With Trump coming to power soon, how do various institutions and KOLs view the trend of Bitcoin?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily

Author｜Wenser

At the beginning of the new year of 2025, the market seems to have started a gradual price recovery amidst the shock and decline.

At around 10:00 this morning, the price of BTC once rose to exceed US$99,000 and is currently around US$98,800; ETH has rebounded from around US$3,300 on January 1 to above 3,600; SOL has also gradually recovered from around US$180 on January 1. to above $210. As the date of Trump's inauguration as President of the United States approaches, market sentiment is gradually recovering. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent market views in this article for readers’ reference.

Buying continues: buying funds at the national level, institutional

level, and company level have existed for a long time

The recovery in prices is naturally inseparable from the influx of buying. After experiencing the "Christmas shock", the New Year's buying power now seems to still exist for a long time and is getting stronger.

**Data: The cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF has reached

US$35.909 billion.**

According to SoSoValue data, as of January 3, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was US$111.46 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value to the total market value of Bitcoin) reached 5.72%, and the historical cumulative net inflow reached US$35.91 billion; Ether The total net asset value of spot ETFs is US$13.03 billion, and the ETF The net asset ratio (the ratio of market value to the total market value of Ethereum) is 3%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached US$2.64 billion.

 BTC spot ETF data 

 ETH spot ETF data

In addition, institutional reports also show confidence in the continued net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs in 2025.

**Steno Research: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are expected to see net

inflows of US$48 billion and US$28.5 billion respectively in 2025; BTC rises to a minimum of US$150,000**

In a report released recently, Steno Research stated that its bullish forecast for BTC and ETH prices reflects “the unprecedentedly favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic environment marked by falling interest rates and improving liquidity, and the decline in Bitcoin prices. A historically strong performance in the second half."

It also said, “On top of this, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, with large inflows into U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs further driving this trend.”

Steno expects BTC and ETH ETFs to see net inflows of $48 billion and $28.5 billion respectively in 2025. In addition, the report states that DApp TVL is expected to exceed US$300 billion by 2025, far exceeding the high of approximately US$180 billion in 2021.

Previously, Steno Research said in a report that it expected the price of Bitcoin to rise from about $94,000 to as low as $150,000 in 2025, while the price of ETH will more than double, rising from $3,400 to at least $8 , 000 USD. Namely, the ETH/BTC exchange rate will rise from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 in the next 12 months, similar to the price action of the previous cycle, and altcoins will be the focus of attention.

**El Salvador has increased its holdings of 5 BTC since the New Year and

currently holds approximately 6,009 BTC.**

According to today’s on-chain data, El Salvador has increased its holdings of 5 BTC since the New Year, bringing its total holdings to approximately 6,009 BTC.

**MARA CEO: Will continue to increase its holdings of Bitcoin in 2025,

currently holding over 40,000 Bitcoins**

According to the CEO of Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, it will continue to increase its holdings of Bitcoin on its balance sheet in 2025.

MARA currently holds a total of 44,893 BTC, worth over $4 billion.

**BTC block options on Deribit Buy $97,000 call options on January 10,

totaling 150 BTC**

According to Lin Chen, head of Asia-Pacific business at Deribit, the largest BTC block option today was: a user paid US$559,000 to purchase a US$97,000 call option that expired on January 10 (this Friday), totaling 150 units. BTC.

**Standard Chartered Bank: BTC price will reach $200,000 in 2025,

MicroStrategy will buy more BTC**

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin prices will double. He once said in a report that he expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Additionally, he expects institutional investment in Bitcoin next year to continue at or exceed the pace of 2024. The bank pointed out that since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin purchases from institutions have reached 683,000 Bitcoins, mainly through the US spot Bitcoin ETF and MicroStrategy, a software company and effective alternative for investing in Bitcoin. Geoffrey Kendrick said MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases in 2025 should match or exceed purchases in 2024. He also added that as the incoming Trump administration is expected to reform regulations on digital currency investments by so-called "tradFi" companies, pension funds should also include Bitcoin in their portfolios starting next year through a U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF. in the investment portfolio. Kendrick noted: “Even a small allocation of $40 trillion among U.S. pension funds would significantly drive up Bitcoin prices. If Bitcoin is used by U.S. pension funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWF), or potentially the U.S. Strategic Reserve Fund faster, With adoption, we will be more optimistic.”

In addition, major listed companies are still carrying out their own "Bitcoin holdings accumulation plans" in an orderly manner.

**Blockstream founder: Micro-strategy may have increased holdings of

BTC**

Blockstream founder Adam Back posted: "I believe MicroStrategy has completed the purchase of Bitcoin, but it must be announced to the market through an 8-K filing before or after normal trading hours when the stock market opens."

Previously, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor released Bitcoin Tracker-related information for the ninth consecutive week.

**Stats: 11 public companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings in

the past week**

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted: "According to statistics from HODL15Capital, 11 listed companies have purchased more Bitcoins since last Monday. In 2025, a large number of companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor for a Movement sets the script.”

Metaplanet plans to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 by 2025

As a Japanese listed company that has tasted the benefits of the "Bitcoin Reserve Plan", buying of Metaplanet will also continue.

The company’s CEO Simon Gerovich recently stated that this year’s goal is to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 by leveraging its “most value-added capital market instrument” with the goal of promoting Bitcoin’s popularity in Japan and globally. adoption and “expand Metaplanet’s influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem.”

“We’re not just building a company, we’re building a movement,” Gerovich said.

Compared with the continued growth of buying, after entering 2025, the "smashing force" has also eased to a considerable extent.

Selling pressure eases: both exchange inflows and miner outflows decline

As the main source of selling pressure, exchange inflows and miner outflows have historically been regarded as reliable indicators, and they have also declined significantly recently.

**BTC exchange inflows and miner outflows have dropped significantly

since November 2024, suggesting easing selling pressure**

Bitcoin exchange inflows (the total amount of BTC transferred to exchanges) and miner outflows (the amount of BTC sent by miners to exchanges) have fallen significantly since November 2024, indicating reduced selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC exchange inflows in November 2024 peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, after about two months of highly active exchange inflow activity. In December 2024, BTC exchange inflows decreased but were still considerable, with the total number of Bitcoins sent to exchanges per day ranging from 11,000 to 79,000.

The decrease in exchange inflows was accompanied by a decrease in miner outflows, indicating less selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, who often sell off BTC holdings to cover operating expenses. Outflows from miners have been declining since November when miners profited during Bitcoin 's historic price rise following Trump's election.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that outflows peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, when the price of Bitcoin reached approximately $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to the exchange, on January 2 they sent 5,748 BTC, and on January 3 they sent 2,133 BTC.

The game of macro and micro predictions: Cautious optimists and highly

optimists have different opinions

As for the macro-level predictions and micro-level personal views on the cryptocurrency market, cautious optimism and high optimism currently coexist. There are also traders who believe that they should "sell in time to make a profit and take profit during the swing period."

**Greeks.live: European and American users gradually return from the

holidays, and market popularity picks up**

On January 3, Adam from the Greeks.live Research Institute wrote: “20,000 BTC options expired, and the Put Call Ratio was 0.69. The biggest pain point was US$97,000, with a nominal value of US$1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options expired, and the Put Call Ratio was 0.69. Ratio is 0.81, the maximum pain point is $3,400, and the nominal value is $710 million. Today is 2025. In the first weekly option delivery of the year, a total of US$2.6 billion in options expired. European and American users gradually returned from the holidays, and the overall market enthusiasm rebounded. However, the theme of this week is still adjustment, and the market differentiation is obvious. There has not yet been a more sustained trend. Hotspot.

Later this month, Trump will officially take office as the new president of the United States, and the entire market is very optimistic about expectations for 2025. However, the significant correction in U.S. stocks in recent days has also brought greater uncertainty to the market. There is a high probability that this month’s interest rate meeting will maintain no interest rate cut, and there will be no more positive news for the market in the short term. "

**U.S. investment bank’s perspective: It is expected that the market

value of BTC will reach a quarter of gold by the end of this year, and the price of BTC will exceed US$220,000.**

American investment bank HC Wainwrigh predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach US$225,000 per coin by the end of 2025, which means that the market value of Bitcoin will reach US$4.5 trillion, accounting for approximately 25% of the market value of gold.

**Finance professor: Supportive U.S. regulation will boost BTC, and

price hitting $200,000 is entirely possible**

Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex in the UK, believes that $200,000 in Bitcoin is possible. Carol Alexander noted, "I'm more optimistic than ever about 2025," adding that Bitcoin's price "could easily reach $200,000, but there's nothing to suggest volatility will decrease." Alexander clarified that she I don't actually own any Bitcoin. “By next summer, I expect it to be trading at $150,000 plus or minus $50,000.” Supportive regulation in the U.S. will boost Bitcoin, however, the lack of regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to lead to volatility as High leverage trading will cause prices to fluctuate up and down.

It is reported that Carol Alexander has a good record in predicting Bitcoin prices. Last year, she believed that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, which was indeed the case.

**Mining practitioners: Bitcoin may hit a peak of US$180,000-190,000 in

2025, but there will be occasional sharp corrections**

Youwei Yang, chief economist of cryptocurrency mining company BIT Mining (BTCM), predicts that the price of Bitcoin will be between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025, but he also remains cautious and believes that the price may undergo a correction. .

He noted: “Bitcoin is likely to see significant upward momentum and occasional sharp corrections in 2025. In moments of market shock, such as major stock market crashes, Bitcoin may temporarily fall to about $80,000. However, the overall trend It is expected to keep rising. Based on these dynamics, Bitcoin may reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, which is consistent with historical cycle patterns and the trend of more and more mainstream institutions investing in cryptocurrencies.”

**Ledn Chief Investment Officer: Predicts BTC will hit $160,000 by the

end of this year or early next year**

John Glover, chief investment officer of cryptocurrency lending company Ledn, said Bitcoin could fall back to $89,000 before rebounding to reach $125,000 by the end of the first quarter.

From there, Glover said, Bitcoin could retrace to $100,000 again before hitting $160,000 in late 2025 or early 2026, a prediction that is bigger than asset managers VanEck and Bitwise’s $180,000 and The $200,000 forecast is more conservative.

**Analyst: Bitcoin is expected to remain range-bound and may climb to

$105,000 in January**

Bitfinex analysts predict that Bitcoin could climb to $105,000 in January. Bitfinex analysts said, “We expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound as investors seek to deploy capital across a range of different asset classes. We forecast Bitcoin to trade between 95,000 and 110,000 by the end of January. between U.S. dollars.”

The inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20 could be an important catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new U.S. administration include friendlier cryptocurrency regulatory policies and improved U.S. economic policies. However, Trump’s inauguration may not trigger an immediate price increase for cryptocurrencies, according to Bitfinex analysts. “We expect the new U.S. administration will bring more clarity to cryptocurrency policy, but we do not expect the inauguration itself to be a significant price increase event, but rather to create a path for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. with fewer barriers. The foundation for the road.”

**Placeholder Partner: BTC, ETH, SOL look strong regardless of time

frame**

Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder, wrote: "Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong and will rise again soon."

In addition, it added that, like previous trends, Meme coins over the past few weeks have also become a good indicator of increased risk appetite.

**Founder of 1co nfirmation: Countries are expected to try to adopt

Microstrategy’s strategy to increase their holdings of Bitcoin**

Nick Tomaino, founder of 1co nfirmation, wrote that it is likely that we will soon see countries competing to try to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy:

-Issue government bonds of different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.)

-Buy cryptocurrencies using bonds

-Repay the loan on time according to the loan term

At the same time, it said that the question now is not whether countries will do this, but what kind of cryptocurrency they will buy. It may start with BTC, but the next one will be ETH, and any currency with enough decentralization can participate. The government bond market is larger than the stock market.

Negative put and trading take-profit: mature views from well-known

investment research institutions and well-known traders

Compared with the optimistic attitude towards BTC, the market’s views on ETH and altcoins are relatively rational. Here we select some of the more representative views to display.

**10x Research: ETH is expected to underperform BTC again in 2025, not

optimistic about Pectra upgrade**

Markus Thielen, director of research at 10x Research, said in a recent market report: “While the possibility of new catalysts cannot be ruled out, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to achieve a meaningful rebound in 2025. While we understand Ethereum's volatility, we believe it is still a poor mid-term investment and expect ETH to grow by 2025 Will underperform BTC again this year, so our stance on Ethereum remains clear: ‘avoid’.”

Thielen said that one of the most interesting metrics to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he pointed out that the 1-month growth rate of Ethereum validators has turned negative, falling by approximately 1% in the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increased risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen said the increase in unstaking seemed “logical” and he believed Ethereum lacked “real demand” beyond staking.

He also claimed that last March’s Ethereum Duncan upgrade, which lowered the network’s gas fees and allowed it to process more transactions, was “six months late” and missed the peak of the Meme coin’s rally, causing the market to “turn around.” A "more cost-effective" alternative to Solana. He is also skeptical about the Pectra upgrade scheduled to be launched in early 2025. “Of the 19 upgrades to date, only two have had a clear positive impact on the ETH price, and these upgrades all occurred during the Bitcoin bull market.” He Added: “Ethereum’s three major catalysts in 2024 have basically failed, and overall they have brought little value.”

**Senior trader: Trump’s inauguration may be a key trigger for crypto

markets to regain bullish momentum**

Senior cryptocurrency trader The Crypto Dog recently stated that the cryptocurrency market may not experience significant fluctuations before President-elect Trump is inaugurated on January 20. It speculates that this political event may become a key trigger for renewed bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. He believes that Bitcoin and altcoins may remain stagnant until the inauguration, mirroring market behavior in previous election cycles. According to its analysis, historical patterns show that Bitcoin tends to rise after a new U.S. president takes office. In 2021, shortly after President Biden was inaugurated, Bitcoin rose by more than 100%. Likewise, Bitcoin saw a major breakout around the time of the 2017 inauguration.

Despite these observations, he also acknowledged that his predictions could be overturned if stocks, especially the S&P 500, continue to rise. It emphasized that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, suggesting that continued stock market strength may lead to a more optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in January.

It is worth mentioning that there are still about two weeks until Trump takes office, and the market situation shows that Trump-related concept coins have generally risen.

**Analysis: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has

decreased by 18,530 in the past two months**

Ali, an on-chain analyst, shared Glassnode data and said: “In the past two months, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530.”

Odaily Planet Daily believes that this move may mean that more retail investors will withdraw from the market and the BTC chip holding structure will be further concentrated.

**Trader Eugene: As the bull market enters the second half, a better

strategy is to cash out at high frequency**

Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio wrote that as we enter the second half of this cycle, the strategy that should be adopted is to sell more frequently rather than hold for the long term.