• August 2023: About 1.97 billion Pis were moved to the main network (of which 1.29 billion were locked by users)
• September 2024: The cumulative migration supply of the main network increased to about 4.07 billion (locked to 1.35 billion), and the supply volume surged by 106.6% in more than a year.
• January 2025: The main network has accumulated 5.56 billion migrations, of which about 660 million are still locked. Supply volume increased by 36.6% in just three months

In terms of total supply, the Pi white paper mentioned: When opening the main network, users may have dug up 10 to 20 billion PIs in total. In other words, the actual circulating supply in the early stage may only be a small part of the total volume, and most of the Pi coins will be gradually produced by mining over time. This also means that supply is controlled in the short term and the long-term potential inflation pressure is huge.

Market demand and potential user data

Since launching the mobile mining application in 2019, Pi Network has claimed to have attracted the attention and participation of tens of millions of users around the world. In terms of user base: According to the Pi team, there are more than 60 million registered users worldwide. It is worth noting, however, that only a portion of the real users who have completed KYC verification are. In 2023, Pi officials said that about 12 million people passed the KYC verification. Even by the beginning of 2025, the total number of mainnet wallets displayed by on-chain data was only about 9.11 million, accounting for only 15% of the claimed users.

This means that although the number of registered users is huge, the proportion of users who are truly active and have completed migration and going to the chain is limited.

In addition, daily active usage can also reflect actual needs. According to data from the third-party blockchain browser ExplorePi, the average daily active wallets on the Pi main network are about 20,000, and the peak reached about 42,000 in January 2025. Compared with the tens of millions of users officially claimed by Pi Network, this activity is relatively low.

Valuation model and possible price ranges

Based on the above information, we can try to establish valuation models of several Pi coins to calculate their price range. Common cryptocurrency valuation ideas include "market value" and "OTC price"

Market value:

When it is known that the total amount of tokens is 100 billion and the circulation is estimated to be 10 billion:

• Benchmark Dogecoin: The user community-driven characteristics of the two are similar. If Pi can copy DOGE's success, the current market value of DOGE is based on DOGE's current US$40 billion market value, and the value of Pi tokens can reach US$4
• Market value falls in 50: The current market value of 50 is POL, with a market value of US$2.7 billion. If Pi can enter the top 50 market value mark at the opening, the token price will fall in 0.27 USD
• Market value falls in 100: The current market value of 50 is XTZ, with a market value of US$920 million. If Pi can open and advance to the top 100 market value mark, the value of Pi tokens can reach US$0.092

OTC: OTC (OTC) has always been the main way for Pi coin enthusiasts to exchange. In the absence of an open market, price differences occurred in different regions:

• In mainland China and some Southeast Asia, there were early rumors that the price of privately collected Pi coins was about the level of several RMB. Taiwan Market As mentioned earlier, the OTC acquisition price is between about USD 0.23 and USD 0.85.
• In some foreign communities, some people are willing to trade a small amount of Pi privately at a valuation of $5-10, and more to bet on the appreciation space after future listing. However, such private transactions are full of fraud risks and are limited in quantity and cannot be regarded as mainstream quotes
• Some merchants and users privately agree to accept Pi coins to exchange goods or services to layout the Pi ecosystem in advance. This can be regarded as an implicit quotation in off-site applications, and each Pi is converted to 1 to 3 US dollars, but this is even more Most of the considerations of merchants marketing or supporting Pi community may not necessarily mean that they are willing to acquire Pi coins at this price unlimited.

The market valuation of Pi coins will depend on two major factors: supply and demand game and confidence consensus:

• Supply Perspective: In the early stage, limited circulation may push up the price of Pi coins, but in the long run, the huge total supply (100 billion pieces) is a sword of Damocles. If the application ecosystem cannot expand and absorb these supplies simultaneously, prices will eventually face downward pressure. Therefore, Pi project parties may need to take measures such as controlling the inflation rhythm and increasing application demand to maintain the currency value in the future.
• Demand Perspective: Hundreds of thousands or even millions of active coin holders will be the cornerstone of the value of Pi coins. After the exchange is launched, the behavior of this group of users (whether to hold and wait and see, or sell and cash out) will directly affect the market value trend. If most people choose to continue to hold Pi and regard Pi as a long-term asset, and with external funds optimistic about inflows, the market value of Pi is expected to move towards the magnitude of 10 billion US dollars, making the price stand at a medium-to-high range of $1-$3. On the contrary, if the sell-off wave occurs when it goes online, and the supply is oversupply, the market value may only stop at the level of one billion US dollars or even below, and the price will fall below $1.
• Market positioning: If Pi Network can prove that it does not rely solely on pyramid scheme growth, but is truly based on regional blockchain technology and applications, then the market may give it a higher valuation multiple (similar to XRP and BNB). Otherwise, if negative arguments (pyramid schemes, no blockchain support, etc.) are confirmed, Pi coins may not escape the fate of shrinking value.

The valuation of Pi coins is chaotic, but what is certain is that the short-term fluctuations will be very severe. We recommend paying attention to the following indicators to analyze the valuation trend of Pi currency

• Trading volume and turnover rate in the first week of online launch (reflecting market popularity)
• Mainnet unlocking progress (supply release rhythm)
• Pi ecological application implementation (determines long-term demand)

The most important thing is the overall crypto market trend. In the bull market atmosphere, with abundant speculative funds, Pi coins are prone to obtain higher valuations; on the contrary, in a bear market, no matter how good the subject matter is, it cannot escape the decline, and the recent lack of liquidity in the market has also made the valuation situation less optimistic than before.

However, it is difficult to calculate the madness of human nature in valuation calculations. What Pi Network praises is their community cohesion.

It has no practical application and can "become a circle" relying on word of mouth communication, which is quite similar to the composition of meme coins. The reason why Pi Network has such a powerful community is that it sets up an invitation mechanism and builds an upper and lower-level structure, so that inviters can gain benefits by attracting newcomers (such as improving their mining speed).

This kind of interest structure and dream Pi Network have been bound for six years. Both its projects and communities can remain stable. Its survival time has been longer than 95% of the currency circle projects, and most community members have become firm. Those who believe in it even threaten to not sell a single coin after it is launched on the main website, but instead want to buy more Pi coins. With low initial circulation and community loyalty, it is difficult to estimate at the emotional level what level Pi, which has been operating for six years, can bring its market value to. But it can be foreseeable that when the token is launched, it will definitely usher in huge fluctuations.